Politically should he drop out? Honestly, not sure. I genuinely believe that him being found guilty will not negatively affect his supporters. Somehow I reckon it might even get him more if he can spin it right - talk about it being some sort of conspiracy directly from Biden to suppress right wing voters or some shit. He's such an effective figurehead that I don't think other republican candidates could compete with his pull.
him being found guilty will not negatively affect his supporters
Yes, but they were going to vote for him anyways. Trump needs to win more moderates/alt leftists. His betting odds (which are generally much more reliable than polls) dropped 3% after his verdict landed: https://electionbettingodds.com/
I mean it makes sense. There are bets for everything. But the political betting odds website SENT me. Do you have anything to back up that they are more reliable than polls? I'm genuinely curious.
Betting odds tend to be the best prediction method for 2 reasons; the first is there is no other good prediction method, and the second is that people who spend time doing analysis will bet on one side if that side's odds are better than the market is giving it credit for. As an example, my stats professor in 2016 bet 1000$ on Trump, not because he wanted Trump to win, but because he saw the betting market was only giving Trump like 30% odds, whereas my prof estimated it was closer to 35 (or something). For the record, the polls had Trump at like 2% during this time.
Haha that's so interesting that your stats prof can make some extra dollars on the side through analysis. That's a huge discrepancy between the betting odds and the polls
Morally should he drop out? Yes
Politically should he drop out? Honestly, not sure. I genuinely believe that him being found guilty will not negatively affect his supporters. Somehow I reckon it might even get him more if he can spin it right - talk about it being some sort of conspiracy directly from Biden to suppress right wing voters or some shit. He's such an effective figurehead that I don't think other republican candidates could compete with his pull.
Yes, but they were going to vote for him anyways. Trump needs to win more moderates/alt leftists. His betting odds (which are generally much more reliable than polls) dropped 3% after his verdict landed: https://electionbettingodds.com/
I mean it makes sense. There are bets for everything. But the political betting odds website SENT me. Do you have anything to back up that they are more reliable than polls? I'm genuinely curious.
Betting odds tend to be the best prediction method for 2 reasons; the first is there is no other good prediction method, and the second is that people who spend time doing analysis will bet on one side if that side's odds are better than the market is giving it credit for. As an example, my stats professor in 2016 bet 1000$ on Trump, not because he wanted Trump to win, but because he saw the betting market was only giving Trump like 30% odds, whereas my prof estimated it was closer to 35 (or something). For the record, the polls had Trump at like 2% during this time.
Haha that's so interesting that your stats prof can make some extra dollars on the side through analysis. That's a huge discrepancy between the betting odds and the polls