Where do you realistically expect the world to be in terms of meeting the 2050 climate goals?
With evidence mounting on the failure to limit global warming to 1.5C, do you think global carbon emissions will be low enough by 2050 to at least avoid the most catastrophic climate change doomsday scenarios forecast by the turn of the century?
I am somewhat hopeful most developed countries will get there but I wonder if developing countries will have the ability and inclination to buy into it as well.
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I don't think humanity is doomed. What I do see happening is a lot of areas that are landlocked becoming wayyyyyyy too expensive for normies to live in. You'll see the coasts become stupid expensive to live as domestic climate refugees roll in. You'll see tensions between locals and newcomers. And you'll see it on the macroscopic scale with wars and tensions over resources like water rights, jobs, immigration, and racial tensions. You'll see the rise of idiotic nationalism and people waving their country flag as justification for the "good old days".
We'll make it halfway, but we will still see devastating climate events often. Big floods, big drought, big hurricanes, skyrocketing insurance, weird stock issues on certain things like some medications, olive oil, cotton, etc. Humanity will be distracted by some of the dumbest shit imaginable while the grownups (scientists) try to focus on drawing down carbon to stay on target.
Luckily humans are very adaptable. History will judge companies like BP and standard oil harshly though, for basically fucking up the planet for centuries.
Skyrocketing insurance is already on the way. Places that don't outright lose access to insurers will continue to see massive increases over the next decade. US Insurers will all be following suit soon. Property insurance got killed last year and is already getting hit hard this year.
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2023/07/20/731434.htm
It's a very bad time to be an insurance company, especially with dead weight like Florida, and parts of Texas (hurricanes + mold/water damage from losing power for a week, lol) that are constantly getting destroyed and rebuilt on the exact same floodplains.
And California. There's a few reasons why a company as big as State Farm (the largest home insurer in the state) stopped writing new home policies there, largely the natural disaster risk.
https://calmatters.org/housing/2023/05/state-farm-california-insurance/
I agree with everything you’ve said and I know big oil has used the “individual responsibility” as a way of dodging their responsibility.
Big oil has a lot to answer for.
But so do we. In almost every country there’s been a “Green” party and choices for electors to make in regards to what regulation we’ve desired.
And the fact is we all have a lot of answer for.