The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024
cnn.com
- West Virginia - Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin
- Montana - Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
- Ohio - Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown
- Arizona - Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema
- Nevada - Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen
- Wisconsin - Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin
- Pennsylvania - Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey
- Michigan - Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring)
- Texas - Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz
- Florida - Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott
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I can attest to the seat for Ohio. Gerrymandering and Trumpism have turned this state red, when by most accounts it should have more variety. After seeing friggin J.D. Vance somehow getting elected albeit offering nothing other than support for Trump, then I can't see anyone blue winning the Senate seat until redistricting is finalized and fairer.
Gerrymandering really shouldn't impact state-wide races, mathematically, but it sure feels like it breeds a combination of complacency and defeatism that overcomes the math.
Gerrymandering does affect the smaller races that choose the people that make the election rules. These rules then effect how easy it is for those who can’t afford the time off work to queue for hours in their populated city, vs. the rancher who can go to his polling place when he needs and there will be no queue.
Or things like this:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/27/texas-voting-elections-mail-in-drop-off/
Very true.
What does redistricting have to do with a Senate seat?
People in the "minority" party districts get complacent that their district will be safe so there's lower turnout (Harris County in Tx, 3rd largest county in the country, heavily Democratic, had under 50% turnout in the 2020 elections). People in "majority" party districts feel like there's no hope they'll be represented, so they give up and don't vote.