Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.

cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 90 points –
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
natesilver.net
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I am legitimately scared for my safety with the upcoming election. I'm trans and if Trump tries to take my HRT away I will end my life. It would be the final straw so to speak. I will not be forced to live a lie.

2016 was dire, but Nate Silver is often wrong. Polling as it is done today is unreliable at best, and outright lies at worst.

Vote locally, build support networks and hopefully we can weather whatever comes.

could try and get diy hrt from reputable tested vendors. if dark web marketplaces can use the mail to ship real illegal drugs, surely some estradiol will be fine.

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