I just heard her speak for the first time today.

Better than Joe, but I don't think she's Obama tier. That man was king of the mic.

It's probably a trap...but beating him there would be a huge huge fucking deal. Trump took the last debate on Biden teams terms and despite that Biden still cocked it up and that made the burn worse(had that debate been on Fox the age issues would have been blamed on their audio mixing and editing and the room being too hot and crap). If Trump loses on his own turf on his rules with his followers watching?

Before anyone starts getting a bit too high off their own supply Harris's polling averages peaked on August 12th. They were stagnant or declining on the 13th and 14th, briefly spiked on the 15th, and that spike was completely undone on the 16th. Today is dropping again. Not big drops, like 1/10th of a point every other day(which day depends on which conglomerates you use), but the growth trend is over.

One thing worth noting about how much the devil is in the details.

Arizona and Nevada are still leaning pretty solidly R at the moment.(Trump's hispanic margins have steadily gone up since 2016, dropping the wall focus helped a lot). Wisconsin and Michigan are the closest to going D albeit Trump still leans ahead. PA is in the middle and is the most important of the set. (North Carolina is the strongest R of all 7, and Georgia is the Libertarian Ex-Democrat Chase Olivers homestate which combined with Cornell West's strong focus there and the election commission shenanigans means those two are out of play barring some good luck and Roy Cooper being picked. Trump would have won Georgia in 2020 with no third party vote and those have leaned left since. I don't consider them swing states unless Andy or Roy are on board).

In the Rust Belt Focus scenario(They pick Shapiro or Walz and make Pennsylvania the biggest focus as it's the most important state, and manage to finish ahead in all 3, at the cost of Arizona, Nevada, and the Southern States), the final score is 268-270. A win, but a damn tight one.

Except...Nebraska. Nebraska is putting a law up in September to change the way their state distributes to be Winner Take All. If it goes through it would be passed in October, taking away one D vote from Omaha and giving it to R. (Maine has threatened to do the same if Nebraska does, but they wouldn't have it done til after the election if they did, not enough time). That would change the above scenario to a 269-269 decided by the current House...which is Trump run and even if it wasn't it's state by state and more than 26 states are safe red even in a blue wave scenario. Though it would leave the VP pick to the Senate, which is democrat right now, and while it couldn't be Harris due to her current spot anyone else would be came. So there'd be a very real chance of a Trump/Shapiro ticket which would be a dysfunctional nightmare and would have a massive chance of one of the two getting murdered.(I can't find a source if it's the current senate or the newly elected one as they get inaugurated seperately from the president, but if the senate falls which looks likely the Republicans can pick the VP, and while the House is leaning democrat due to it being state by state it would be R regardless).

This ALSO happens in the reverse scenario, where the Dems focus on the Southwestern States with Mark Kelly(taking Arizona and Nevada) AND manage to put on enough pressure to take Wisconsin and Michigan(which are the closest and Kelly while he isn't a winning deal there is still better than nothing), but are unable to win Pennsylvania(which is a lot more red leaning and without Shapiro or Walz is probably going red). 270 - 268 win for Democrats...unless Nebraska changes the law in which case it's a tie, House picks, see above.

The specific configuration of which states go where makes a tie super likely this year especially if Nebraska switches their rules(which isn't unconstitutional, they picked a weird unique system and they can unpick it, the other system is used by 48 states that's all above board. The scummy part is the timing as it would leave Maine without time to change their own system before the election and thus secure an extra R vote without an extra D vote from changing Maine). There are also tie scenarios in the event Nebraska doesn't change, namely the "Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia go blue, everything else goes Red" possibility if someone like Beshear or Cooper is picked ends in a 269-269 tie, as does a couple of scenarios where Maine-State swings Red(which it has come extremely close to more than once), turning narrow Blue wins into ties. And if those scenarios happened alongisde a Nebraska change they'd suddenly be 270-268 clean wins.

Canadian, not my fight. Our liberals ain't doing so good

Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we’ll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)

On the plus side, that’ll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn’t time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.

This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it’s 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that’s it.

If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can’t be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn’t there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine’s statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn’t worth it.

I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden’s home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it’s true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.

My call? If they don’t pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it’s over 100%, and even with it’s iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it’s also the single most crucial state in this election?

