In any given exchange of violence for these actors, it is a pretty reliable bet to say that there will be about a 10:1 ratio of Palestinians versus Israelis killed. I expect that we will see between 10k and 20k Palestinians killed, and probably somewhere less than 2k total Israelis killed. I think there will be fewer people killed by bombs and bullets than by the blockade. I suspect 90% of the casualties will be civilians. I think that all of the people who die in fear and pain while hiding in their homes as well as those who die on the barricades will be forgotten in a year or so.
I also suspect that the remaining checks on Bibi’s already significant power will end, and that Hamas will effectively cease to exist as a political power.
Much like the 2.5 million Palestinians trapped in the Gaza strip, Hamas ain't going nowhere.
Shelling civilians will definitely make more Hamas members out of people still there as well
I don’t believe so. I think the question will be “What the fuck were they thinking and what did they achieve for this tremendous cost?”
If Hamas had coordinated a simultaneous attack from the West Bank along with air strikes from Syria etc., it would have been something. I personally think they still probably would have lost, especially because the US would surge weapons, but it would show a strategy.
This was just throwing lives away for less than nothing. You cannot deal with Netanyahu. Even the president of the fucking US couldn’t get him to fall in line with a less than far right policy. Hamas just dealt him the best hand he has yet held.
People don't join terrorist groups because they think they can win, they do it because they're so pissed off at the target they want to strike back.
People do think they can win. I do not consider the Taliban a terrorist group, but they were irregular forces that fought a war, and they won, in a limited sense. The IRA won, in a sense, both with the creation of the Free State and with the end of the Troubles. Mandela won, although the ANC was designated as a terrorist organization. Vietnam won.
The Black Panthers were an actual threat to the racist institutions in the US. The Weathermen were not. The Panthers had a strategy. The Weathermen were angry college students without training.
Didn't the Weathermen reveal COINTELPRO?
So just ignore history then huh?
I have literally no idea what you’re referring to here. I said absolutely nothing about ignoring history or the justification of either side.
I am saying this attack was stupidly executed. I could not think of a more stupid way of doing it. They exactly pissed off everyone while making zero impact on either Israeli occupational strength or military capability. In chess, they opened with pawn to F3. I have seen that memorably described as “the worst opening move, other than just resigning.”
It’s so astoundingly stupid that I just know something’s going to come to light later about it. Right now my best guess is a within-party struggle in Hamas. I would not be surprised if there’s factional fighting going on as well, or overtures being made. But I do not think Israel is going to make a compromise that doesn’t leave them toothless and involve the surrender of a lot of leadership.
History as in every country that has gotten bombed the fuck out in the last 100 or so years has spawned terrorist cells who then spawn others. What makes you think this time will ignore all of history and somehow be different.
I am not saying that this current conflict is going to end “terrorism” in Israel. I am saying it is going to end Hamas as a political force. The IDF will kill many, and intelligence services will target others in a “gloves off” fashion.
I am equally sure there will still be bombs on busses.
I don't think it will, Hamas leadership are likely cloistered in friendly countries and will continue regardless.
There always will be because it gets headlines, both sides of this conflict are quite familiar with civilian bombings.
Generally speaking - and we’re getting a bit more theoretical here - you cannot lead an organization like Hamas remotely. There are people on the ground in country who have a level of … enthusiasm … that when combined with charisma and their carefully maintained support networks will dislocate persons who have the disadvantage of communication delay and not being in the room for the meeting, as it were. Someone particularly famous can pull it off for a time if they have trusted lieutenants, but it’s precarious.
I doubt that Osama was in active control of Al Qaeda from Pakistan. These aren’t organizations that send an email that cc’s your boss. These people will shoot you if they think you’re weak or ineffective.
Figureheads aren't leaderships and that is generally what is referred to as "leadership". Almost every fighting force at this point is lead at ground level and coordinated with other services, even the cartels do it.
There simply won't be a Hamas to join going forward.
There will always be an existential enemy, always.
Their existence depended on their existence being more politically palatable than the level of effort necessary for their elimination.
