The Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks has forecast auroral activity on Thursday in Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Indiana, Maine and Maryland.
How are they making predictions five days in advance when all the public info I've been able to obtain from NWS only goes out three days and is usually not very accurate?
I'm also skeptical.
That article is dated yesterday as well, so an even earlier prediction.
Maybe there will be something - but my usual sources are currently all pointing to "meh"
Reality also seems to be pointing to "meh". The current forecast shows a very slight rise in about 24 hours when the Kp index might get up to around 4. I don't think that's enough to make visible auroras even from Southern Canada, let alone reaching down into the US.
They’re guessing, and no doubt fishing for clicks.
X-rays from flares travel at the speed of light and hit us in about 8 minutes. Solar energetic particles (related to flares) take minutes to hours. A coronal mass ejection usually takes about 3 days. At the moment we have no way of predicting them before they happen, so X-ray flares have no early warning because nothing is faster than the speed of light. We can see a CME erupt and know if it’s heading our way.
There are a couple of good sized sunspots at the moment that are facing towards us so the chances of something happening are decent, but we don’t know if and when and how much.
not if all the light pollution around me has anything to say about it!
Keep an eye on this site when Thursday rolls around.
My favorite is https://solarham.net/
Unfortunately, I have no idea how to understand what any of it means. But it's pretty much all the raw data you could want on solar activity.
Wow, that is a lot of... stuff I don't understand. Very cool though. Neat to have it all in one place.
Thanks for sharing! As I was reading this article I read thinking how cool a site, exactly like you posted, would be.
It would be nice if this article included a map, NOAA didn't have anything on it
Here's a map from University of Alaska Geophysical Institute: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/modules/custom/aurora-forecast/images/idl_graphics/north_america/NorthAmerica_6.png
How are they making predictions five days in advance when all the public info I've been able to obtain from NWS only goes out three days and is usually not very accurate?
I'm also skeptical.
That article is dated yesterday as well, so an even earlier prediction.
I've checked https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion and it looks to be saying it should remain relatively quiet into mid next week.
Maybe there will be something - but my usual sources are currently all pointing to "meh"
Reality also seems to be pointing to "meh". The current forecast shows a very slight rise in about 24 hours when the Kp index might get up to around 4. I don't think that's enough to make visible auroras even from Southern Canada, let alone reaching down into the US.
They’re guessing, and no doubt fishing for clicks.
X-rays from flares travel at the speed of light and hit us in about 8 minutes. Solar energetic particles (related to flares) take minutes to hours. A coronal mass ejection usually takes about 3 days. At the moment we have no way of predicting them before they happen, so X-ray flares have no early warning because nothing is faster than the speed of light. We can see a CME erupt and know if it’s heading our way.
There are a couple of good sized sunspots at the moment that are facing towards us so the chances of something happening are decent, but we don’t know if and when and how much.
not if all the light pollution around me has anything to say about it!