Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.

cyd@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 90 points –
The presidential election isn't a toss-up
natesilver.net
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Young people don't answer polling calls, and I'm personally expecting the highest under 30 vote turnout ever. No one can predict where this will go.

I agree that polling has been off the last several cycles because it skews older and with that in mind I am asking out of sincere interest - what leads you to expect record turnout in the under-30 demographic?

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