In a fair world, the number of conservative vs liberal judges would be evenly distributed, it's NOT a fair world. So we get 15 Republican judges vs. 5 Democratic ones.
Going by age, the next two justices to be replaced should be Thomas and Alito. Unless that happens under a Democratic President, the people who replace them will be younger and more extreme, locking in the court for the rest of our lives.
Even under a Democratic President, it's still not guaranteed as we saw with Merrick Garland, you need a Democratic Senate as well.
If we're super lucky, we'll get Biden in '24, but his chance of replacing another judge is unlikely. Thomas will be 80 in 2028 and Alito will be 78. So whoever gets elected in '28 will likely get to replace them.
The trend is for the court to get more and more conservative. This is NOT accidental. It's intentional.
https://www.propublica.org/article/we-dont-talk-about-leonard-leo-supreme-court-supermajority
Which gives us:
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/05/1109444617/the-supreme-court-conservative
In a fair world, the number of conservative vs liberal judges would be evenly distributed, it's NOT a fair world. So we get 15 Republican judges vs. 5 Democratic ones.
Going by age, the next two justices to be replaced should be Thomas and Alito. Unless that happens under a Democratic President, the people who replace them will be younger and more extreme, locking in the court for the rest of our lives.
Even under a Democratic President, it's still not guaranteed as we saw with Merrick Garland, you need a Democratic Senate as well.
If we're super lucky, we'll get Biden in '24, but his chance of replacing another judge is unlikely. Thomas will be 80 in 2028 and Alito will be 78. So whoever gets elected in '28 will likely get to replace them.
Harris? Yeah, no. Snowball's chance.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4103153-kamala-harris-is-far-from-the-worst-vice-president-why-do-polls-say-otherwise/
You're still saying the past decides what happens in the future.
No, I'm saying the conservative think tanks that manipulated the past are, right now, as we speak, manipulating the future and it's not changing.
It’s not the past when it keeps happening.