Judge’s warning provides dilemma for Trump over whether he will risk jail for a political point
Donald Trump and the judge presiding over his hush money trial are staring each other down with profound implications for the former president, the coming election and the rule of law in the United States.
Juan Merchan is now closer than any judge in American history to putting an ex-president behind bars after laying down a red line he says he may have no choice but to enforce if Trump does not start obeying the rules.
Merchan on Monday found Trump had yet again violated a gag order that precludes attacks on witnesses, the jury and others, days after he fined him $1,000 each for nine previous transgressions. But he noted that the defendant wasn’t getting the message and warned he would have to escalate if necessary and appropriate in the future, as much as he sees the option as a “last resort.”
…
The timing of the judge’s warning was significant because several moments of maximum stress are approaching for Trump with testimony expected soon from his former lawyer Michael Cohen and former adult film star Stormy Daniels.
I think he will not go to jail. And I do be not mean it like „buh, American system bad, they will never do it“, i mean it as in: they will put him on house arrest. Normal cloth. Normal food. Security at the door. If he continues to break the gag order and we reach contempt No. 20 then maybe (maybe!) we see him in an actual jail. Not before.
I'll go "buh, American system bad." My prediction - what you have described is the worst he will ever see, if convicted of everything he should be. That man will die of old age, wearing his own clothes, in his own house, living a 1% lifestyle, having never seen the inside of a cell, still claiming he won in 2020. Mark my words.
I'd love to be wrong, but I know I'm not.
I agree completely.
To add, I'm angry that facing the actual consequences is likely to make him more popular with his base.
✊
This does anger me. But what angers me more is the feeling that a significant factor in this kid gloves treatment is fear of how his supporters will react. It's literally handing power to fascist regressives.
The issue with a house arrest order would be that it fully denies Trump the ability to campaign for president, which (in his mind and his brainwashed constituency) is a political act and one that he has already prepared his goon squad to riot over. Buckle up buttercups, this should be fun.
That concern for the safety of the officials who would have to enforce an incarceration order is one of the things the judge specifically referenced in his statement.
They are not going to go crazy or anything. Here's why Trump is popular among the cud-chewers:
That's it. That's why long winded articles in The New Yorker and Vanity Fair about his many misdeeds don't sway his supporters. He does bad things and gets away with it.
As soon as he lost the election, he lost a lot of his power. J6 only happened because he was still in office at the time. He could still "get away with it", with help. Just putting him on trial takes away more of his influence, because he's not getting away with anything anymore.
If he is thrown in jail for contempt (or house arrest) I predict his supporters will be angry but not "go nuts" and attack anything. Fucking vote. This guy is clearly touchable.
Even that would drive him insane because there is no way they would let him post on his stupid Twitter clone while under house arrest and he wouldn't be able to campaign.
He would still be able to do those things from a jail cell. Violating hig gag order under house arrest would just mean more house arrest.
Surely the judge has the power to and would make it conditional on that.
Hahahahaha
No. It should be apparent from every other time that hlnothing has happened to shut him up that things will not change and no judge will ever actually shut him.
It sucks, but he will continue to be allowed to spout his bullshit even if the judge does try because SCOTUS will insist Trump gets to say whatever he wants.