Red State Polls Are ‘Looking Worse Than They Should’ for Trump

Rapidcreek@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 199 points –
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The cross tabs on the Pennsylvania poll are interesting.

The main reasons that Harris voters are supporting her candidacy include anti-Trumpism (18%), women’s rights (17%), character (15%), partisanship (13%), and democracy (13%).

The top reasons voters provide for supporting Trump include economic policy (29%), immigration (20%), and partisanship (19%).

She leads in every demo but 51-64, where she's slightly behind. Interestingly enough, she's got the 64+ demo by a good margin.

She leads in every demo but 51-64, where she’s slightly behind. Interestingly enough, she’s got the 64+ demo by a good margin.

So the very last of the boomers and early Gen X. Definitely interesting.

Everyone likes to bash boomers, but my parent’s generation (early Gen X) make up most of the craziest insane Trump voters.

Late Gen X, here. I'm embarrassed by the reactionary nonsense I've started to see regularly from my own generation. I'm lucky I didn't stay brainwashed with them.

where do you live/grow up?

I feel its more regional than generational

I see your point: I'm from the South. However, to be fair, these idiots seem to be everywhere now.

Leaded gas was banned in 1996. that cohort was born between 1960 and 1973, and would have been 23-36 at that point, meaning they spent the entirety of their developmental years surrounded by lead.

Correlation doesn't mean causation, but I would not be surprised if they found a link

Do you have a direct link to the poll? (Or is this the USA Today/Suffolk one?)

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted July 31 – August 11, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 920 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans, and 131 Independents.[1] The sample of voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education are estimated using data from the November 2022 CPS Voter Registration Supplement.

Interesting, so voters were informed by mail that there was a survey and the survey was conducted over the phone, can we conclude that the survey participants dialed IN to be surveyed? As opposed to the normal “cold calling” method?

I forget the exact numbers right now, but it's a little over 40% of calls made are ring no answer. A .further ~20% answer but the person called cannot be contacted. Then you have a % that says no.

To get around this, pollsters use an iterative process.

Yeah that makes sense. Frankly I’m stunned the ring-no-answer is that LOW. Probably a lot of legacy landlines?

IDK. If I see number come up on my mobile that I don't know I don't answer it.