Megapost! Michigan Primary, 2/27!
Tonight is the Michigan primary and unlike previous primaries where we were specifically paying attention to the REPUBLICAN side, this one has an interest on the DEMOCRATIC side as well!
Michigan has a significant population of people with Middle Eastern or North African heritage:
"Biden narrowly won Michigan in 2020 by some 150,000 votes -- less than half of the amount of people in the state who cited Middle Eastern or North African ancestry in the 2020 census."
Going into this primary, there is a movement to convince these folks to vote "Uncommitted" rather than for Biden in order to send a message over his policies for Gaza and Israel.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68409546
Of course, the last time we saw a similar move was in the Nevada Republican primary where Nikki Haley was running effectively unopposed. Trump supporters, voting in the caucus rather than the primary, were encouraged to vote "None of these candidates" in the primary.
That result?
None of These Candidates - 50,763 - 63.3%
Nikki Haley - 24,583 - 30.6%
Mike Pence - 3,091 - 3.9%
Tim Scott - 1,081 - 1.4%
John Castro - 270 - 0.3%
Will the "Uncommitted" push in Michigan be as successful as the 2:1 showing for "None of the Above" in Nevada?
Stay tuned!
Edit 99% Democrats reporting, Biden and Trump projected as the winners, no surprise.
Uncommitted Democrats - 101,100 - 13.3%
99% Republican ballots counted.
Uncommitted - 33,404 votes - 3%
So across both parties, around 134,000 or so "uncommitted".
The percentage is more important, and it's basically the same size as 2012 which is the appropriate comparison (2016 and 2020 had other, viable candidates to vote for).
Numbers are higher... But that's the issue isn't it? Seems to me an even larger portion of voters came out to "anti-protest" the protest voters too.
The percentage is also significantly higher than 2012, but again, it's not more important.
Here are the numbers for 2012:
Uncommitted - 20,833 - 10.69%
The point being that election after election the number of uncommitted Democrats hovers around 20,000... Until this year...
100,960 - 13.3%
(95% counted)
5x the number of votes, +3% at the poll.
You have to go back to 2008 to see a similar result, which was another protest vote due to DNC shenanigans removing just about anyone not Hillary from the ballot.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary
2000 - 0 - 0% (Caucus, not primary)
2004 - 497 - 0.30% (Caucus, not primary)
2008 - 238,168 - 39.61%
2012 - 20,833 - 10.69%
2016 - 21,601 - 1.79%
2020 - 19,106 - 1.20%
2024 - 100,960 - 13.3%
You can't honestly tell me 39% is closer to 13% than 10%. 3% is not significant, it's an error margin on a poll.
The significant part is the absolute numbers, but that comes with caveat that the Biden vote was 3x Obama's in 2012 (and is 80% of the vote, which is a little less because of unviable candidates so unfortunately there's a little muddying).
Honestly, the whole thing is kinda proving to me the pro-palestine movement still isn't really big in the US despite the optics. Or, at the very least, there's still a large pro-Israel contingent that dwarfs them. And probably why Biden's been ignoring them.
We aren't talking about 2008 because that's an anomaly due to DNC asshattery.
From 2012 forward, the numbers are consistent... until this year.
But you did say 2008, you said it was a "similar" result. I'm not going to contest the anomalous nature, but the result itself is not similar at all!
My point is that I don't agree, the numbers are only consistent for 2016/2020 (because turns out most people won't waste time with an uncommitted vote when there's a viable opposition candidate: Bernie). 2012 is a deviation and in the same way this primary did. The only thing different is the absolute number of votes altogether (in a state that has had insignificant population growth mind).
Similar in that the electorate was driven to protest, but for different reasons.