Just FYI so you don't get 'gotchaed', Trump isn't the oldest nominee ever. Neither was Biden. Record is still held by Peter Cooper from the reconstruction era who was 84 when nominated.

Decided to check since people said Trump was scrambling for endorsements. No former president or former vice president alive supports him. Most of the failed candidates for both don't either(Romney, Ryan). Sarah Palin is the only VP Candidate willing to back him.

Assuming the new candidate(probably Harris) avoid any major disasters as does Trump, we'll be returning to the May 2024 status quo of things. Harris is more popular than post-debate Biden, was slightly behind pre-debate Biden, and will probably need a month to get back there(winning the nomination and undoing all the damage from 4 weeks of infighting.)

On the plus side, that'll drop the hemorrhaging, New Mexico and New Jersey safe, Virginia and Minnesota probably safe. On the downside at this point Georgia and North Carolina are lost, there just isn't time and the Republicans spent 4 years pouring resources into them.

This is back to the main 5. Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The important factor is that if they lose Pennsylvania, they lose. They can win the other 4 here, but it's 268-270. Unless they snag something extra like Georgia(unlikely in this scenario), that's it.

If they win Pennsylvania, they need at least two others in ideal circumstances(Michigan needs to be one of the two and Nevada can't be one of the two, second one would have to be Wisconsin or Arizona), 3 others in unideal circumstances if Michigan isn't there and they get Nevada. I should also note several of these scenarios are razor thin (270-268 with Pensylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and 271-267 with Arizona instead) and thus vulnerable to faithless electors. Or worse, if Maine's statewide went red(which is more likely than Georgia going blue or Virginia going red at this point) the former would be a win and the latter would be a tie. In the tie scenario the House picks the president(so Trump) and the Senate picks the Vice President(so Vance would be ousted) which would be an absolute nightmare and gambling on Trump dying in that situation isn't worth it.

I note this because even in the base line May scenario Pennsylvania was one of the worse polling one for democrats(Arizona and Wisconsin were the blue edging ones), and Pennsylvania is not a state where the stars are aligning. It was Biden's home state, Scranton boy, him being off the ticket hurts things there probably more than they help. AND, while it's true nationwide the post-shooting bump for Trump was relatively minor, Pennsylvania is where the shooting happened and has gotten the largest bump in the polls since, 3 or 4 points. Biden leaving demotivates the base there harder than anywhere else in the county and the Trump shooting re-motivated the base there harder than most.

My call? If they don't pick Shapiro or Whitmer, it's over 100%, and even with it's iffy. Pennsylvania is perhaps the one state where any replacement is going to do worse than Biden even post-debate, and the one state the Trump shooting caused a notable bump. What are the odds it's also the single most crucial state in this election?

Ehhhh. Where does CPR lean? The fact that Nevada is 3 points red and North Carolina is more blue than Georgia is...odd. Right leaning polls tend to show Nevada as really close, centrist polls too, I get it has a small sample size, but that's odd. Also NC turning while Georgia holds is weird, the trends are similar in both states, but Georgia was blue-er last time.

In terms of the averages Georgia is still red, and this solidifies Nevada. NC has too many other red polls for this to change that. Does push Arizona into dead even or lean blue average and Pennsylvania solidly into lean blue.

Also the Ohio thing makes sense when you look at the Senate map. There are exactly two remotely competitive races, Montana and Ohio. Ohio is leaning blue and Montana is leaning red. Picking JD boosts Ohio and Trump is campaigning in Montana right now. Those choices were both made when Biden was still in so seemingly the idea was to secure the Senate and grab an extra seat or two so it's not razor tight and vulnerable to RINOs.

What caused the gigantic spike in the betting odds for Beshear? The website FINALLY added Tim Walz(he got on the radar of the media like, the day after the website started tracking, so until this morning he was just lumped in OTHER which caused the funny situation of OTHER being the third biggest option). I also know why Roy Cooper tanked since he said he was out. But it looked like the Top 4 was solidly Shapiro and Kelly in the Top 2 and then Walz in a strong third(OTHER until recently) and then Beshear fighting Mayor Pete for 4th and 5th.

The last thing anybody wants is Trump pulling it out and calling all the headlines lies. Surprised Biden never did actually

Off topic, but looking for an active thread.

