Donald Trump's chances of winning election slump after RNC speech

mozz@mbin.grits.dev to politics @lemmy.world – 341 points – Donald Trump's chances of winning election slump after RNC speech
newsweek.com

I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative

inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc

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I’ve been tracking the odds on Betfair. They have moved from 1.54 to 1.58 (decimal odds, 1 is dead cert, 2 is 50/50), so very marginally less likely Trump win. ‘Slumped’ they have not.

Harris is at 5.4 and Biden way behind at 15.5.

Where are you looking and when did it say it was updated?

Here's what I see on Betfair; updated as of July 13th it says:

  • Donald Trump = 1.654/6 = 1.28 decimal = 78% win
  • Joe Biden = 10.09/1 = 11.1 decimal = 9% win
  • Kamala Harris = 5.69/2 = 3.85 decimal = 26% win

(Note they sum to more than 100%, because of the "house cut" nonreciprocal nature of the odds)

If there are more recently updated numbers that now say 1.58 decimal, that would mean the odds of Trump winning have dropped from 78% to 63%. I'd say that's a fuckin slump.

(Also note - that doesn't mean they think Biden has a 10% chance of winning if he stays in. It means the chance he will stay on as the nominee times the chance he will win in the election is 10% -- although looking at their odds for who the D nominee will be, it looks like they also think he has a lower chance of winning than Kamala, if he is the nominee.)

Just from my own screenshots yesterday and today. I have a couple of really small bets in play.