The Dangerous Illusion of a Presidential Third Party in 2024
thirdway.org
Really you don't need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you're voting for Trump:
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Really you don't need to read more than one chart:
If you vote for anyone other than Harris, you're voting for Trump:
That is just bullshit. While your president is powerful, a lot of the power of government resides within the parliament itself.
As long as US media calls candidates of other parties as "independents" your political system stais a fucked up mono party system.
To change the Satus quo, laws must put in place, like in other countries that force media to represent all parties.
In addition you have to stop with this excessive money dependent political campaigns.
Those are gatekeeping tactics designed to keep the power in the hands of the two major parties.
There is no reason why your system could not work with more competitors.
edit: also, using a voting mechanism that was good in times before telegraph, telephone and internet makes it nearly impossible for smaller parties to get anything out of an election.
There is no reason not to use the popular vote. None!
The Electoral College system blocks using the popular vote. Changing that means changing the Constitution.
And that is an issue how? Are you trying to say that the USA will be stuck with a legal framework from the 1800? For all eternity?
EDIT I like that. Downvoting is fine, but maybe explain why? Srsly I am very invested in politics, doesn't matter if European or US. So, if I am wrong on a factual basis, tell me.
Pretty much. There is a process to change the Constitution, here's how it works:
First you get a 290 vote super majority in the House. These are the people who took 15 tries to get a simple 218 vote majority to decide who their own leader would be.
Then you need a 67 vote super majority in the Senate, the people continually blocked by needing 60 votes to overturn a filibuster.
If somehow you meet those two hurdles, then it goes to the states for ratification and you need 38 statehouses to pass the Amendment.
By point of comparison, in 2020, Biden got 25 states + Washington D.C. so you'd need ALL 25 Biden states +13 Trump states.
BUT - Of those 25 states, only 19 have Democratically controlled statehouses, so you could end up needing as many as 19 Trump states.
Thanks. That was my rough assumption. And that worries me. While I am not a US citizen, the USA have such immense power that yout politics affect people around the world. From privacy and data protection to the simple fact if we leave in peace or in war.
I understand it is a big issue. And I hope you find a way to change that.
I like the color blue.
I can understand that
There are lots of competitors in US elections, but most are eliminated during the primaries.
When you have more than two candidates in the final round, the winner may not represent the will of the people. You can end up with a majority preferring A to B, a majority preferring B to C, and a majority preferring C to A. No matter who wins, the majority can identify a preferable candidate.
In fact, Kenneth Arrow mathematically proved that multiparty elections will always produce paradoxical results like that. That's why the winners of multiparty elections are often decided by elite kingmakers, eg Macron.
I see the issue with a president. But most legislation comes out of the Senate. Having more then two parties represented there forces compromises. And the wishes of more people have to be considered the get the required majority.
And if the congress is more diverse, the president looses some powers, as he can not rely on having the majority at least for two years of his presidency. He also would have to compromise all the time.
Just admit it, your system is broken.
First of all, in a presidential democracy the president keeps their powers regardless of the composition of Congress (not just the Senate).
It's true that in order to pass legislation, the President has to cooperate with Congress. But I'm not sure why you think that a more diverse Congress would "force" anyone to compromise. What actually happens is that nothing gets done.
In fact, this is why the purest multiparty democracies, like Italy and Israel, constantly fail. Multiple parties are "forced" to compromise. They can't or won't, blaming their opponents. The government is paralyzed and falls. New elections are held. The composition of the legislature changes (or not). Multiple parties are "forced" to compromise. They can't or won't, blaming their opponents. The government is paralyzed and falls. New elections are held. Repeat ad infinitum.
I am living in a multi party country. I am experiencing the hurdles and the benefits of it every single day. Coalitions have to be formed to get the majority, smaller parties getting influence because of it.
We are getting stuff like increased minimum wage, social benefits, legalizing cannabis, and more. And not because the senior partner in the coalition wants it. Because of the junior partners. They are required to form a majority, so they can state their terms also.
