Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race

Beaver [she/her]@lemmy.ca to politics @lemmy.world – 917 points –
Kamala Harris Overtakes Trump in First Major Poll Since Biden Exit From Race
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On a national poll the dems need to be about 5 points ahead to be in with a shot of taking the electoral college.

This is a step in the right direction, lots of work to do though. I’m hopeful the more folks see of Harris, rather than their pre-existing largely meme originated opinions, the more they’ll like her.

No, they just need to be about 1% ahead in each of the the seven or eight swing states.

Which translates to about 3-5 points ahead in a national poll.

That seems like a dangerous inference to make…

Typically that’s how it works out. It’s not like it’s a hard and fast rule… but it’s generally pretty close.

I don’t think percent works like that.

They do when you take into account that democrats traditionally vastly over perform in their stronghold states like NY and CA in a way that's inefficient for the electoral college. It's why democrats usually win the popular vote even if they lose the election.

I think this number is a little high, but I really want to see a blowout so this is a great goal. The number I heard was about 3%.