If Polling Error Matches 2016 and 2020, Trump Is Ahead In 2024

ccunning@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 63 points –
realclearpolitics.com

Three caution points for Democrats...

  1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
  2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
  3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May
9

This is your regular reminder that the only poll that matters is on November 5th

also early voting is a thing in most states. So take the whole week and vote when it's convenient for you. That' means Saturday as well.

OP is right folks. If not for yourself vote for the women in your life. Help protect their right to govern their own bodies

Let's add to the list, almost four years of operatives infiltrating their way into the election certification process. Not to get too tinfoil hatty, but the addiction denial strategy almost worked last time, and while the same team that orchestrated it no longer occupied the White house, state officials open to the scheme likely won't make the same mistakes this time.

It's a different election now with Harris taking the Dem nomination, but 2020 was decided by about 40k votes spread across a few key states. The same polarization that makes polling almost impossible to do accurately also means people's opinions are equally hard to change. Don't try. Instead, focus your efforts on mobilizing voters to turn out. Organize and make a plan to get yourself to the polls and to bring a friend. Check vote.gov and make sure you're still registered and make sure the reasonable people in your life have too! Uncle ivermectin isn't changing his mind about the trans panic, but there's going to be a significant portion of the population that just doesn't have time to vote between working the jobs to stay afloat. Get them a mail in ballot!

I've checked my registration about 25 times this month after learning I had mysteriously dropped from the rolls in a swing state. Don't let some jackass take your opportunity to vote away. It may be our last change to finally stop hearing about every single stupid thing that comes out of the mouths of the worst people in government. Winning is the only way to fix what's broken in our system.

And if I read these tea leaves right, and interpret the look of those bird intestines...

::: spoiler Real Clear Politics - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report) Information for Real Clear Politics:

MBFC: Right-Center - Credibility: Medium - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source
:::

::: spoiler Search topics on Ground.News https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/08/13/cnns\_enten\_if\_poll\_error\_matches\_2016\_and\_2020\_trump\_is\_ahead.html#! ::: Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

Ooh, this is the first time I've seen a source reported as having "Medium" credibility by MBFC. Usually it's "High" or "Very High." Funny that the first time I see this is for a source that's reported to have a right wing bias. Kinda telling, that.

EDIT: Well, I'm a big smelly idiot. Read the response to this comment. I should always read the linked article before making remarks like this.

For what it’s worth this is just Real Clear Politics summarizing a CNN video

Here is the summary on CNN from the bot:

MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source