I'm laughing that I submit 2 different focus groups of undecided voters saying the opposite and it's down-voted into oblivion.

But this copium is upvoted...

A big part of this decision is happening right now at Camp David with his family, according to the article:

President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David on Sunday, following a nationally televised debate Thursday that left many fellow Democrats worried about his ability to beat former President Donald trump in November, according to five people familiar with the matter.

Let's face reality:

• Biden is TEN POINTS nationally below where he was at this time in 2020.
• Biden is losing in every single battleground state.
• Biden is losing a large chunk of black and Hispanic voters compared to his 2020 run.
• Biden's aggregate approval ratings for Presidency are 37.7% with 56.7% disapproval.

.... Biden asked for that debate because he was desperate to break the downward trend and reach these battleground swing-state voters. That backfired in the worst possible way.

The time is now, before the convention, and with enough time for an alternative candidate to be selected and ramp up campaigning. There are half a dozen candidates who fit the bill and have a semi-national profile, are YOUNGER, and have enough charisma and debate skills to beat Trump — almost by default by being a fresh face and younger

Anyone who says there isn't enough time doesn't understand just how much FREE viral media attention this would all receive. Every single person should be pushing for this to happen now. Because if Biden makes another gaffe like this in October or a medical emergency, then we are REALLY fucked.

I would, too, but there are a lot of insane people in America these days my friend.

There's something to be said for browsing TV. Having favorites channels and recalling between two different shows between commercials. Sucks if commercials were synced.

Like, some films I wouldn't put on voluntarily but I'd watch if I caught it on you know? Also found a lot of new stuff I wouldn't have otherwise seen.

I'm as flabbergasted as anyone that polls are this close but here we are. Right-wing media controls the narrative and has had a stranglehold on this country. The polls don't lie; they're the canary in the coal mine sounding the alarm. So let's face it: there is no datapoint you can point to that Biden where Biden isn't doing significantly-worse compared to his 2020 campaign. I don't give a fuck how you try to spin it, that's not a good sign. Face hard truths of reality. The propaganda of the right is working with key voting groups whether we like it or not.

Neither cold nor stutter causes someone to jump from abortion to immigration mid-sentence and routinely lose their train of thought. How much experience do you have being around old people? My wife and I work in a hospital, but shit you should he able to relate with grandparents in their 80s. It could even be sundowning. I also don't believe your 3rd point is doing you any favors. Biden campaigned on being a fighter to push the bully back. If he can't hold his own as an 81-year-old, then that is very clearly a problem. Someone as experienced as Biden should easily be able to hold their own in a debate, being in politics as long as he has.

Look, I voted for Biden once and if it comes down to it I'd vote for a corpse over Trump. But as I've said over and over again: it's not me you have to convince. The 2020 election was won by 40,000 votes across 3 states. And as I said, by every single metric, Biden is performing far worse than then. Not good. I hate to say it but I'd bet against Biden winning now.

Biden asked for the debate out of desperation to reach voters. They set most of the rules. Both campaigns signed off on the rules. It backfired tremendously, irreparably.

It's cute. But this is, of course, a given. And we don't expect Hitler to do the right thing. We expect Biden to.

Yeah hubris probably isn't the way to go when you're losing in national polls 10 pts below where you were in 2020 at this time... And you're losing in every battleground state... And you're losing black and Hispanic voters... And the desperation play of asking for this debate to break the steady decline in polling utterly backfired.

Riddle me this: what if Biden's condition worsens from here until November and it's far past the convention to do anything? He's not getting younger. The bad days, the sundowning will only get worse.

People are itching to vote for anyone but a senile geratric and a criminal geriatric. Give the people what they want.

Reading books. Not audiobooks. Not podcasts. Books.

My parents live with me.

Okay, well, one of them now. They divorced under our roof during covid while my wife was pregnant with our first child. Ah, fun times!

At some point they venture off to hobbies and try to pat themselves on the back with a bit of philanthropy.

Ah yes, right-wing authoritarianism that helped cause mass immigration from regional instability thanks to ignoring climate change and sowing global conflicts... Let's just give the fox the keys to the henhouse.

I mean, are we humans really just this stupid?

Yes, yes we are. I feel your pain. I said it before and I'll say it again: I would personally vote for a corpse, but it's not me you have to convince.

And if I want to be slightly more kind and less impatient, many humans may mean well, but are so woefully uneducated and uninformed that they fall prey for the mass amount of right-wing misinformation from billions of dollars injected into the media-stream.

