Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn't be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia's interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let's hope that it's all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
Yeah that's a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you're right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
They can't even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you're right on this one, I don't hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It's a curse that we live in such interesting times.
Ukraine isn't an internationally recognized part of Russia for which all nations agree is and always was part of Russia...
If Taiwan is Donbas, China is Ukraine.
Donbas voted to secede and Ukraine said no so Russia invaded.
If Taiwan tries to secede and China says no... hopefully the US doesn't pull a Russia.
You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
Yes, I believe that. Because it's true.
What specifically did I say that isn't an objectively true fact and is hard for you to accept someone believing?
Does the international community not recognize Taiwan as a part of China?
Was Ukraine an internationally* recognized part of Russia?
Did Donbas not vote to secede from Ukraine prior to the invasion?
Did Ukraine not say no, then Russia use that as an excuse for their "special operations"?
Edit* internationally autocorrected to intentionally.
All nations agree that Taiwan is and always was part of China?
Yes.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan's government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you'd think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here's the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don't know what they're talking about.
And not a single government, not even Peru's government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.
Strangely, that's not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of "strategic ambiguity" where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.
Yeah, it's not actually very ambiguous. It's more confusing than ambiguous.
If you ask if the government in Taipei is the legitimate government of China, the USA will say no.
If you ask if Taiwan is an independent country, the USA will say no.
But if you ask if Taiwan is part of China, the USA will avoid answering, even though that's the only option left.
Wouldn't the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there's continuity from the former china government to Taiwan's, the people's republic is the newest entity.
No. The ROC has no more of a claim to be Chinas rightful ruler than the PRC does, except the PRC won the mainland.
Sure the KMT led by Sun Yat-sen overthrew the Monarchy, through revolution under a united nationalist front and formed the ROC.
But you can't ignore the decades after, during which a civil war and literally WW2 happened (which stopped the civil war).
During this time the KMT turned radically to the right under the leadership of Chiang Kai-Shek which led to a massive rift within China.
The CPC grew massively during the war and many of the left wing of the KMT sided with them.
The CPC carried out their own revolution against the current KMT and took control of the entire mainland while the KMT held only Taiwan (and carried out a little ethnic cleansing see: white terror).
The CPC then formed the official government of the PRC and was internationally recognized as the ruler of China, while the ROC continued to hold it's islands and claim rightful ruler over the mainland launching multiple attacks, by this time it was over, even the United States who had strongly supported the KMT over the CPC had no choice but to declare the PRC the rightful ruler of China.
So the KMT has a claim to rule all of China in the same sense that a Qing descendant would. They uses to rule sure, but they lost the revolution and their still existing doesn't grant them any power or recognition.
I'm not talking about who's 'rightful ruler' or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That's the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions.
Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don't know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular.
Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People's Republic aren't a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn't be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia's interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let's hope that it's all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn't until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There's none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There's a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain "hellfire from drones" tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn't doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese "third navy" I'd understand the rhetoric but it isn't.
Yeah that's a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you're right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
He's facing internal struggles of looking weak to the military. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-loyal-communist-party-purges-xi-jinping-speech-2024-7?op=1
I mean fuck they just got a command structure. Until the 2000s the generals instructed the soldiers and the soldiers taught the generals.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2018/11/chinas-military-has-no-combat-experience-does-it-matter.html
They can't even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you're right on this one, I don't hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It's a curse that we live in such interesting times.
Ukraine isn't an internationally recognized part of Russia for which all nations agree is and always was part of Russia...
If Taiwan is Donbas, China is Ukraine.
Donbas voted to secede and Ukraine said no so Russia invaded.
If Taiwan tries to secede and China says no... hopefully the US doesn't pull a Russia.
You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
Yes, I believe that. Because it's true.
What specifically did I say that isn't an objectively true fact and is hard for you to accept someone believing?
Does the international community not recognize Taiwan as a part of China?
Was Ukraine an internationally* recognized part of Russia?
Did Donbas not vote to secede from Ukraine prior to the invasion?
Did Ukraine not say no, then Russia use that as an excuse for their "special operations"?
Edit* internationally autocorrected to intentionally.
All nations agree that Taiwan is and always was part of China?
Yes.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan's government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you'd think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here's the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don't know what they're talking about.
And not a single government, not even Peru's government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.
Strangely, that's not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of "strategic ambiguity" where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.
Yeah, it's not actually very ambiguous. It's more confusing than ambiguous.
If you ask if the government in Taipei is the legitimate government of China, the USA will say no.
If you ask if Taiwan is an independent country, the USA will say no.
But if you ask if Taiwan is part of China, the USA will avoid answering, even though that's the only option left.
Wouldn't the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there's continuity from the former china government to Taiwan's, the people's republic is the newest entity.
No. The ROC has no more of a claim to be Chinas rightful ruler than the PRC does, except the PRC won the mainland.
Sure the KMT led by Sun Yat-sen overthrew the Monarchy, through revolution under a united nationalist front and formed the ROC.
But you can't ignore the decades after, during which a civil war and literally WW2 happened (which stopped the civil war).
During this time the KMT turned radically to the right under the leadership of Chiang Kai-Shek which led to a massive rift within China.
The CPC grew massively during the war and many of the left wing of the KMT sided with them.
The CPC carried out their own revolution against the current KMT and took control of the entire mainland while the KMT held only Taiwan (and carried out a little ethnic cleansing see: white terror).
The CPC then formed the official government of the PRC and was internationally recognized as the ruler of China, while the ROC continued to hold it's islands and claim rightful ruler over the mainland launching multiple attacks, by this time it was over, even the United States who had strongly supported the KMT over the CPC had no choice but to declare the PRC the rightful ruler of China.
So the KMT has a claim to rule all of China in the same sense that a Qing descendant would. They uses to rule sure, but they lost the revolution and their still existing doesn't grant them any power or recognition.
I'm not talking about who's 'rightful ruler' or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That's the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions. Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don't know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular. Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People's Republic aren't a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.