Is there any evidence that Reddit has suffered at all from the exodus to Lemmy?
Was there even a mass exodus? I largely avoid Reddit now, but I do kind of doubt that they've been hurt in any meaningful way by all the protests and people leaving...
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I think you are 100% right. This is a slow burn not something that will happen overnight.
And on top of that, it's good that it takes time. The fediverse is still maturing. The slow changeover gives the new people time to contribute and make the place beter, and build capability for when serious numbers start to migrate.
People can contribute ideas, feedback, code, money for server costs and obviously content so when there is a bigger exodus there's something here for new people to absorb.
This seems to me similar to what building dual power looks like, it's just this is the digital version. A single cataclysmic moment of rupture isn't a good thing unless there are structures in place strong enough to pick up the pieces.