I mean, I played competitive LCG before. I completely understand that it’s possible. I have definitely taken and lost on a 60% chance. It’s just not a risk I would take.
And I maintain that he was wrong. I don’t think it was a 70% chance. By the time I got back from voting, he had revised it closer to 55-60%. That seems more accurate to me. I think he underestimated Trump.
I happen to live in a Republican controlled district in one of the swing states. The people who are enthusiastic about Trump are extremely enthusiastic. As in, flying Trump-Vance flags in their truck down a major thoroughfare.
And, the Muslim population here may very well not be bluffing and vote for Trump instead of Harris - or simply not vote at all. The Israel-Gaza issue is HUGE here.
Unless our major city pulls through for us, Trump will win our state.
The odds are also stacked against Harris based on how electoral votes are counted. If you ask me who I think will win the popular vote, I think Harris will win. It’s just that the game is so stacked, and Republican controlled regions are, well, making it hard to vote.
Did I mention SCOTUS is not impartial?