tootoughtoremember

I’m not sure I even prepared myself.

I don't understand this. Were these people not alive in 2016?

Was it this one, from 2017?

There were certainly votes lost in Michigan over Gaza, but even if every single Jill Stein vote was a protest vote (they weren't), it wouldn't have been enough for Harris to carry the state.

The tougher thing to parse is the reason why so many voters seemingly stayed home this cycle. I think there is a very reasonable argument that not enough people were excited about her message, even the base.

It's a lot easier for door knockers, phone bankers, and everyday democrats to talk proudly about their candidate if they can rattle off a list of great things their candidate will do. It's even easier if those great things hit people where they're hurting the hardest or is the moral thing to do (healthcare for the uninsured, ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.). It's a lot tougher to get low propensity voters to show up on the harm reduction argument alone, especially if you brush past where they're hurting or concede too much ground on your moral positions.

The biggest issue for most voters appears to have been inflation and the economy, and while democrats were technically correct to say the rate of inflation has come down and American economic indicators outperformed most other countries in this post-pandemic period, that's all pretty meaningless to someone whose real wage growth didn't keep up with inflation these past few years. The "opportunity economy" and targeted small business tax cuts is a much tougher sell to someone working two+ jobs to get by.

The other issue that dominated the media was immigration. Democrats forfeited their moral position when they offered the republican wishlist border bill earlier this year. The argument that republicans weren't serious on the border because they didn't support the bill fell flat, and instead democrats were (rightly) criticized for abandoning their framing of the issue as a choice between deportation and amnesty, and their previous claims the border wall was racist.

All of that to say, democrats failed to connect with their own base on the issues that make them the party's best messengers. Add Gaza to the list of issues where Harris could have pivoted away from Biden, instead of running into the arms of the Cheneys to chase the mythical moderate republican voter.

Counting to five, too complicated for voters.

Some very broken little boys out there.

Unfortunately there are many. And no matter what their interests are, whether it's sports, video games, or going to the gym, there are right-wing groups who have set up shop to welcome them to their side. They provide them fraternity, an in-group to be part of, share their common interest, and pump a steady stream of misogyny and bigotry to normalize it.

And it worked.

Add it to the pile.

I firmly believe that if any other candidate, in a primary or general election, either republican or democrat, had said this, it would end their campaign.

We have become so accustomed to Trump saying outrageous bullshit, that this will be forgotten in less than a week, and most voters will never even hear about it.

What is this stage set-up? Why is the British PM sitting in the cuck chair?

Twitch disabled the account following the Jan. 6 riot on the US Capitol in 2021 due to “the current extraordinary circumstances and the President’s incendiary rhetoric” before issuing an indefinite suspension two weeks later, according to a Twitch spokesperson.

Guess we'll all just collectively forget about this now that's he's the Republican nominee again ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

Heard this one before. How long before we hear about his extramarital affairs and the abortion he paid for. It's always projection with these assholes.

EDIT: My bad, this guy just paid for his future wife's abortion. Rules for thee and not for me. Slightly different hypocrisy for this guy.

All research and successful drug policy

Shows that treatment should be increased

And law enforcement decreased

While abolishing mandatory minimum sentences

ITV's This Morning thought it would be a good idea to introduce the current PM to Britain's most tattooed mom.

Not sure what Britons are meant to learn about Rishi Sunak, or what yet another Tory government would have in store for them, from his take on sandwiches, coke, or chatting with an OnlyFans model ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

The same flag outside the current house speaker's office?

Speaker Johnson's close ties to Christian right — both mainstream and fringe

Flags associated with acts of treason have been normalized now. Good luck pursuing that investigation for more than just show.

Too late. Linux is going from my hobby project to my primary OS by the time they stop providing Windows 10 updates, if not sooner.

It's almost as if a militarized police force trained to shoot first and shoot to kill shouldn't be in charge of wellness checks, mental health emergencies, or even nonviolent offenses.

In fact, we could use some of the budget assigned to police and use it to train non-violent emergency response teams, since the police won't be doing that work anymore.

If only we had a catchy slogan for it.

Harris has a comfortable lead in the electoral college right now.

As much as I want to buy into this optimism, I'm having trouble equating Harris's marginal lead in the average national polls with a comfortable electoral college lead.

When battleground state polling is within the margin for error for states she needs to win and the no toss-ups map looks like this, you really need to have an abundance of faith in professional poll aggregators' judgement and weightings to feel comfortable.

From the data table at the bottom of this Nate Silver article (below the sports betting), he suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by a +2 to +3 margin in order to have a greater than 50% probability of winning the electoral college. The latest polling from the Silver Bulletin has her at +2.9, just enough to give her "a slight advantage, but with emphasis on slight."

Nothing about this makes me feel comfortable.

For the group railing against Sharia law the loudest, they sure do love to legislate religious beliefs. I guess the real problem was Sharia just wasn't going far enough.

No they don't. How is this octogenarian the best option out of 340 million Americans to beat a septuagenarian with four criminal indictments that amount to over 90 felony charges?

"We're gonna have a little bit of a dialogue of what racist things that Charlie Kirk said."

"I don't know anything about that,"

Not much of a dialogue lol

In the latest version I found of Nate Silver's model (not 538), he has Ohio coming in at 52.4% for Trump and 43.6% for Harris, an 8.8% spread. I did not dig deeper to find the dates or particular polls from Ohio he's basing that on.

However, based on these numbers, he is likely modelling that Trump wins Ohio in 90%+ of outcomes to Harris's <5% of outcomes.

This is the same way he spoke to his model in previous elections. It wasn't that Hillary was expected to win 80-90% of the popular vote or electoral college just weeks before the 2016 election, it was that his model had her winning that percentage of the outcomes when he ran the model.