How long do you think counting will take this year?

Out of the 11 elections in the current (6th) party system, 7 of them were called before midnight on election day. (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, and just barely 2012 although that only just barely got called before midnight). Out of the other 4: 2016 was called about 2 hours after midnight and 2004 was called about 10 hours after midnight(so both the next morning). 2020 took about 3 days to call, albeit there was no concession here so the exact end-time isn't clear. 2000 took over a month infamously.

He wasn't dead in 2016. None of them were

If I recall correctly Gore (probably) won with a full state wide recount, but in the counties he asked for he ironically (probably) would have ended up losing. I say probably because both of these are tight enough to be within the margin of error. Or fix the butterfly ballot issue. Of course Gore also only won New Mexico by a 366 votes so who knows what that would have ended up with if either side actually cared(not enough EC to matter if they lost Florida, but still dead close and recounts probably favored Bush).

That doesn't really answer the final question though. Is it going to be called Election Day like 7 of the 11? The day after(or really the morning after) like 2004 or 2016? Is it going to last days like 2020? Or weeks like in 2000?

Also that second to last point isn't 100%, but there's a lot of rumor and evidence to suggest the plan at the end of Clinton's term was to bring in Gore, and then either when he lost or ran out his terms JFK Jr. was to be the next guy in line. Him dying and Al Gore losing put them in a tough spot in 2004.

If an exact average between 2016 and 2020 were to happen the final score would be 272-268 narrow Republican victory. Though both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are razor thin on average leaning less than 1/4 a percent either way. Nothing shown here had an average trend of above 10% margins(Nothing 60-40 or greater).

I also note the states considered 'swing states' are the 5 FULL states in the middle, plus the closest one on each side. That wasn't intentional on my part, it's sorted by margins, but that's evidence enough to me it's not completely broken.

New Hampshire and Minnesota are the weakest 'solid blue' states while Florida and Texas are the weakest 'solid red' states(Albeit due to raw numbers the latter are stronger). I also note the 4 'Old' Swing states used from 2000-2016 to predict elections (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia) are all still here and are still closer than average. Ohio and Florida especially, though Iowa and Virginia are both trending a bit more left and right than average recently.

Off-scale the next tightest Blue States are Oregon and New Jersey, the next tightest Red States are South Carolina and Alaska. Again, doesn't account for trends (Alaska is probably blue-er than South Carolina without the green party, and New Jersey is absolutely redder than Oregon atm)

(also wild beard on that guy

I'm going off the week 1 polls. She was weaker than everyone else when adjusted for name recognition and was the only one within the margins of Biden. I also don't disagree on the base point, but there's 3 months, the war machine needs time to spool up and the Republicans have had a 2 week headstart. It's gonna be tight and Pensyllvania is not going well

Yeah this was in the era of the Know Nothings so that's good

Fair enough, but still, saying Trump is the oldest nominee ever, period, is wrong. He's Number 2(albeit he'd have to last his whole term to beat Biden, similar to his prior age thing with Reagan in 2016) behind Cooper.

None older that Cooper who got on state ballots no

I'm just pointing out that the base line statement is wrong. If you wanna say 'Oldest Republican Nominee Ever" there is literally zero wiggle room on that, unblockable. Otherwise they can either say Biden is older right now and still fit to serve(or bring up that he was Trump's age back in 2022 and they said he was fine), OR just pull up Cooper. Also I happen to like Peter Cooper. Look at the beard on that lad. That's the one fact he has going for him and if people forget that he'll be gone faster than JFK being known for being a catholic.

It's actually really debatable which side RFK is drawing more from, it's gone back and forth. Same with the Libertarians this year, there's been an internal shakeup and Chase Oliver is a democrat, but most of the base leans right, but not all of them especially the quieter ones.

The Constitution Party is still firm right and the Greens and PSL are still firm left, albeit even then outside of the PSL there's *'s on that(The Greens are pro-Russia and the Constitution Party guy was a democrat for one year after a decade as a Republican).

Problem is that weakens the dems, see Ralph Nader

That really only effects the question if Georgia is the last state to matter which is highly unlikely in most scenarios (If it goes Blue it's a 2020 repeat and if it goes Red there's tight races elsewhere to focus on like Arizona and Pennsylvania). Not the question.