Been waiting for this. As NK involvement increases with Russia, I was hoping SK involvement ramped up in favor of Ukraine.

Oh I agree, don't get me wrong. But let's be honest: Biden doesn't have the grassroots fundraising that propelled Obama to victory and also gave Bernie a good shot at the primaries for how fringe he was.

Even I who've given loads of money in the past am exhausted by the fundraising calls under Biden and at this point post-debate think it's a wasted investment.

I'm just assuaging concerns about money when you can substitute viral marketing which would naturally come from the unprecedented nature of having an incumbent president step down and endorse some other individual. Months of free coverage.

That's a terrible take. You know why that is?

Because undecided swing-voters in battle-ground states will decide this election on the margins. It's Not you. It's not me. It's those stupid undecided voters that we unfortunately need to cater to, and Joe Biden lost some of those voters in the debate. If the electorate were informed and intelligent, we wouldn't have either of these candidates in the first place.

Reminder that 2020 was decided by something like 40,000 votes thanks to the electoral college.

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/joe-biden-replace-us-elections-2024

All undecided voters in a U.S. swing states focus group hosted by pollster Frank Luntz said President Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee after watching his first presidential debate against former President Trump.

Newsweek is tabloid-adjacent.

Biden is underperforming his 2020 run by pretty much every metric. It's time to try something different while we still have time.

Exactly!! That's precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn't translate to battleground swing-state voters.

Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there's a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention... And then we're REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.

If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.

Yes, he absolutely can and I'm not the only one who believes it. If you don't think there wouldn't be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you'd be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey -- how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania...? If that's really your concern, after all.

The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we're stuck.

I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn't even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.

That is complete and utter bullshit and smarter minds than me are already advising it, including one of the biggest analysts in the industry, Nate Silver. Here, let me walk you through it:

I've thought this through for quite some time and I think you're missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.

• "We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them."
• "Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead."
• FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
• A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.

It doesn't have to -- nor should it be -- Harris. I can think of half a dozen other candidates with semi-national profiles who could easily surge in polling with such viral media attention following a Biden resignation.

All we know is what doesn't work, and what doesn't work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020. Need I remind you that Biden took this debate out of pure desperation to begin with, and now he's now 2 full steps further back than where he needs to be as my link on battle-ground undecided voters proves.

I've listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers), Washington Week roundtable -- and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:

It is time to try something different.

It's irrelevant if it doesn't actually propel you past the finish-line, though, isn't it? So explain to me how incumbency and the DNC "building itself around" Biden is substantively altering the outcome of, for emphasis:

• Losing large chunks of critical Hispanic & Black Voters (voters who shouldn't be in question to begin with)
• Losing Battleground swing-state voters.
• Losing in national polling versus Trump (where he was ahead in 2020 or at worst even)
• Has aggregate approval ratings in the 30s.

I'll wait.

Next, answer this: Joe Biden is not the nominee yet either, for the convention has yet to happen. Now let's be clear: In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage...?

So at the end of the day, we have high confidence Biden will lose in November 6th if we stay the course. If that's the case, I believe we should take the chance to put someone fresh in and who is younger. That assuages a major concern for 70% of the electorate and reinvigorates people to vote for someone new. As Mehdi Hasan said, "Americans love new shit."

I'm laughing you don't seem to understand how statistics and probability work. But please, DO tell how he was wrong -- I'm going to enjoy this.

But hey, excellent attempt to cop-out of the myriad of other points in my comment, buddy. Can only respond to maybe 10% of a comment but want to try to take down a leading statistician? Okie-dokie!

That would be interesting and I'm frankly open to it.

I don't think people not voting is a big deal because frankly we didn't have a legitimate primary season this cycle anyway. More importantly, if Biden himself voluntarily stepped down and endorsed someone else, then that at least channels those votes through Biden.

I will agree with the longstanding precedent of incumbent-advantage; but I do not see how that shores up support here and in the now. Put it this way: Polls show incumbent advantage is doing fundamentally nothing to put Biden past the numbers he needs in order to cross the finish-line.

And But don't you think Biden's numbers -- steadily declining for months if not years, mind you -- are sort of baked in? Media saturation has taken place, and Biden in the spotlight long enough that projections would suggest nothing will fundamentally change and that these are losing numbers -- yes? So between knowing we will likely lose versus taking the gamble of garnering viral excitement from nominating a younger fresh face, the latter would be better in my view.

