2024 US House Races Megapost!

jordanlund@lemmy.worldmod to politics @lemmy.world – 80 points –

I'm not even going to TRY to list out all 435 House Races, but let's keep the discussion on that here.

Google election results is showing:

218 R / 208 D with 218 needed for majority. We likely won't know the full result for several days.

9 races left to call.

CA 9 - Leaning Democratic
CA 21 - Leaning Democratic
ME 2 - Leaning Democratic
OH 9 - Leaning Democratic
OR 5 - Leaning Democratic - Called by local media.

AK 1 - Leaning Republican
CA 13 - Leaning Republican
CA 45 - Leaning Republican
IA 1 - Leaning Republican

Looks like it's going to end up 222 R to 213 D.

Particularly notable will be any flips from D to R or R to D.

Currently, the makeup of the House is:

https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown

220 Republicans
212 Democrats
3 Vacancies

Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) resigned effective 04/25/2024.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) died 07/19/2024.

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) died 08/21/2024.

If the Republicans lose just 5 seats, control will flip from them, back to the Democrats with a majority of 217 to 215. Not even counting the three vacancies.

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If a supermajority of Democrats is achieved in the House of Representatives, what benefits can there be?

Not much because anything that starts in the House then moves to the Senate.

So, say you get a 290 vote super majority on a new Constitutional Amendment, it then has to go to the Senate which is likely to flip Republican and kill anything the House proposes.

So for the supermajority to be effective, the Democrats must also have the Senate and 26 states must be Democratic for the constitutional amendment to become a reality. Right?

For an Amendment you need 38 states to ratify it. So every state that voted for Biden + 13 Trump states.