Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.

cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 88 points –
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
natesilver.net
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This is a perfectly succinct, textbook example of Outcome Bias.

Betting $1 with a 1 in 3 chance to win $2 is objectively a bad idea; the odds are against you. It doesn't stop being a bad idea if you win the $2 after 1 bet.

Nothing like one person being right and another being wrong in bringing the amateur philosophers out.