Look I'm sorry, but you gave zero response to the damaging statistics I mentioned except to point vaguely toward incumbency which clearly isn't helping enough with the output of those statistics. So can changing candidates do more? I think so.

Now those are utterly meaningless. Incumbency worked so well for Trump, amirite?

I can't believe you can write that with a straight face when he's losing in national polling, losing with battleground state swing voters, and losing large chunks of critical Hispanic and Black voters.

Every single data-point is significantly-worse than Biden's 2020 performance where he won by a whole 40,000 votes in battleground states.

Again, you don't seem to understand the intent of focus groups or why they're used by political campaigns. In a way focus groups are more akin to Case Studies, which are still extremely insightful.

Besides, we already have a broader set of polling data of battleground states, and what we see here is a reflection of those wider, scientific polls that didn't bode well for Joe Biden even pre-Debate.

The mere fact that ANY random sample of undecided voters came away with these views, is downright dangerous.

I need to hold you to some key points, here:

There is fundamentally ZERO data supporting a Biden victory this November. Think about that.

One would agree that while these are not snapshots in time and October surprises can occur, it's certainly not a GOOD sign that Biden is.

For example, we would consider it to be a pretty good sign if Biden was leading in national polling 80% to Trump 20%, correct? Now obviously this doesn't mean something can't change between now and November, but it would certainly correlate with good prospects - agreed?

Now reflect on that fact that national aggregate polling of all reputable national surveys show Biden trails his 2020 performance at the same time By nearly 10%... When you consider 2020 was decided on the margins in battleground states by ~40,000 voters, this is a terrible sign. Especially when specific polling on black and hispanic and swing-voters in these specific battleground states ALSO bodes worse for Biden this time around.

Many people did not vote for Biden; hell in Florida, they didn't even hold the Primaries it went by default to Biden. An uncontested primaries isn't exactly proof people will be upset -- especially when polling data is already telling us the vast majority of the electorate is unhappy with voting for Joe Biden. And call me crazy but I'm not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden. I'm pretty sure they'll vote for anyone else the Democrats appoint.

Joe Biden already is our Sarah Palin. You're struggling to find any conceivable data to support your assertions and you know it.

About 20% of voters say they have not picked a candidate in this year's presidential race, are leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all, according to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Reuters interviewed 15 such voters ahead of Thursday's debate, and they agreed to be interviewed again after the event about whether the debate changed their views.

The data wasn't good before, and it doesn't take a statistician to know they're going to be as-bad or worse than before post-debate. I'll happily take that bet with you and circle back in the coming weeks as state-wide polling proves this.

I disagree. I actually think you'd see a boost.

• Acknowledging age concerns of the electorate = good.

• Running someone fresh that appeals to this American Idol-esque popularity contest = good.

• Running someone Republicans don't have their talking-points fleshed out on = good.

And how, qualitatively, did these focus groups triangulate where undecided voters are on the issue of who to vote for?

To properly employ a focus group, you would first need to poll an appropriate sample size of undecided voters then you target demographics within the sample to gain insight into why they answered their poll as they did.

Isn't it quite probable they did exactly this? They certainly didn't just pull these people off the streets. They had to aggregate undecided voters to begin with, after all.

I think it's reaching for straws to suggest this isn't saying what we already recognize from polling conducted in battleground states.

Edit:

About 20% of voters say they have not picked a candidate in this year's presidential race, are leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all, according to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Reuters interviewed 15 such voters ahead of Thursday's debate, and they agreed to be interviewed again after the event about whether the debate changed their views.

I've thought this through for quite some time and I think you're missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.

• "We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them."
• "Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead."
• FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
• A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.

With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn't the 80s. Elections aren't won on television ads.

All we know is what doesn't work, and what doesn't work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020.

I've listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers) -- and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:

It is time to try something different.

Man I've never seen media like this. I've watched:

• 2 different NYT podcasts
• Jon Stewart's comments
• Kari Couric's discussion.
• NPR's post-debate
• Washington Week's round-table, led by The Atlantic editor-in-chief
• Pod Save America (former Obama/Biden staffers)
• Silver's analysis.

... And the sentiment behind Biden stepping down is vast. Talk behind closed-doors is that US House Democrats are extremely worried about their races given downballot effect.

I think it must be done or I'd absolutely bet on Trump winning in November, sadly.

If they haven't changed their minds yet, then they aren't going to. It's time to try someone different.

Besides, you're not even needing Republican votes. You just need undecided votes and to energize democratic voters who hate both candidates with age being a big factor.

