Bytedance and the CPC both know how unlikely it is that TikTok will be allowed to continue operating in the US. Despite what they're saying, I don't think they actually believe they have any chance at winning that lawsuit.
They tried to stop the law from passing but now that it's been signed they're shifting strategies. They're going to go all in on using TikTok to paint the US as authoritarian and hypocritical. Their primary targets will be young people outside the US.
Looking around the world I expect this will have a lot of traction in developing countries. If you look at wonky foreign policy publication you'll see that the diplomacy nerds have spent the last decade or so worrying about developing nations realigning with China. That will probably accelerate.
They'll probably also have some success with younger Americans. Older American's will probably be unconvinced.
It obviously won't have any affect on China's ability to buy data on US citizens from any number of data brokers. I wouldn't be totally surprised if China has at least some access to data from Five Eyes.
Chinas ability to influence opinion probably won't change much either. We used to call that sort of tactic "information warfare" or "psychological warfare". Sending messages to an opponent, adversary or rival in order to confuse or demoralize them has been going on for millennia. Nations constantly work to develop new methods to do so. Tiktok isn't the first or last of such tools and any large nation has a host of other such options at their disposal.
Great analysis IMO, the US is only one of the countries they're using TikTok to influence.
I'd go even further than that. There's a whole network of tools and organizations that many countries around the world use to influence and spy on each other.
China has a whole portfolio of tools they can use for that stuff.
The US has a whole portfolio of tools they can use for that stuff.
Many of those companies are very comfortable working with both countries, or anyone else who's willing to sign a big enough check.
The control the US government experts over Meta isn't nearly as much as the CCP's control of TikTok.
Maybe. China probably has more official channels to interact with Bytedance but we have hard evidence that the US does the same thing.
FOIA provided a lot of insight into various clandestine interactions between US government agencies and private companies. There are a bunch of NGOs that get almost all of their funding from the US.
We also just reauthorized warrantless wiretapping.
The bigger issue is that Meta doesn't really care. Nobody needs to force them to conform when they can just pay them. As far as Zuckerberg is concerned USD spends just as well as RMB.
More official channels from the authoritarian CCP, seriously?
FOIA requests in the US are a wonderful thing compared to what you're able to do under the CCP's iron grip. I wonder what people could discover of they were transparent enough to allow similar information requests.
Absolutely!
The CPC has board seats on many Chinese companies, including Bytedance.
You can't get more official than that.
The CIA engages in information operations both domestically and abroad. Those activities are often in violation of official US law. So they have to be done covertly and we only find out about it decades later after someone manages to push through a FOIA request.
The fact is that US, Chinese, Soviet (back when that was a thing), British, German, etc are all spying on each other. There's a big spy vs spy thing going on in Africa. The Germans got really grumpy when the US wiretapped their phones a few years ago.
On the surface it may seem like "the authoritarian CCP" is engaging in an extraordinary amount of skullduggery, subterfuge and other clandestine activities but it's just standard operating procedure for any country. Don't take my word for it. There are a bunch of retired US intelligence officers saying exactly the same thing on the record.
Time for some wild conjecture!
Bytedance and the CPC both know how unlikely it is that TikTok will be allowed to continue operating in the US. Despite what they're saying, I don't think they actually believe they have any chance at winning that lawsuit.
They tried to stop the law from passing but now that it's been signed they're shifting strategies. They're going to go all in on using TikTok to paint the US as authoritarian and hypocritical. Their primary targets will be young people outside the US.
Looking around the world I expect this will have a lot of traction in developing countries. If you look at wonky foreign policy publication you'll see that the diplomacy nerds have spent the last decade or so worrying about developing nations realigning with China. That will probably accelerate.
They'll probably also have some success with younger Americans. Older American's will probably be unconvinced.
It obviously won't have any affect on China's ability to buy data on US citizens from any number of data brokers. I wouldn't be totally surprised if China has at least some access to data from Five Eyes.
Chinas ability to influence opinion probably won't change much either. We used to call that sort of tactic "information warfare" or "psychological warfare". Sending messages to an opponent, adversary or rival in order to confuse or demoralize them has been going on for millennia. Nations constantly work to develop new methods to do so. Tiktok isn't the first or last of such tools and any large nation has a host of other such options at their disposal.
Great analysis IMO, the US is only one of the countries they're using TikTok to influence.
I'd go even further than that. There's a whole network of tools and organizations that many countries around the world use to influence and spy on each other.
China has a whole portfolio of tools they can use for that stuff.
The US has a whole portfolio of tools they can use for that stuff.
Many of those companies are very comfortable working with both countries, or anyone else who's willing to sign a big enough check.
The control the US government experts over Meta isn't nearly as much as the CCP's control of TikTok.
Maybe. China probably has more official channels to interact with Bytedance but we have hard evidence that the US does the same thing.
FOIA provided a lot of insight into various clandestine interactions between US government agencies and private companies. There are a bunch of NGOs that get almost all of their funding from the US.
We also just reauthorized warrantless wiretapping.
The bigger issue is that Meta doesn't really care. Nobody needs to force them to conform when they can just pay them. As far as Zuckerberg is concerned USD spends just as well as RMB.
More official channels from the authoritarian CCP, seriously?
FOIA requests in the US are a wonderful thing compared to what you're able to do under the CCP's iron grip. I wonder what people could discover of they were transparent enough to allow similar information requests.
Absolutely!
The CPC has board seats on many Chinese companies, including Bytedance. You can't get more official than that.
The CIA engages in information operations both domestically and abroad. Those activities are often in violation of official US law. So they have to be done covertly and we only find out about it decades later after someone manages to push through a FOIA request.
The fact is that US, Chinese, Soviet (back when that was a thing), British, German, etc are all spying on each other. There's a big spy vs spy thing going on in Africa. The Germans got really grumpy when the US wiretapped their phones a few years ago.
On the surface it may seem like "the authoritarian CCP" is engaging in an extraordinary amount of skullduggery, subterfuge and other clandestine activities but it's just standard operating procedure for any country. Don't take my word for it. There are a bunch of retired US intelligence officers saying exactly the same thing on the record.