So they did publish the name of a Neo-Nazi identified on the boat with the Nazi flags, who's the founder of a Neo-Nazi group.

But going as far as to say these known Neo-Nazis are not antifa would be too far.

Cause Neo-Nazis are so often also antifascist...

I am not surprised by this. Given his track record of surrounding himself with Yes-men, this will more than likely be a bad thing. With the possible silver lining of all that campaign money being wasted on legal defense fees, might just be enough to hurt his reelection chances.

But my honest question is, does this not normally happen when a candidate becomes the presumptive nominee?

Who is the Dick Cheney/Liz Cheney constituency though? Whose opinion will be swayed by the former VP of a deeply unpopular administration at its end? Or by a former Congresswoman with a infamous last name?

This is a nice-to-have for Democrats, but is it actually moving the needle with voters? Is it actually changing minds or increasing turnout? Harris and her advisors certainly think so, she's out there campaigning with Cheney actively, but where is the movement in the numbers, cause I'm not seeing it.

Sex work is work. And if it's work, there are customers.

There's probably a long list of reasons to criticize these Trump supporters, including not understanding what this case in particular is about, but being customers of sex work ain't it.

Demonizing customers of sex work maintains the taboo and hurts the movement to legitimize, legalize, regulate, and provide normal employment benefits to sex work.

If Biden was so unelectable that he needed to be replaced immediately before the convention, and if 60%+ of the country thought things were on the wrong track, why would you run a Biden 2.0 campaign?

There was unique opportunity for Harris to thank Biden for his service and pivot. She should have had an answer for what she would have done differently than Biden, how she would have delivered more for Americans (regardless of if that was even possible).

Americans needed to hear Hope and Change, and she tried to sell them the status quo, but with Liz Cheney in her cabinet. Americans chose chaos, because the status quo ain't working for them.

Energize the fucking progressives.

Yes. She could be capitalizing on popular progressive ideas, like healthcare or lowering grocery prices. These ideas have traction with groups beyond just leftists. She could have run an Obama style campaign, rather than be Biden 2.0. Instead we get Cheneys and "opportunity economy" for small business owners.

There are far more progressives than there are conservatives.

Doubt. Gallup has 48% of Americans identifying has Republican or Republican leaning. Unless you're telling me that self identifying Republicans are not conservative, but are in fact made up of mostly "moderates" or secret progressives, I don't know how else you came to this conclusion.

There might even be more progressives than there are moderates.

Also doubt. Where's the data on this?

Don't forget blatant corruption and a refusal to be held to any reasonable code of ethics!

I always thought it was a tbsp of maple syrup a day to take care of a canadian problem

In July, of an election year, in the US? Yes, that's the best you get.

Make a time machine, convince Biden to drop out 8-12 months ago, then you can have your open primary season.

From the article, the cop laments that telecoms are no longer handing over IP addresses when requested. Now police are being forced to obtain search warrants, like they would need to in order to tap your phone or read your mail. This seems like a consistent application of privacy law and a safeguard against law enforcement abuse of power. Seems like an absolute win to me.

The author hopes for a future version of Windows that offers more user control and less interference from Microsoft's software-as-a-service products.

Currently there is zero incentive for Microsoft to do this, and only upside potential to keep doing what they're doing.

You'd need thousands of companies to abandon their dependency on Windows, Office, and the entire Microsoft ecosystem for them to change course now.

And then they'll pretend like they didn't support him all along. That he was a "fringe" candidate that somehow won the nomination and presidency, but was not a true Republican...

/s ?

The President using the armed forces to assassinate a political rival would be immune to prosecution under this ruling.

A President's use of the military is a power granted to them under Article II, Section 2 of the Constitution. In order to prosecute for this hypothetical assassination, they would first need to prove that providing orders as Commander in Chief was somehow an unofficial act.

This is one of the specific examples Sotomayor listed in her dissenting opinion on this ruling.

Pretty sure this post is a Nintendo Switch ad.

I don't disagree with you. They have been militarized with surplus weapons, gear, and vehicles. All of which they were handed with wildly insufficient training, under a system with little to no repercussions for excessive use of force. It's no surprise we're in the situation we are today.

Guys, stop talking to the media, you're making our expensive strategists look bad. We really want to campaign with republicans and we don't need your dissenting opinions out there to make it harder for us to do again next time.

His motives are still "under investigation".

His political activities include social media comments that "appear to reflect antisemitic and anti-immigration themes" and "espouse political violence". Pretty shit political beliefs, if you want to call them that.

As a high propensity voter, and former young person, I too remember being offended by this insinuation. However, the data on the 18-29 voting block shows generally lower turnout and has remained largely unchanged within my lifetime.

You don't deserve these down votes.

• Hillary lost despite winning the popular vote by a +2% spread
• Biden won with a 4.5% spread in the popular vote
• Obama won by 7% and reelected by ~4%

It's not just that Democrats need to win big to shut the other side up, they need to win big just to overcome their inherent disadvantage in the electoral college.

With Kamala sitting around 2.2% nationally on average, being within the margin of error of the states she needs to win, and her momentum seemingly stalled for the reasons you listed, Democrats should be worried.

As someone who would vote for her, or just about anyone who is not Donald Trump, I hate this.

Found some better data than just R v. D.

In 2023 Pew has 33% of Republicans identifying as conservative and 25% of Democrats identifying as moderate or conservative, so Americans are somewhere between 33% and 58% conservative. Conversely, Americans are somewhere between 23% and 37% liberal.

I think you've vastly underestimated the number of conservative Americans.