Red State Polls Are ‘Looking Worse Than They Should’ for Trump

Rapidcreek@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 199 points –
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I think we’re all just sick of his shit. And want to be Americans, not stooges of a theocracy.

Still vote.

Young people get screwed by politicians because politicians know that young people talk big but don’t show up to vote.

Check your registration and vote or get ready for the handmaid’s tale

That’s one of those books I half rolled my eyes at. Then thought why not? See what the hype is.

It was both captivating and horrifying. Author is good which makes it an easy read.

There’s an afterward by the author. She and other academics were touring abroad including a part of the Middle East. A comment was made that at least this could never happen in the USA. And Margaret Atwood said yes it could, and ended up writing the book.

The killer piece of it is how chill and compliant people were in the beginning, as rights were rolled back. Like they couldn’t believe it so did nothing. And then a new society was around them.

Worse, this fictional work actually reads it started with the fall of Roe.

"it could never happen in this country" is one of the biggest lies of the american exceptionalism narrative that's force-fed to every citizen from birth onward. that, and "our perfection is constantly under attack by _______, and the republicans and jesus are your only means of safety." fill in the blank with whatever, depending on the time period, starting in "commies" in the 50s

GOP is trying to replace the word "billionaires" with the word "economy," i.e., "trump is great for the economy" really means trump is great for billionaires. which is true. but billionaires are not the economy. the stock market is not the economy. the economy is a large percentage of people buying wants AND needs instead of only needs. the economy is people having babies. buying houses, cars, and anything else that people aren't fucking buying. and every effort by biden or anyone else to take pressure off of not-billionaires is obstructed by the "great for the economy" GOP

That is very true & well said! If Lemmy has gold I’d give you some.

just don't let anyone start talking to you about the "economy" when they're really talking about billionaires

Yeah, I had some people tell me that they’re voting for trump because he’s “good for [their] investments.”

I pointed out voting for trump because he’s “good for your investments,” is like setting your house on fire because it’s “good for your heating bill.”

if GOP had their way, any savings on heating bills would be canceled out by the monthly subscription for coverage by the fire department, which the GOP privatized

This is why you should rent (when you set the fire). It'll be good for the heating bill and push the expenses to someone else. Capitalism!

The cross tabs on the Pennsylvania poll are interesting.

The main reasons that Harris voters are supporting her candidacy include anti-Trumpism (18%), women’s rights (17%), character (15%), partisanship (13%), and democracy (13%).

The top reasons voters provide for supporting Trump include economic policy (29%), immigration (20%), and partisanship (19%).

She leads in every demo but 51-64, where she's slightly behind. Interestingly enough, she's got the 64+ demo by a good margin.

She leads in every demo but 51-64, where she’s slightly behind. Interestingly enough, she’s got the 64+ demo by a good margin.

So the very last of the boomers and early Gen X. Definitely interesting.

Everyone likes to bash boomers, but my parent’s generation (early Gen X) make up most of the craziest insane Trump voters.

Late Gen X, here. I'm embarrassed by the reactionary nonsense I've started to see regularly from my own generation. I'm lucky I didn't stay brainwashed with them.

where do you live/grow up?

I feel its more regional than generational

I see your point: I'm from the South. However, to be fair, these idiots seem to be everywhere now.

Leaded gas was banned in 1996. that cohort was born between 1960 and 1973, and would have been 23-36 at that point, meaning they spent the entirety of their developmental years surrounded by lead.

Correlation doesn't mean causation, but I would not be surprised if they found a link

Do you have a direct link to the poll? (Or is this the USA Today/Suffolk one?)

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted July 31 – August 11, 2024. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. The data included in this release represent the responses of 920 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 411 Democrats, 378 Republicans, and 131 Independents.[1] The sample of voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography, vote history, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics. Estimates for age, geography, and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data. Gender and education are estimated using data from the November 2022 CPS Voter Registration Supplement.

Interesting, so voters were informed by mail that there was a survey and the survey was conducted over the phone, can we conclude that the survey participants dialed IN to be surveyed? As opposed to the normal “cold calling” method?

I forget the exact numbers right now, but it's a little over 40% of calls made are ring no answer. A .further ~20% answer but the person called cannot be contacted. Then you have a % that says no.

To get around this, pollsters use an iterative process.

Yeah that makes sense. Frankly I’m stunned the ring-no-answer is that LOW. Probably a lot of legacy landlines?

IDK. If I see number come up on my mobile that I don't know I don't answer it.