A modern nation-state like Israel or the US relies on a principle of disproportionate response to deter aggression. You have the most far-right, violent, and most corrupt government in the history of the state in charge and, as a result of the scale and targets of the “unprovoked” attack, they have the support of the only countries whose support matters in situations like these. The level of violence executed against Israel was enough to piss it off, but not to hurt it at all. None of their very significant military capacity was diminished. Hamas doesn’t have an Air Force. They don’t have any SAMs to speak of. They are cut off from resupply. They have no armored vehicles nor the ability to defend against them in significant number. Their “artillery” consists of unguided rockets they can fire in a general direction and which inflict so little damage as to be militarily ignorable and which only count as a “terror weapon” because it helps Israeli propaganda. They are politically and geographically isolated. They will not be resupplied. Israel on the other hand has a blank check and supply lines that cannot be interrupted.
If Israel decides to effect a ground incursion, it will be over rubble. They will call in airstrikes from fighter-bombers that the Palestinians will not be able to defend against. This is not Afghanistan. This is not Ireland.
Netanyahu is going to proceed as if he has a mandate to end this, and he is a very hard person. I do not think it gave him enough inertia to do to Gaza what Putin did to Crimea - I don’t think they can simply call it part of Israel now - but there’s going to be a reckoning.
What we are seeing right now is the limited response. I’ve been on the wrong end of irregular infantry. I’ve never been on the wrong end of modern armor, air, and artillery. I don’t recommend either, but the effects of the latter are indescribable. That’s not even touching on intelligence and special services, who I am very certain are being tasked as we speak.
Life in Gaza is about to get intensely worse for civilians. It will remain much worse than it was long after the last shell gets fired.
I honestly cannot see any way that this results in anything but an across the board loss for hamas. I also think it’s going to crush Gaza. Making life in Gaza even worse than it was is really hard, but I think they managed to make sure that comes about.
Their existence depended on their existence being more politically palatable than the level of effort necessary for their elimination.
I agree, but all I am going to say is that it will be interesting to read additional facts as they start to come out in the next several years with leaks and memoirs.
I am not a conspiracy theorist. I don’t think Bush did 9/11 and I don’t think FDR did Pearl Harbor. Human failure in war - including intelligence failure - is a constant that has been observed from something as foundational as Clausewitz to the Want of a Horseshoe Nail.
The thing is America already tried bombing an idea out of existence twice in Vietnam and Afghanistan and it failed twice. I just don’t see how brutal conflict does anything more then inspire the next generation of extremist. We need to break the cycle of violence.
I’m not saying that the desire for Palestinian autonomy is going to be ended. I’m saying that Hamas-the-organization is going to cease to be an effective factor in it. It will be replaced by another organization, or several. I could certainly see another intifada coming out of this.
But you can most certainly bomb (and buy) an idea out of existence. There was a time when there existed a pan-Arab movement. Partly post-colonial, partly anti-Israel, partly Third World-ism in reaction to the Cold War, it tried to unite the Arab world across the borders drawn by the colonialist countries.
It went down in flames due to
Their inability to do the one thing they set as their biggest goal, which was the military conquest of Israel.
US and USSR intelligence operations, diplomatic engagement, and economic and military cooperation
Internal factionalism and personal greed
That’s actually where politicized Islam has its roots - in the defeat of modern, semi-socialist Arab internationalism. Looking back, we would probably have been better off with the pan-Arab movement becoming an entity that could make peace with Israel (like Egypt did) than have political Islam replace what at the end of the day was basic national aspirations in the post-colonial period.
What a useless statement. There is no way to break the cycle while Hamas exists. You know that.
Historically since 2008 to just before the conflict was 21:1, it'll be more 100:1 by the end.
I’ve been out of that business for a while and was going off of memory, so I’ll go with your numbers.
I do think the world will pull the plug on this particular situation before there are 100k Palestinians dead unless Iran or Syria gets involved. I think the problem is going to be that the rate of death is going to go vertical, and it won’t be possible to stop before it hits 10k, which could happen in a month or less depending on what they do with electricity and fuel.
It's what the UN states showed last I checked.
I remain hopeful I just think it's very unlikely anyone can or will step in.
