I'm very curious how this is going to play out. This mostly concerns the core userbase, as in mods and the people who are the most active on Reddit. If a significant portion of those wanders off (or is straight up banned), I could see the platform desolate slowly and painfully.
I mean, they lose content and moderation. I would be very surprised if they can replace the volunteers and still maintain the quality of the moderation.
Enshitification doesn't happen over night. It might be months before the needle moves. Platforms die because users seek alternatives, but everyone has a different threshold for when they decide to jump ship. Most people just are not paying attention and will only leave when they experience the shit of Enshitification first hand.
And that hasn't happened on Reddit. Yet...
July 1st will probably bring another bunch of people across.
I left reddit when the subs blacked out. My wife is a RIF user, but has continued to use it. She's said she's leaving when RIF stops working. I bet a bunch of users will leave when "reddit" stops working.
I also think reddit is still the overwhelmingly greatest source of human-written information and discussion on the planet. That will take a while to replace.
I have tried googling for things without adding on "reddit" these past two weeks, and it's... not good.
Try a different search engine, like kagi. It's paid but it's worth it.
Idk their example search for "python exceptions" has the #14 link for Ruby exceptions, #15 for C++ exceptions, #17 for Make exceptions (no mention of the word python in this one).
It seems like many of the links at this point have zero mentions of the word "python" at all. Why are people paying for this?
Idk why you're seeing that, I'm not.
Anyway their focus is quality over quantity. The first 13 results should have given you whatever you needed. There's always junk at the end of searches.
I did not consider that, thanks for the perspective.
Twitter had to kill 3rd party apps twice in order for the mastodon migration to happen. First they did it in 2011 and then again after Elon bought the company.
I imagine a true Twitter > Mastodon level migration away from Reddit won't happen yet. But once they inevitably dump old.reddit.com, it might.
My guess is that Reddit loses about 5% of traffic by shutting off API access. It isn't great, but it isn't bad either. Spez treats it as a win.
Mod burnout becomes a big thing in a year, with many major subs starting to lock threads and blanket ban harder as the more experienced mods leave and the new set isn't really prepared to handle the workload. A lot of the best of this new block are going to be alt-right, and you'll slowly see subs become more friendly to alt-right views. Mod abuse gets a lot worse.
As the entire site becomes r/conservative, expect the fights that happened with r/The_Donald to be worse and make the site more unusable. This will probably drive off more users as "everything is political". Reddit won't keep its promises on building better mod toolkits, and a lot of LBGT groups leave for other sites.
As the website starts to see a shrinking user base and still hasn't made money, either Spez or a successor goes full Twitter Musk and cuts staff to the bone in hopes of trying to keep some revenue.
Good observation about how enshittification tends to come with a drift to the far right. At the moment one of the refreshing things about Lemmy is that you can have a discussion in peace without all those people piling in. I hope this can last.
I'm very curious how this is going to play out. This mostly concerns the core userbase, as in mods and the people who are the most active on Reddit. If a significant portion of those wanders off (or is straight up banned), I could see the platform desolate slowly and painfully.
I mean, they lose content and moderation. I would be very surprised if they can replace the volunteers and still maintain the quality of the moderation.
Enshitification doesn't happen over night. It might be months before the needle moves. Platforms die because users seek alternatives, but everyone has a different threshold for when they decide to jump ship. Most people just are not paying attention and will only leave when they experience the shit of Enshitification first hand.
And that hasn't happened on Reddit. Yet...
July 1st will probably bring another bunch of people across.
I left reddit when the subs blacked out. My wife is a RIF user, but has continued to use it. She's said she's leaving when RIF stops working. I bet a bunch of users will leave when "reddit" stops working.
I also think reddit is still the overwhelmingly greatest source of human-written information and discussion on the planet. That will take a while to replace.
I have tried googling for things without adding on "reddit" these past two weeks, and it's... not good.
Try a different search engine, like kagi. It's paid but it's worth it.
Idk their example search for "python exceptions" has the #14 link for Ruby exceptions, #15 for C++ exceptions, #17 for Make exceptions (no mention of the word python in this one).
It seems like many of the links at this point have zero mentions of the word "python" at all. Why are people paying for this?
Idk why you're seeing that, I'm not.
Anyway their focus is quality over quantity. The first 13 results should have given you whatever you needed. There's always junk at the end of searches.
I did not consider that, thanks for the perspective.
Twitter had to kill 3rd party apps twice in order for the mastodon migration to happen. First they did it in 2011 and then again after Elon bought the company.
I imagine a true Twitter > Mastodon level migration away from Reddit won't happen yet. But once they inevitably dump old.reddit.com, it might.
My guess is that Reddit loses about 5% of traffic by shutting off API access. It isn't great, but it isn't bad either. Spez treats it as a win.
Mod burnout becomes a big thing in a year, with many major subs starting to lock threads and blanket ban harder as the more experienced mods leave and the new set isn't really prepared to handle the workload. A lot of the best of this new block are going to be alt-right, and you'll slowly see subs become more friendly to alt-right views. Mod abuse gets a lot worse.
As the entire site becomes r/conservative, expect the fights that happened with r/The_Donald to be worse and make the site more unusable. This will probably drive off more users as "everything is political". Reddit won't keep its promises on building better mod toolkits, and a lot of LBGT groups leave for other sites.
As the website starts to see a shrinking user base and still hasn't made money, either Spez or a successor goes full Twitter Musk and cuts staff to the bone in hopes of trying to keep some revenue.
Good observation about how enshittification tends to come with a drift to the far right. At the moment one of the refreshing things about Lemmy is that you can have a discussion in peace without all those people piling in. I hope this can last.