Not to say this falls on deaf ears because I appreciate your actually understanding how scientific surveys work, but as you said yourself: These focus-groups of undecided voters are certainly warning-signs, and if it was flipped around, users would be up-voting this and BIden's campaign would be touting this as a great thing.

I'm all for larger studies being conducted to show the damage done; the question will then be: How will you change your perception on what needs to be done?

And golly, if only we had large sample sizes of populations comparing Donald Trump and Joe Biden in battleground swing-states. If only we could then compare those numbers to their respective numbers in 2020.... That, combined with said focus group insights, sure would be useful! /s

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2024/05/13/new-york-times-presidential-poll-donald-trump-joe-biden-battleground-states

https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/swing-state-polling-may-2024

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-poised-beat-joe-biden-6-key-battleground-states-poll-1904688

And that's just the start, pre-debate no less. I cannot think of a single data-point where Biden isn't doing significantly worse than his 2020 performance. National approval ratings, black/hispanic vote, voter enthusiasm, etc.

I seriously doubt it but I really hope this is a wake-up call for Democrats. I remain convinced that Biden voluntarily stepping down and permitting a younger more charismatic figure in his place will be all that is needed to win, and I say this for a few reasons:

• By the polling, age is a huge issue for a significant majority of Americans, with it clearly harming Biden more.
• Any youthful semi-in-the-shadows candidate will be fresh for Americans, who will be excited for anything different.
• The right-wing talking-points won't be pre-written.
• By Biden & Democrats getting ahead of this and saying, "look we recognize the electorate's concerns and what's at stake and we know the people by large majorities don't want either President, so we're responding," they would get major points.

Call it a reverse-October surprise.

That being said, this is the earliest debate ever and Trump still needs to go through sentencing in July. People won't really remember this debate, but it certainly did not help Biden in any capacity.

The problem is that the people who agree with your statement aren't the ones who we need to convince.

In my view too much is on the line to run Biden. He needs to voluntarily step down where then any younger fresh face that isn't Kamala can win simply by peoples' excitement for something different and youthful.

Biden sucked last night and I have serious concerns about his physical and cognitive faculties to run the country.

But I'm still voting for him for reasons you mentioned.

That won't stop me from advocating for him to step down and put someone else up for the election, but if it comes down to it, I will still vote for Biden.

Are you asking that because you believe nobody is lining up wanting to be President, or that there is no candidate who fits that bill? Because I can think of half a dozen who both fit the bill and have obvious political ambitions:

• Whitmer
• Newsom
• Buttigieg
• Booker
• Abrams
• Warnock.

All far more youthful; all far more charismatic. All who have enough national name recognition and would trounce Trump in debates and contrast of age alone.

The question to me isn't, "who else," it's, "Will Biden voluntarily step down and endorse such a person at the convention?"

The polls prove this could work:nobody likes either candidate, people want new faces, and age is a problem. Just give them another choice on the Democratic ticket and it's game-over for the convicted felon. If I could I'd be money this gives better odds than sticking it out with Biden.

That's a fair point but just consider these points:

• That's an insane polling for someone who has not once threw their hat in the ring and actually campaigned nationally outside of California.

• We're already starting with a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.

• Key to note, Biden's numbers are generally baked in. Everyone knows everything about Biden, and the law of diminishing returns suggests nobody is going to find out something they dont' already know.

• Whereas just the opposite is true with the likes of Whitmer & Newsom: months of viral media attention, actual national campaigns and speeches, debates, interviews -- have the opportunity for someone to familiarize themselves with such alternate candidates and see the contrast of, "Wow, this guy can actually talk coherently and is far younger..." So you have to tell me with a straight face that once committed to be the nominee their name-recognition and approval skyrocket overnight.

• Mentioned weaknesses of candidates can be offset by a VP pick, as they always are.

In truth, we really haven't been through this already. To conclude otherwise is to suggest that Joe Biden is literally the best candidate Democrats can field, which at his age and with his debate performance, is an incredibly low bar.

Everyone owes it themselves to watch the PBS Frontline documentary on the Uvalde response.

Cowardice, gross negligence, and outrageous incompetence.

The only people I had respect for was the BORTAC team that showed up and got the shit going and actually made entry into the room.

Oh right, his just going mid-sentence from abortion to illegal immigration is textbook coherency, amirite?

Like PSA said, "new strategy to pivot from your strongest to your weakest issue!"

Tell me you didn't watch the debate without telling me.

I am right now drafting a message to send to the White House contact form advocating for just this. Will do nothing most likely, but it's my drop in the ocean.