That's literally what I said, hence I feel like this poll was off-there. Might have been too red in Nevada tho.
If Georgia is a toss up North Carolina is lean red. Nevada probably isn't that red though

Today is an all time high on slightly right leaning RCP, and a slight rebound on 538(But not to 12th/13th/15th levels). More like 16th or 11th evening. RCP tends to lag a bit on D rises and vice versa for 538 so we'll see. Still suggests the overall strong growth trend passed and we're nearing a ceiling. Not a bad ceiling, a winning ceiling, but it's there.

Still got the 5th most votes of any presidential candidate ever. (1st is Biden 2020 and 2nd is Trump 2020, 3rd is 08 Obama, 4th is 2012 Obama)

I will note the idea Harris was picked at the 2020 primaries is bunk, people don't vote on a President/VP ticket then(though that would be an interesting system). Harris was picked by Biden, and while she was on the 2020 ticket in the national election it's impossible to say how many people she swayed.

I don't think she's perfect, but unlike Hillary at least Harris was picked by circumstance, even if unfortunate circumstance, not appointed years in advance like Hillary was. (Hillary had been intending to go for it after she gained some political experience and Bill's scandal faded. Al Gore was supposed to carry the democrats, but that didn't work out, and JFK Jr who was being courted for a 2004 run died in a plane crash in 1999, so they had to work with John Kerry which didn't go well. Then Hillary was ready and initially had party favor, but Obama came in like a locomotive without brakes: All the DNC's horses and all the RNCs men couldn't stop Obama in 08, no my friend)

The definition of major party was fuzzy back in the civil war reconstruction era

If you assume he's legit(which maybe? I've heard rumors the leaks about him working with Trump were fake because the Republicans are panicking and fear he'll siphon votes, some people blame the Dems, some people say it's true, honestly all 3 are possible at this point though I lean to the first one) getting the Libertarians and whatever is left of the Reform Party with him is probably the best possible call for RFK.

There's been a bit of a Libertarian revolt internally, the Colorado branch defected to Kennedy and the party's been a bit directionless since Chase Oliver turned the party leftward and broke with the old Gary Johnson clique. And the Reform Party died when they lost Nader in 2005, they haven't been relevant in years. There's also a couple small state level parties joining RFK's coalition who used to work with the Constitution Party so who knows what they'll do. Every third party who isn't the Green Party or PSL has some degree of interest in RFK Jr

I've heard there's (alledgly) pressure from the progressive wing to avoid this because they want to win the Popular Vote regardless of outcome. Losing both makes them look weak. Or worse(to them), if they won the Electoral College and lost the Popular Vote. Some feel it would massively decrease support for the popular vote as a lot of people may only be supporting it when it backs there team(I will note support for reform is far higher among democrats, make of that what you will)

(Don't know why the link isn't in OP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tMgHGeEGzg)

Again, for the record, Peter Cooper is the record holder for oldest Nominee. Trump is second and Biden is third(albeit Biden is still older by the Reagan metric of end of office if Trump ends up losing or dies midway through). If you wanna say oldest REPUBLICAN ever go for it, that's a far safer claim that's not made incorrect thanks to Peter Cooper or vulnerable to debating the exact definition like Biden is(like he was A Nominee in the primaries, he just didn't become THE Nominee). Also making this argument makes the 'Biden should resign' thing worse so, maybe hold off on that. There's plenty of legitimate anti-Trump arguments that can be expressed as simple factual statements. Trump is rapist. No need to get into the age shit

Mostly true. You could argue if Major Primary Contenders should be counted(Top 3 would be unchanged) and Biden is still the older President, Trump would have to win and make it to his 4th and final year to beat that. Reagan issue, people debated the definition back in 2016 too.

Just maybe hold off then, if Biden fucking croaks or something it'll make the Democrats look worse for not taking their guy's age seriously. Make sure he's fine and not COVIDous for a few days

Like if you support third parties in general aiming for the center(which RFK is given that both sides have accused him of being a spoiler) is the best bet, and getting the other 3rd parties in line helps. Interested to see if he can break the 5 percent funding margin to get on debates and get national funding. 2000 was the last election that was at play for anyone.