They got the bodies out of the combat zone, but propably do tell the families their loved ones are missing and do not return the body, but burry it in Ukraine.
MrMakabar
0 Post – 40 Comments
Joined 1 years ago
Foreign policy needs consensus. So the EU can not force Germany to do anything in terms of foreign policy.
According to the Estonian intelligence service Russia can train 50k soldiers every 6months. That is something less then 300soldiers per day. In other words Russia can not replace these sorts of losses with properly trained soldiers.
Russian men losses are approaching US losses in WW1.
Unlikely. Germany most likely is not going to recognice Palestine for a long time.
Not quite so. Last time Putin mobilized that cause mass migration and some limited protests. In the mean time some mercenaries went on a day trip to Moscow and he still does not call the war in Ukraine a war.
In other words it is not obvious that Putin can just call more Russian men to the front on a large scale, without causing trouble for himself.
They can do that, but without proper training losses will go up. Even this is mental. Right now Russia is at something like 700k boys being born in a year. This is completely unsustainable over years. Especially with a lot of young people having fled conscription.
The problem is that once you take assets from Russian oligarchs for being aholes, it becomes much easier to do the same for our local rich aholes as well.
In 2010 North Korea shelled a South Korean island and about a quarter of the shells turned out to be duds. A lot of the rest proved to be extremly inaccurate. That is not to say they are not a danger, but they are most certainly much worse then new NATO shells. That is not even talking about range.
The artillery situation already turned from Russian dominance to it being fairly balanced with Ukraine having a slight supremecy in some regions. It looks like highly accurate systems like PZH-2000 combined with artillery radar are slowly but surely taking out so much Russian artillery that they are depleting their stockpiles.
As for manpower Russia has basicly a three to one advantage, but Ukranians seem to be more willing to fight and Russia has to pull them from the weakest in society. Otherwise Putin is threatend by a coup.
Russia will start to have really big problems as soon as the oil price falls.
The intressting question here is why does Putin need a win. The US is out of money to support Ukraine, since the Republicans are blocking support. Russia has done a good job lasting out the Ukranian summer offensive. So why can Putin not wait for half a year, let Ukraine attack and the US support blow up and then attack say next summer.
That imho is the real question here.
It actually is even worse for Russia. The oil price has fallen recently as the US has been increasing production like crazy. At the same time it looks like the EU has lowered oil consumption a decent bit. If Chinas oil consumption does not grow a lot, which is very much possible, that means the Russia budget deficit is going to increase.
Both are wrong and right in a way. Russia is spending a lot on weapons and the war. That obviously means a lot of jobs in weapons factories and as soldiers. Due to labour shortages Russian workers can ask for more money and Russias economy is unequal enough, that the factory have to and can pay for it. Also Russian soldiers earn rather well these days. Therefore a lot of Russians are not only not suffering, but their quality of life is improving. When you live in a village in Siberia without running water, no washing machine and a Soviet car getting $30k is a huge improvment for your life.
At the same time less workers due to soldiers being drafted and people fleeing from the draft causes problems for the rich. They also suffer from the sanctions the most.Then you have high inflation and with worker shortages and propably more drafting that means a wage-price spiral is possible. That is wages go up, which makes products more expensive, which drives inflation, which then makes workers ask for wage raises and so on and so forth. Also the oil price, which is Russias largest export is falling, so less foreign exchange is available for imports, further increasing inflation. The war also does not come cheap. Russia has worked against it with higher taxes, which again means more inflation and selling assets. Especially the later is a huge potential futher problem. There also is a cut in infrastructure spending and a lot of oil and gas infrastructure towards the EU has become useless. Again that is a slow acting poison.
What it boils down to is many if not most Russians have a better life due to the war, but the rich suffer a lot. Obviously they have nothing to complain about or they can not complain anymore. At the same time the future of Russia as a country is being sold for the war. If Russia does not win the war, that means a long term weaker Russia. However do not hold your breath, they are not having a revolution.
To make nukes the key part is not the power plant, but the enriching of uranium. To the best of my knowledge Ukraine has no enrichment plants.
There is a massive storm in the region right now and it was also going on yesterday. So a propably a lot of deaths from the weather rather then from fighting.