And yes, some countries with more then two parties in the parliament are failing. What about the US?
Got some universal Healthcare yet? A livable minimum wage for everyone including waiters?
Effective countermeasures to climate change?
No? See, also failing. And that lies in the nature of countries. Sometimes they fail.
You assume that US democracy is failing because it hasn't delivered progressive goals. But the reason it hasn't delivered progressive goals is that it's a democracy, about half the country is not progressive, and there is no national consensus on those goals.
It's true that in multi-party democracies, it is easier for a progressive minority to make its voice heard and achieve its goals. But it's also easier for a right-wing minority to make its voice heard and achieve its goals. For example, in both Italy and Israel.
In the US the fucking right wing has 50% in the polls. What are you talking about?
~50% of the people ate voting for a lying, narcissistic Nazi. One of your supreme courts justices took "presents " from someone who has a hitler singed version of "Mein Kampf" in his possession. Right besides ohter Nazi memorabilia.
And your concern is, that it would be easier for a right wing minority to gain power? You have a right wing majority.
We ate shoked over here in Germany that our far right has more then 20% in election results. Your far right has 50% and one of your presidential candidates represents them.
We had a right wing government under Trump, yet somehow Trump didn't achieve most of his goals.
He couldn't repeal progressive health care legislation. He couldn't leave NATO. He never built that stupid wall on the Mexican border.
He did manage to enact tariffs against China. But only because Democrats supported them too.
Finally, he got a tax cut for the rich without support from Democrats. That's his main legacy.
And that's the difference between your country and mine. In yours, a junior party can achieve its goals. That's great when you agree with those goals. Not so great when you don't agree with them, like in Israel right now.
In the US, often even a majority is not enough to get what you want. It means progress is very slow, but we've avoided several potential catastrophes.
He got abortion rights overthrown, handled the pandemic so badly, that the rest of the world laughed at the US, and got himself and his family richer by talking money and presents from foreign powers.
Your argument boils down to: in the US political system it is hard to change anything and therefore we are protected from "worse"? Does this argument still stand with the supreme court ruling about presidential immunity and trumps statements about dictator on day one or "you never have to vote again"? Project 25?
So, in my country we are moving towards a livable feature for citizens, in your country you are stuck with a system that only benefits the wealthy. And every approach that could change that will be undermjnedby right wing lunatics and their donors.
He didn't get abortion rights overthrown single-handedly. Anti-abortion activists have been working on that for decades, starting with the appointment of Clarence Thomas in 1991. Trump was simply responsible for the final step.
Progress is slow. But in a democracy, your opponents will inevitably have some victories. Fortunately those are slow too.
If your country is making progress towards a better future, then you should thank your fellow voters not your election system. Because a different group of voters could use the same election system to make things much worse, and in fact they have done so elsewhere. What have people like Trump achieved when they won elections in your country?
Anyway, the US is stuck with American voters. So I'm glad our election system enforces patience.
I take that ;)
But srsly, it is not voters or voting system. It is both.
Imagine there would be a MAGA party with equal chances like the Reps, how would that change the policies of those parties? And would this influence the voters behavior? That is not a rethoric question, it is a thought play. I, as an outsider, would assume that the extreme right wingers would unite under the MAGA flag and their policies would adapt accordingly while the Republicans would go back to their kind of normal.
There are already factions of "normal" Republicans and "MAGA" Republicans under the Republican banner. Their disagreements are internal but occasionally visible. They were on full display earlier this year, when they couldn't decide who would lead the House.
Another example: this week the Republican speaker advanced a MAGA friendly position on the budget and then immediately withdrew it, presumably due to internal pressure from the "normal" faction.
Exactly. And there comes in the issue: if you want to vote conservative you have to take the far right bullshit. There is no in between. There is no "conservative without that nazi bullshit". So, if they could separate bit still have some power in the sense of seats in the parliaments, would that impact the political landscape?
K