Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.

cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 90 points –
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
natesilver.net
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Same models from 2008-2020, at this point in the cycle, it had Hillary winning, and Biden winning, both by a decent margin.

I think it depends what the campaigns do with this information. Coast, or fight harder?

Vote vote vote. (Just once though).