Worth a mention are 250,000 155mm shells added to the too be delivered part of the list.
The solution is to take away Hungary's voting right in the EU. That sucks, but it is desperately necessary not just due to Russia, but also China. Without EU funds Orban has a massive problem.
The Sovjetunion was a multi cultural country, but Russia itself is 80% Russian and then you have a 4% Taras and 2.2% Ukranians. The rest are at the 1% mark. Most are well within Russian territory. Basically the only place Russia could really loose land is in the Caucasus. So Russia is not going to fragment unless there is a civil war going on.
Russia collapsing would mean Ukraine and very likely Belarus moving towards the EU and NATO. Russian influence in Central Asia would propably be replaced with China and the West would move left again, as Russia stops supporting far right Kremlin parties.
I gurantee you NATO has those plans as well only to be able to react quickly, if Russia does something. They would be modified, but it would be a usefull bases. So the question is if Putin wants to invade and that is less likely.
Uranium for power plants normally has a 3-5% U235 contet, whereas weapons grade uranium has to be at least 20% U235 to build a somewhat realisitc nuke, but that would way a few hundred kg. So you usually go for above 80%.
Any dumb person knows that and the Ukranians are not that dumb.
US estimates for Ukraine until August were 70kdead and 100k-120k wounded. So 170k-190k casualties. Other stuff can be found on oryx or similar platforms.
Putin has to keep Western support down and the best way of doing that is to have victories and denying Ukraine victories. It currently looks like the US is lowering support for Ukraine a lot. So that is helpfull. If Trump wins, that support is gone. From a European point of view Spain and Italy are not sending much support these days, the Netherlands who were a large supported just had a Putin puppet win a large number of seats and Hungary is blocking EU aid right now as well. Without that aid Ukraine is going to loose the war. Maybe it is enough for him to break throu later.
The problem with that is that Bejing makes it very clear that declaring independence would lead to an invasion of Taiwan. So for a long time most Taiwanese rather did want to keep the current basically independent status quo. However support for unification was low since Taiwan became a democracy. Since the Hong Kong protests and the extraction bill polls for independence show a majority supporting it though.
Also Palestine has a seat on the table, just no vote, as a observer of the UN without being a member.
Because Twitter is a very different service to all the bigger ones. The limit on the length of tweets means, that the messages posted have to be to the point, hence they are easy to quote by news of all sorts. That attracts politicans, CEOs and somewhat celbreties to the site, who want to be in the news and it becomes a self enforcing cycle. The eleven larger ones focus either on direct messaging like WhatsApp, Telegram and so forth or have none text media as their dominant form of content like Instagram, YouTube and TikTok.
Propably more of doing Xi a solid, so he does not kill Tesla in China.
Those parties are in the current Spanish government. Also the issue of independence is talked about less. Hence this is possible.
and every time the Ukranians take back the land, they run into a minefield. Great tactics.
In WW2 Russia was in a war and not a special military operation.
Spain has grown faster then Germany for most of the last decade(besides 2020). Out of PIIGS Portugal and Ireland also have done pretty well. Greece got hit hard and Italys economy has problems since the 90s(aka not a EU/Euro problem).
Also Norway is not an EU member.
Turns out mainly Rwandan and Russian women:
Correct on a per capita bases Portugal has been growing much much faster then Germany. The simple truth it that Germany is not benefiting from austerity either. What should happen is that the German government massively increases spending. This would turn Germany from a net exporter, to a net importer. That allows the PIIGS to export products to Germany paying down the debt, but it also stimulates the economy. Germany profits from the increased spending as well.
The simple truth is that German life expectancy is declining since a couple of years(being below Spain, Italy and Portugal btw). Median wealth of Italy, Spain and Portugal is higher then that of Germany, which is only slightly higher then that of Greece. Real wages in Germany have gone up by 3.8% over the last decade(not annually but the entire decade).
The only ones who really profit from this austerity are the super rich. Other then that it is as bad a policy for Germany as it is for Italy, Portugal, Spain or Greece.
Right now most support for Ukraine comes from European countries and not the US. The biggest single donor is the EU and its members donate even more individually. I can see Ukraine having a problem going offensive, but the support should be enough to not be overrun.
