It's u/whitehouse

He's also not spoken to the president either who has attempted to call as well. Biden is not even running for president anymore

We can help make that happen

Canvass, Phone bank, Textbank, etc. for Texas Democrats:

https://www.mobilize.us/texasdemocrats/

Write letters to likely dem voters in Texas to make sure they turnout!

https://votefwd.org/campaigns

I doubt the VP and President disagree all that much about "we should give hurricane victims aid". The president can informally ask the VP to do simple tasks like "hey keep in touch with this governor and see if they need anything" when they think you'll do what they'd do. The VP can't act directly on things themselves

You also want to keep the person who might have to take over for the president at any moment to be in the loop at all times. You wouldn't want them scrambling to get caught up in the off chance they had to take over for the president

Keep in mind he's also refusing to meet with Biden

Today is the last day to register to vote in Texas. Make sure to double check your registration because of voter purges and vote!

See how to do so below. Note that there's only mail and in person registration and not online registration unlike most states. Registration by mail must be postmarked by today!

https://vote.gov/register/texas

She does have kids as a stepmother. They just apparently don't count that

Meanwhile Biden is considering calling a special session directly. It's not a commonly used presidential power but it is an option

They'd get sued pretty immediately for that. It's very explicitly against the law to do so. It's illegal to remove voters from registration anything beyond 90 days out from the election. Voting rights groups and DOJ have sued Alabama for doing so 84 days out, they'd absolutely sue for after voter registration deadlines

George Washington did not have any children by blood either, so got to be before 1789

Look at their comment history, they're likely trying to be funny but alas satire is hard on the internet when people can genuinely have such takes

That's actually not the full quote. The full quote show he was not talking about any of those issues at all. He was concerned with the allies being "liberal" and "communist"

It dawned on me today… The bad guys won in WWII. There were no “good guys” in that war. The controlling interests had a jump ball. If you look closely, you see the link between liberalism and communism in the Allied forces. Remember what Gen. Patton said and why they capped him.

https://xcancel.com/Highway_30/status/1596353423464611841

The leads in some of the latest Florida polls are now within margin of error of those polls

Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point

That's assuming the polling error goes the same way. That's not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling

Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance

They are primarily focusing on the main swing states for president, but Florida does matter a good amount in terms of the senate though. It's a rarer somewhat close pickup opportunity. With Montana not looking as great lately we'll likely need to flip either Texas senate or Florida senate to keep the senate control. Or there's the close race in Nebraska where Indepdent Osborn could give us a 49-49-1 senate if neither flip and we lose Montana

Gonna repeat what I said in a different comment:

Encourage people to try to vote early everywhere. Texas has early in person voting from Oct 21 – Nov 1

If you vote early, you'll have time to come back again in case there's some last minute changes to the polling places open or some other problem. Plus you also don't then have to worry about something like being sick on election day

The voter registration numbers are exceeding the population changes in Texas

Encourage people to try to vote early everywhere. Texas has early in person voting from Oct 21 – Nov 1

If you vote early, you'll have time to come back again in case there's some last minute changes to the polling places open or some other problem. Plus you also don't then have to worry about something like being sick on election day

Let's make it happen

Find how to register to vote for where you are

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

We can do more than just hope, we can help make it happen

Find how to register to vote for where you are

Find opportunities to volunteer for dems around you and online

Write letters to voters in swing states or in competitive downballot races

I encourage you to take some of the election anxiety and turn it into productive action. That could look like canvasing (door knocking) to phone banking, text banking, letter writing and more. Those all have been shown to increase voter turnout. If nothing else, it at least reduce some of the anxiety

• Here's a site that shows volunteer opportunities around you both in person and online
  • You can find canvasing, phone banking, text banking, etc. there
• Help write letters to swing states or competitive down ballot races
• Progressive turnout PAC's postcard to voters

Luckily the actual report has all that info

Underemployment stats look a bit better. The number of part-timer workers for economic reasons is slightly down. Was 4.7 million in August vs 4.5 million in September. By economic reasons the BLS defines that as

economic reason such as slack work or unfavorable business conditions, inability to find full-time work, or seasonal declines in demand.

Here's the stats by industry

Here's the overview they gave of that

In September, employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction

[...]

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.

A ~1.2 million increase in turnout could be significant enough to change the president and or senate race

Keep in mind trump only won texas by ~600 thousand votes in 2020

And Cruz won by only ~200 thousand votes in 2018

Encouraging news about that from the article

The biggest registration gains have been in the Democratic stronghold of Harris County and along the I-35 corridor, which now leans blue

Love the energy, we can turn that kind of energy into a blue texas

Volunteer for Texas dems

Write letters to voters in many states including Texas

That was my addition, to clarify

Can't tell how often the site you link updates but it is there. It's just not at 2nd on that listing. Given the "Talk Tuah" podcast being at #5 on that site, I'm going to assume it updates quite frequently

The 2nd largest was a ranking over the course of last year. See the Spotify 2023 podcast rankings linked in the Axios article

https://newsroom.spotify.com/2023-11-29/top-songs-artists-podcasts-albums-trends-2023/

Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either

Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens

We're not talking about national polling, however

That's not how your earlier comments are phrased. The earlier comments declare that this is a given structural bias and that it will always exist. How is entirely ignoring the 2012 election any more real than saying we can't be sure?

Strike just ended. They have a temporary deal that will extend the labor contract until January with a 62% pay increase over 6 year

Unclear about the automation part, though I know there was a previous offer to limit automation at least

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ship-queue-grows-us-ports-dockworker-strike-enters-third-day-2024-10-03/

I would change the link now, but for some reason every time I try to link to the Washington post, it fails to post properly on lemmy. It's extremely consistent and seems to be limited to juet the Washington post. Unsure why it happens

Even runs at a pretty good framerate people-who-take-every-outlier-poll-as-gospel

I assume you are talking about revisions to previous reports. Last week they actually had a revision showing the numbers last month were underestimates

From the article

The report followed on the heels of annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week that showed the economy is in much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.

The federal trade commission has started monopoly lawsuits after a number of big companies. Plus going after other anti-competitive practices. Here's just a handful of the latest FTC's actions:

• Judge rules that Google ‘is a monopolist’ in US antitrust case
  • Remedy sentencing in the near future
• FTC v. Amazon
• Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc.
• FTC Announces Rule Banning Noncompetes

  • Ongoing court battles about it

The federal reserve's interest rates are good chunk of what's going to determine inflation. Trump wants to gut their independence and force them to cut interest rates to near zero. That will make inflation explode

Mwanwhile the current administration is finally actually going after big monopolies after decades of inaction. Will take more time to go through the courts but that can bring down prices in some industries too. Do you think trump will really continue that or stop the lawsuits the minute he gets power?

Other Trump plans are extremely inflationary as well. He plans to put massive tarrifs on a lot of goods. His plans to do deportations that include US citizens will also raise prices too

Done now

My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful

Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to

Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020

? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%

Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes

Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either