Like, what is your version of what’s happening that polls aren’t reliable now?
Didn't they explain?
In this case it’s clearly biased against people who don’t answer random numbers. The “not answering” cohort may be correlated with other population groups like people with higher education and higher earnings. The survey may be systematically missing this chunk of the population, making the results biased too.
Higher educated democrats not surveyed -> the survey misses their opinions -> the survey is wrong when the results come in at election time.
I admit I’m a bit surprised that we’re having a debate over whether or not selection bias is a thing (it most certainly is).
And it always has been....
Yet every election going back decades was within the margin of error of polls.
Statistics are not new. They've been around for a very very long time.
I admit, I only took one graduate level statistical analysis course, so maybe you've got more experience.
But it really sounds like a bunch of people who don't know anything about science complaining about science because they don't like the results....
Do you know who else does that?
But that's always been the case...
And polls are normally right
People think they're bad now, because Hillary and the media said if she was projected by less then the margin of error, then she won those states and we can count on them.
Which is stupid, and was only done because they thought she was more popular and resulted in just enough people staying home that trump won....
How does that mean now when the polls are even worse, that we should ignore the polls and carry on with false confidence?
It doesn't make any any logical sense.
People think they’re bad now, because Hillary and the media said
No, this particular user thinks polls are bod because younger voters, who are more likely to vote for Democrats, are not going to pick up calls from random numbers. They were very clear. Why are you inventing arguments that were never mentioned in the discussion?
No, this particular user thinks polls are bod because younger voters, who are more likely to vote for Democrats, are not going to pick up calls from random numbers
When was that not true?
Edit:
Agreeing to that was literally the first thing I said mate...
But that’s always been the case…
I'm not "inventing" arguments, you're just ignoring explanations.
That's probably why this doesn't make sense to you
I’m not “inventing” arguments, you’re just ignoring explanations.
I didn't ask you for any explanations. Don't take too much responsibility on yourself and play the lecturer. You failed to understand what they were trying to say, I tried to help. That's it. I'm not here for your explanations, you have neither expertise nor credibility to teach others.
You failed to understand what they were trying to say, I tried to help. That’s it
No, I understood and typed a long reply going into depth how polls are the same they've always been, and they've been in margin of error of results for modern political history.
You missed the literal first sentence, apparently didn't understand the test, and now are taking it personally.
You missed something, it's not a big deal. But if you get upset at people correcting you, you'll never learn anything.
Have a nice life, I won't be spending anymore time on you.
Have a nice life, I won’t be spending anymore time on you.
Didn't they explain?
I admit I’m a bit surprised that we’re having a debate over whether or not selection bias is a thing (it most certainly is).
And it always has been....
Yet every election going back decades was within the margin of error of polls.
Statistics are not new. They've been around for a very very long time.
I admit, I only took one graduate level statistical analysis course, so maybe you've got more experience.
But it really sounds like a bunch of people who don't know anything about science complaining about science because they don't like the results....
Do you know who else does that?
But that's always been the case...
And polls are normally right
People think they're bad now, because Hillary and the media said if she was projected by less then the margin of error, then she won those states and we can count on them.
Which is stupid, and was only done because they thought she was more popular and resulted in just enough people staying home that trump won....
How does that mean now when the polls are even worse, that we should ignore the polls and carry on with false confidence?
It doesn't make any any logical sense.
No, this particular user thinks polls are bod because younger voters, who are more likely to vote for Democrats, are not going to pick up calls from random numbers. They were very clear. Why are you inventing arguments that were never mentioned in the discussion?
When was that not true?
Edit:
Agreeing to that was literally the first thing I said mate...
I'm not "inventing" arguments, you're just ignoring explanations.
That's probably why this doesn't make sense to you
I didn't ask you for any explanations. Don't take too much responsibility on yourself and play the lecturer. You failed to understand what they were trying to say, I tried to help. That's it. I'm not here for your explanations, you have neither expertise nor credibility to teach others.
No, I understood and typed a long reply going into depth how polls are the same they've always been, and they've been in margin of error of results for modern political history.
You missed the literal first sentence, apparently didn't understand the test, and now are taking it personally.
You missed something, it's not a big deal. But if you get upset at people correcting you, you'll never learn anything.
Have a nice life, I won't be spending anymore time on you.
Thank you.