That is if Trump is elected, which is not a given. After all Biden has won an election against Trump before.
Even if Trump gets elected and Russia invades, the EU is far from being weak. The EU has more soldiers then Russia, with a bigger population, which are better equiped and a much bigger economy. Adding that to your enemies list is just dumb. Not that Russia is the brightest.
Casualties are soldiers which are unable to fight. That includes badly wounded soldiers, which actually make up most of them. You generally are talking about a third of them actually being dead, so 1/1200. However when you can no longer fight, you are a cripple and that is also hard to hide.
Russia currently has 6.5% inflation with 15% interest rate. The only reason the economy is not falling is massive government spending and that is based on oil money. As soon as you remove that Russia has to make really hard economic choices and it seems like they are increasing anti protest units right now. We have seen what happend with Wagner. More armed men in the country and an unhappy population makes Putins collapse more likely. Having problems at the front even more so and Russian losses are very high right now, if Ukranian figures are somewhat accurate.
Thats just what happens with dictatorships. They cover up small problems until there are enough of them and they have a massive crisis. Democracies have small problems talk about them and that avoids massive crisis for the most part. However it is hard to tell what caused the collapse in the end as it always has multiple reasons.
Russian gas exports are down a lot, due to Russia cutting gas flows to the EU and not really having a good alternative.
For oil we already see prices falling. The high price due to supply cuts by OPEC+ has lead to mainly the US increasing its oil production. Bidens Inflation reduction act, as well as the EU banning fossil fuel cars and Chinas continued push for EVs are going to lower consumption in those regions or in case of China lower growth. That is slowly but surely destroying that market as well. However it is important to say that renewables are not really the technology to look at. The more important ones are public transport and EVs for oil and heat pumps for gas.
It would be number 17, but the list only goes to 15.
There are a few ways of going about it. One is third parties. If you vote for the Green Party for example, you get voting reform, anti genocide policies and a much better enviromental policy. At the same time Biden is still much better then Trump and being realistic about what you can get should also be part of voting strategy. Also it is incredibly important to say, that citizenship does not end at the ballot box. You got to and can do more to influence politics. So I would probably vote Biden in a swing state and Green Party in an state, which is not a swing state. This matters in two ways. Firstly the more people vote third party, the more likely they can get into some actual power, but also the Democrats see that they can gain potential votes, by improving policies.
Also no lesser evil has to be distinguised from compromise and deals. If you get an actual improvement out of doing something, it can be worth doing even at a price. So if two countries face a powerfull invader, it can be worth making a deal that country A gets 40% of the invaders land and country B also 60%, if country B is already stronger for example. In that case both get something out of it. However without the alliance both would probably fail. In this case the question is, if Biden would actually net improve the US compared to today.
If only Germany would not be willing to recognice Palestine, then this might happen, but that is not the case. France and Italy the two next most powerfull countries do not recognice Palestine either.
Germany is usually fairly happy with the current state of the EU. The things Germany wants to change are usually also supported by Spain and that means blackmail is harder. The only exaption to that is finance. However Spain is not going to let billions go to waste to have Palestine recogniced. That is just more of a symbol, rather then massivly important.
Also Germany leaving the EU would cause some massive problems in other EU countries as well. They would hardly be cheering for it.
Oil companies usually do not, but electricity companies do. The problem is that oil companies are great in geology, drilling and chemistry. Geothermal is a similar skill set and chemistry can be used in other products, but the first is small business and the other not renewable nexessarily.
280 chars for the free version and 4000, when you gift money to the Technoking of Tesla(the real title of the Musk)
Just to say it the Lower Saxony example is not quite correct. The situation is that they started using Solaris a Unix system in the 90s in the tax department. When Solaris was no longer really developed, they opted to switch to Linux, as it was easier to migrate. However to unify German states tax departments, the previous state government opted to move to Windows. However the migration has so far failed. Mainyl due to the systems never having been designed for Windows in the first place. The other large user of Linux in Lower Saxony is the police and although they migrated from Windows to save some money, they too had problems migrating back as it was just too difficult.
That is just the reality of it. Software is sticky and once you migrate it often stays. Even when politicans do not like that.