Do you trust FiveThirtyEight without Nate Silver?
nymag.com
Article from a few weeks ago, but now that G. Elliott Morris is taking over without Nate's models, I'm curious what lemmy's think about political polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight?
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My trust in him dropped after being exposed to his activity on twitter. It seemed like he had a habit of trying to apply his knowledge to things he didn't understand or where he was missing the point. I'm no longer on twitter and can't remember specific examples, so it may have been more that that format did not work for him.
I remember him having some weird COVID takes. Statistically we should just get out there because only a few of us would die. He seemed to think it was odd that people were staying in for no reason. That completely missed the point that if your family is the statistic, it just fucks your whole life up.
Heh, I remember thinking, statistically, he's probably not wrong for a population but that completely missed the prisoner's dilemma of making sure you're not the statistic.
Agree! This describes my experience exactly. On a related note about format, I thought Jody Avirgan, Five Thirty Eight's podcast producer early on, was a good foil for him, drawing him into conversation and occasionally pushing back on points that sounded wild or tone deaf.