Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates
nytimes.com
This works because almost all the US uses first-past-the-post elections for the Presidential general election. So you get outcomes like this:
Scenario 1:
Biden: 10 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 0 votes
Biden wins the state
Scenario 2:
Biden: 9 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 1 vote
Tied vote, decided by game of chance/lawsuit
Scenario 3:
Biden: 8 votes
Trump: 9 votes
Kennedy/Stein/West: 2 votes
Trump wins the state
This is why you see huge financial support from Republican billionaires for third party candidates who have no chance of winning.
You are viewing a single comment
Junior is not going to get that many Dem votes. He's clearly MAGA, or at least MAGA adjacent
His campaign is built around on attracting low-information voters, and he has a ton of money to do just that — Kennedy's vice-presidential pick is the former wife of a Google founder who broke up with him after allegedly sleeping with Musk.
Which still only appeals to MAGA supporters.
The Kennedy family name is something that has meaningful appeal to people who aren't like that and who don't know anything else. Put a bunch of money into ad campaigns emphasizing that over any actual policy position, and he may well peel off some votes from people like that.
That's not entirely true. There is one proven left-leaning group that can be drawn in by MAGA talking points, and that's the Antivax moms. During the height of the pandemic, QAnon influencers were pretty effective at getting the cruchy-granola-crystal-healing-antivax moms into Trump. The guys at the QAA Podcast covered it really well, but the indoctrination path was basically: The Vaccine is Bad-> The Pandemic is Fake/Overblown-> Face Masks Actually Help Child Traffickers ->You Know Who's Fighting Traffickers?Trump! Anyway, if an Antivax message can get these folks to support Trump, it can get them to support RFK.
People need to start looking at the polling around this. RFK is more of a threat than people realize.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4568220-biden-trump-kennedy-polling/amp/
“Only the other side will vote for this third party” is the constant refrain of someone about to lose because of a spoiler