We’ve been due for a recession since 2020–the drastic pullback for several months at the onset of COVID was hardly a “recession,” more like a blip. I’ve finally stopped saying it’s imminently going to happen, which maybe means it’s going to happen now.
It's bad economics to dismiss a recession as if it didn't happen just because it wasn't as severe as you would like. Many recessions are mild and little more than a "blip", that's completely normal and ignoring them will only lead you to faulty conclusions about what is actually going on with the economy.
My comment was mostly intended as a joke (like me being bullish is going to make the market move in the other direction), but I do think that what happened in 2020 was artificially can-kicked down the road by unprecedented government intervention in the market. So it’s less of a “severe as I’d like” scenario and more of a “curtailed by massive global intervention in the economy.” Maybe that staved it off forever and we will have a soft landing? Possible, but I don’t think so.
We’ve been due for a recession since 2020–the drastic pullback for several months at the onset of COVID was hardly a “recession,” more like a blip. I’ve finally stopped saying it’s imminently going to happen, which maybe means it’s going to happen now.
It's bad economics to dismiss a recession as if it didn't happen just because it wasn't as severe as you would like. Many recessions are mild and little more than a "blip", that's completely normal and ignoring them will only lead you to faulty conclusions about what is actually going on with the economy.
My comment was mostly intended as a joke (like me being bullish is going to make the market move in the other direction), but I do think that what happened in 2020 was artificially can-kicked down the road by unprecedented government intervention in the market. So it’s less of a “severe as I’d like” scenario and more of a “curtailed by massive global intervention in the economy.” Maybe that staved it off forever and we will have a soft landing? Possible, but I don’t think so.