I think that other states will step in, and I think Israel will step back and say “What the fuck did we do?”
But history doesn’t make me think that’s going to happen nearly soon enough.
In any given exchange of violence for these actors, it is a pretty reliable bet to say that there will be about a 10:1 ratio of Palestinians versus Israelis killed. I expect that we will see between 10k and 20k Palestinians killed, and probably somewhere less than 2k total Israelis killed. I think there will be fewer people killed by bombs and bullets than by the blockade. I suspect 90% of the casualties will be civilians. I think that all of the people who die in fear and pain while hiding in their homes as well as those who die on the barricades will be forgotten in a year or so.
I also suspect that the remaining checks on Bibi’s already significant power will end, and that Hamas will effectively cease to exist as a political power.
Much like the 2.5 million Palestinians trapped in the Gaza strip, Hamas ain't going nowhere.
Shelling civilians will definitely make more Hamas members out of people still there as well
I don’t believe so. I think the question will be “What the fuck were they thinking and what did they achieve for this tremendous cost?”
If Hamas had coordinated a simultaneous attack from the West Bank along with air strikes from Syria etc., it would have been something. I personally think they still probably would have lost, especially because the US would surge weapons, but it would show a strategy.
This was just throwing lives away for less than nothing. You cannot deal with Netanyahu. Even the president of the fucking US couldn’t get him to fall in line with a less than far right policy. Hamas just dealt him the best hand he has yet held.
People don't join terrorist groups because they think they can win, they do it because they're so pissed off at the target they want to strike back.
People do think they can win. I do not consider the Taliban a terrorist group, but they were irregular forces that fought a war, and they won, in a limited sense. The IRA won, in a sense, both with the creation of the Free State and with the end of the Troubles. Mandela won, although the ANC was designated as a terrorist organization. Vietnam won.
The Black Panthers were an actual threat to the racist institutions in the US. The Weathermen were not. The Panthers had a strategy. The Weathermen were angry college students without training.
Didn't the Weathermen reveal COINTELPRO?
So just ignore history then huh?
I have literally no idea what you’re referring to here. I said absolutely nothing about ignoring history or the justification of either side.
I am saying this attack was stupidly executed. I could not think of a more stupid way of doing it. They exactly pissed off everyone while making zero impact on either Israeli occupational strength or military capability. In chess, they opened with pawn to F3. I have seen that memorably described as “the worst opening move, other than just resigning.”
It’s so astoundingly stupid that I just know something’s going to come to light later about it. Right now my best guess is a within-party struggle in Hamas. I would not be surprised if there’s factional fighting going on as well, or overtures being made. But I do not think Israel is going to make a compromise that doesn’t leave them toothless and involve the surrender of a lot of leadership.
History as in every country that has gotten bombed the fuck out in the last 100 or so years has spawned terrorist cells who then spawn others. What makes you think this time will ignore all of history and somehow be different.
I am not saying that this current conflict is going to end “terrorism” in Israel. I am saying it is going to end Hamas as a political force. The IDF will kill many, and intelligence services will target others in a “gloves off” fashion.
I am equally sure there will still be bombs on busses.
I don't think it will, Hamas leadership are likely cloistered in friendly countries and will continue regardless.
There always will be because it gets headlines, both sides of this conflict are quite familiar with civilian bombings.
Generally speaking - and we’re getting a bit more theoretical here - you cannot lead an organization like Hamas remotely. There are people on the ground in country who have a level of … enthusiasm … that when combined with charisma and their carefully maintained support networks will dislocate persons who have the disadvantage of communication delay and not being in the room for the meeting, as it were. Someone particularly famous can pull it off for a time if they have trusted lieutenants, but it’s precarious.
I doubt that Osama was in active control of Al Qaeda from Pakistan. These aren’t organizations that send an email that cc’s your boss. These people will shoot you if they think you’re weak or ineffective.
Figureheads aren't leaderships and that is generally what is referred to as "leadership". Almost every fighting force at this point is lead at ground level and coordinated with other services, even the cartels do it.
There simply won't be a Hamas to join going forward.
There will always be an existential enemy, always.
Their existence depended on their existence being more politically palatable than the level of effort necessary for their elimination.
