The respectable probability estimates range from astronomically unlikely to merely unlikely. In other words, we don't have incontrovertible ways of calculating the probability.
While it's not great or convincing evidence, it's the only physical evidence I know about.
We might not be able to calculate the probability but we can conclude that the chances that this tomb is that of Jesus is infinitesimal.
If you can't calculate the probability, then you can't rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.
Of course you can.
I'm unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.
You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn't fall out of sky).
You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.
They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren't true, there'd be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.
If you're happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).
That's way too low since several of the names match.
Enough. Feel free to continue believing that, on the balance of probabilities, this tomb is that of the really real Jesus.
The respectable probability estimates range from astronomically unlikely to merely unlikely. In other words, we don't have incontrovertible ways of calculating the probability.
While it's not great or convincing evidence, it's the only physical evidence I know about.
We might not be able to calculate the probability but we can conclude that the chances that this tomb is that of Jesus is infinitesimal.
If you can't calculate the probability, then you can't rationally reach the conclusion that the probability is very low.
Of course you can.
I'm unable to calculate the probability that the moon will fall out of the sky tonight but I know that the probability is very low.
You can make the simple inductive calculation that the probability is 1 / (total number of nights moon didn't fall out of sky).
You can also look at the total energy needed to de-orbit the moon and come up with a frequencie for events at least of that magnitude.
They are easy calculations and they both give infinitesimal results. If that weren't true, there'd be no way to tell if your intuition were correct.
If you're happy with this type of calculation then the probability that this tomb is that of biblical Jesus is (number of occupants) / (number of humans in that area at the time the tomb was built).
That's way too low since several of the names match.
Enough. Feel free to continue believing that, on the balance of probabilities, this tomb is that of the really real Jesus.