Will evangelicals finally dump Trump in 2024?

Ralph Reed speaks during a Donald Trump campaign event on July 23, 2020, in Alpharetta, Ga. | John Amis/AP Photo

The big debate in Washington this week is about realism versus idealism. It played out first in foreign policy, when Joe Biden hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner.

Biden has made big claims about how democratic ideals are at the heart of American foreign policy; but he spent two days lavishing time and attention on Modi, who is persecuting Muslims and cracking down on public dissent from reporters and political opponents.

Biden needs India to be an ally against China and that priority outweighed the instinct to shun Modi for his creeping authoritarianism.

We talk about this debate all the time when it comes to American foreign policy.

But sometimes that same debate becomes central to American domestic politics as well.

And across town, just as Modi was wrapping up his joint address to Congress, evangelical conservatives from across the country were gathering at the Washington Hilton to hear from their own flawed partner: Donald Trump.

Well, actually not just Trump — Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and every major Republican candidate is scheduled to speak at the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority conference.

But, naturally, Trump is what religious conservatives are talking about. After all, he is the dominant frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination. And he is the group’s keynote speaker at their gala dinner on Saturday night. And he is also the politician about whom two things can be said:

One, his personal and public life makes a mockery of the Christian ideals of evangelical voters.

And, two, he is the person who has delivered more policy victories for these same voters than any other president.

The questions that evangelicals are debating in Washington this week are whether that deal with Trump was worth it… and whether they should renew the contract.

This week’s guest has a lot of thoughts about this. He is the founder and chairman of the Faith & Freedom Coalition, Ralph Reed.

Reed was recruited in 1989 by Pat Robertson, the late televangelist, to help run a new organization: the Christian Coalition.

It grew to be a powerful political group that cemented social conservatives as a core constituency of the Republican Party and made issues such as opposition to abortion rights non-negotiable policies in the GOP.

As you will hear in this episode, Ralph Reed is a political junkie. He left the Christian Coalition in 1997 and soon became one of the key strategists for George W. Bush.

And then in Obama’s first term, Reed struck up an unlikely friendship with a guy named Donald Trump.

He did for Trump what he does for every presidential candidate who comes calling for his advice: he explained how to win over evangelical voters, who make up about 60 percent of the Republican presidential primary electorate.

In his view it worked out pretty well: Evangelicals overwhelmingly backed the thrice-married New York playboy who famously botched Bible verses on the stump. And Trump kept his word when it came to their most important issue: appointing Supreme Court judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade.

So what will evangelicals do in the 2024 Republican presidential primary?

That is the question that Playbook co-author and Deep Dive host Ryan Lizza spoke with Reed about in a backroom at the Washington Hilton as his conference attendees filed in.