A modern nation-state like Israel or the US relies on a principle of disproportionate response to deter aggression. You have the most far-right, violent, and most corrupt government in the history of the state in charge and, as a result of the scale and targets of the “unprovoked” attack, they have the support of the only countries whose support matters in situations like these. The level of violence executed against Israel was enough to piss it off, but not to hurt it at all. None of their very significant military capacity was diminished. Hamas doesn’t have an Air Force. They don’t have any SAMs to speak of. They are cut off from resupply. They have no armored vehicles nor the ability to defend against them in significant number. Their “artillery” consists of unguided rockets they can fire in a general direction and which inflict so little damage as to be militarily ignorable and which only count as a “terror weapon” because it helps Israeli propaganda. They are politically and geographically isolated. They will not be resupplied. Israel on the other hand has a blank check and supply lines that cannot be interrupted.
If Israel decides to effect a ground incursion, it will be over rubble. They will call in airstrikes from fighter-bombers that the Palestinians will not be able to defend against. This is not Afghanistan. This is not Ireland.
Netanyahu is going to proceed as if he has a mandate to end this, and he is a very hard person. I do not think it gave him enough inertia to do to Gaza what Putin did to Crimea - I don’t think they can simply call it part of Israel now - but there’s going to be a reckoning.
What we are seeing right now is the limited response. I’ve been on the wrong end of irregular infantry. I’ve never been on the wrong end of modern armor, air, and artillery. I don’t recommend either, but the effects of the latter are indescribable. That’s not even touching on intelligence and special services, who I am very certain are being tasked as we speak.
Life in Gaza is about to get intensely worse for civilians. It will remain much worse than it was long after the last shell gets fired.
I honestly cannot see any way that this results in anything but an across the board loss for hamas. I also think it’s going to crush Gaza. Making life in Gaza even worse than it was is really hard, but I think they managed to make sure that comes about.
And, ya know, also Netanyahu/Israel themselves.
I agree, but all I am going to say is that it will be interesting to read additional facts as they start to come out in the next several years with leaks and memoirs.
I am not a conspiracy theorist. I don’t think Bush did 9/11 and I don’t think FDR did Pearl Harbor. Human failure in war - including intelligence failure - is a constant that has been observed from something as foundational as Clausewitz to the Want of a Horseshoe Nail.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail
The thing is America already tried bombing an idea out of existence twice in Vietnam and Afghanistan and it failed twice. I just don’t see how brutal conflict does anything more then inspire the next generation of extremist. We need to break the cycle of violence.
I’m not saying that the desire for Palestinian autonomy is going to be ended. I’m saying that Hamas-the-organization is going to cease to be an effective factor in it. It will be replaced by another organization, or several. I could certainly see another intifada coming out of this.
But you can most certainly bomb (and buy) an idea out of existence. There was a time when there existed a pan-Arab movement. Partly post-colonial, partly anti-Israel, partly Third World-ism in reaction to the Cold War, it tried to unite the Arab world across the borders drawn by the colonialist countries.
It went down in flames due to
That’s actually where politicized Islam has its roots - in the defeat of modern, semi-socialist Arab internationalism. Looking back, we would probably have been better off with the pan-Arab movement becoming an entity that could make peace with Israel (like Egypt did) than have political Islam replace what at the end of the day was basic national aspirations in the post-colonial period.
What a useless statement. There is no way to break the cycle while Hamas exists. You know that.
Historically since 2008 to just before the conflict was 21:1, it'll be more 100:1 by the end.
I’ve been out of that business for a while and was going off of memory, so I’ll go with your numbers.
I do think the world will pull the plug on this particular situation before there are 100k Palestinians dead unless Iran or Syria gets involved. I think the problem is going to be that the rate of death is going to go vertical, and it won’t be possible to stop before it hits 10k, which could happen in a month or less depending on what they do with electricity and fuel.
It's what the UN states showed last I checked.
I remain hopeful I just think it's very unlikely anyone can or will step in.
I think that other states will step in, and I think Israel will step back and say “What the fuck did we do?”
But history doesn’t make me think that’s going to happen nearly soon enough.