Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.

cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 88 points –
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
natesilver.net
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That's all the media can do nowadays. It's a bunch of journalism graduates twiddling their fingers while cranking out endless "Read the Tea Leaves!" type articles. Everything nowadays is "survey says this", "polls say that", "model says this", "odds predict this or that". It's literally everywhere from sports to politics to the stock market, it requires zero thought or in-depth analysis, and it's both a response to and a cause of the decline in mainstream and investigative journalism. It's team-based tribalism through and through.