Trump Has Devoured the Republican Establishment
It was almost 15 months ago that The New York Post published a full-page cover photo of Ron DeSantis with the headline “DeFUTURE.” His 19-point victory in the Florida governor’s race was one of the few bright spots of the 2022 elections for a weary Republican elite, which was desperately looking to move on from Donald Trump after his handpicked candidates cost the party key Senate seats.
A year later, as Mr. DeSantis’s presidential campaign stalled, at least a handful of G.O.P. megadonors found new hope in Nikki Haley, with the Koch network announcing millions of dollars in support of her presidential campaign.
It would be fair to say that the project has fallen flat: Mr. DeSantis suspended his presidential campaign on Jan. 21, and Ms. Haley’s hopes have now dwindled to a thin thread after her loss in New Hampshire.
By Donald Trump and his allies, this primary will be portrayed as a victory over a Republican establishment with which he had been at odds for years. But although Mr. Trump has routinely positioned himself as a political outsider, it is clear — now more than ever — that he has become the Republican establishment, and the party’s fate increasingly seems inextricably tied to his.
The former president now controls the Republican Party by virtually every conceivable measure. He has a commanding lead in fund-raising and polling. His policies are a beacon to which most conservative lawmakers orient themselves in affairs both foreign and domestic. His endorsement remains the single most coveted asset that any Republican could hope to brandish in a primary race, and he has already received support from an overwhelming majority of prominent elected Republicans.
I'm a bit more optimistic about the future if Trump loses. To me, the Republicans are in the throes of a cult of personality, and from what I can tell, there is no Trumpism heir apparent. There will be people who try, like DeSantis, but no one has the singular charisma that Trump does.
My prediction is that after 2024, if Trump loses (which is a very big if), 2028 will have a warmed over Trumpist candidate, like DeSantis, who will probably lose. After that, they will have to figure out an actual platform, and around 2030 is when Trumpism will hopefully, finally die.
I feel the problems stem from local support. Maybe DeSantis won't win the presidency 2028, but he can still win being a senator, or governor by continuing to push being Trump-like. I feel this would continue to occur in different states as the local voters appear to want that.
Speaking of that "if," I'm prepared to hope there's a McHeartattack headed his way long before his first 4 years of his lifetime appointment, if it comes to that. But I'm really, really hoping I never have to come to that point.