Macron's Gambit seems to be yielding results. The clock has not run out yet, though.
Maybe not for him, he very well might lose his neolib majority in the assembly, but looks like it'll definitely pay off for France.
I'd be quite impressed if Macron sacrificed his position to fight the fascists.
I didn't think he had it in him. (And it seems he doesn't.)
Without snap elections the right would have torn him apart and endangered his foreign policy. The left is going to be a headache for him when it comes to internal policy... but OTOH also stop people from burning cars in the street with their policies. And they're quite likely to back him when it comes to Ukraine, his grand plan to Europeify French strategic autonomy, all that stuff.
Guy is still a man of boundless ambition and still wants to go down in history, and he can still do that with a left-dominated national assembly. Pension policy isn't exactly a corner stone to his visions for the history books, it's negotiable. Also just for the record it would be mistaken to have the impression that Macron thinks he's the second coming of Napoleon: Completely to the contrary, he thinks that Napoleon was the first coming of Macron.
And they’re quite likely to back him when it comes to Ukraine, his grand plan to Europeify French strategic autonomy, all that stuff.
Are they? I'm no expert on French politics, but I always thought Melenchon was a big deal on the left there, and he is anything but EU or Ukraine friendly.
Melenchon is definitely not in favour of Russia keeping Ukraine. If I were him I'd take the chance of left unification to silently give up all my previous positions on the Russsia/Ukraine thing. France overall is less hawkish than Macron when it comes to boots on the ground, when it comes to NATO -- Remember when Macron called NATO braindead? Melenchon doesn't like EU austerity politics and such stuff but he's not an Eurosceptic, he just wants a different Europe. His opposition to a European army was rooted in "an army against what", again, he should use the chance to make people forget what he said about Russia in the past, if he really wants to get out of NATO strengthening European security integration is the way to go. Though personally I think it's a good idea to have Europe overall in NATO after all someone has to keep somewhat of a leash on the US.
In any case foreign policy and security is presidential prerogative in France, Macron doesn't need the assembly to do anything there -- and the assembly doesn't need Macron to do other stuff. If either of the sides is smart they'll agree to disagree on a couple of things and not oppose each other too heavily, table any remaining issues until 2027 (next presidential elections).
Melenchon is definitely not in favour of Russia keeping Ukraine.
Isn't he? Last I checked he opposed sending arms for Ukraine to defend itself, supported Russia's annexation of Crimea, and said NATO was to blame for the war.
What Mélenchon thinks is of little consequence. All the left parties have put together the baselines of a common program, and supporting Ukraine is a big part of it.
Mélenchon is too disliked by the rest of the left to be considered for PM if it comes to that anyway, and all other potentiel candidates are strongly in favour of helping Ukraine.
Well, that's good to hear, then!
He condemned the invasion but yes his policies on the issue are generally shit. He's also not terribly popular as a unifying figurehead and candidate for becoming prime minister, though.
Basically it's the same vulgar pacifism that you also see from some European lefties elsewhere, "we need to give diplomacy a chance". I would be absolutely in favour of that if Russia ever gave it a chance, and if those chucklefucks wouldn't completely ignore Ukraine's sovereignty and instead substitute some "It's the CIA, again" narrative.
Ah. No, what he basically did is gamble on the fact that the left couldn't unite and that his candidates would face against the far-right, so he could once again campaign on the platform of "The only two options are me or the fascists".
The fact that the left managed to put aside their differences and unite completely took him by surprise and he now has to actually campaign. His main argument now is that the left is just as bad as the far-right and that he's the only reasonable person in the room.
You were right to think he didn't have it in him, because he definitely doesn't.
J'apprécie votre perspicacité, merci.
It's incredible, because by the looks of it, Macron's party seems to be the one that's reacting the worst to Macron's own move, the fascists haven't been caught on the wrong foot, and the real surprise is the leftist coalition that has been pacted in record time after they were at each other's throats during the European elections, so Macron might actually be the most fatal victim of his own strategy if he doesn't even make it to the second round.
The only scenario where macron totally fails is if the far right ends up winning.
You seem to be under the impression that Macron is fine with the left winning.
He's definitely not: he's been viciously attacking the left for years now, and has just last Sunday accused them of being antisemitic, antirepublican and antiparlentarist.
His Minister of Justice said in an interview that, in case of a duel between the left and the far-right during the election runoffs, he would vote for neither.
His prime minister keeps saying in Interviews that the left represents chaos for the country.
Macron's Gambit seems to be yielding results. The clock has not run out yet, though.
Maybe not for him, he very well might lose his neolib majority in the assembly, but looks like it'll definitely pay off for France.
I'd be quite impressed if Macron sacrificed his position to fight the fascists.
I didn't think he had it in him. (And it seems he doesn't.)
Without snap elections the right would have torn him apart and endangered his foreign policy. The left is going to be a headache for him when it comes to internal policy... but OTOH also stop people from burning cars in the street with their policies. And they're quite likely to back him when it comes to Ukraine, his grand plan to Europeify French strategic autonomy, all that stuff.
Guy is still a man of boundless ambition and still wants to go down in history, and he can still do that with a left-dominated national assembly. Pension policy isn't exactly a corner stone to his visions for the history books, it's negotiable. Also just for the record it would be mistaken to have the impression that Macron thinks he's the second coming of Napoleon: Completely to the contrary, he thinks that Napoleon was the first coming of Macron.
Are they? I'm no expert on French politics, but I always thought Melenchon was a big deal on the left there, and he is anything but EU or Ukraine friendly.
Melenchon is definitely not in favour of Russia keeping Ukraine. If I were him I'd take the chance of left unification to silently give up all my previous positions on the Russsia/Ukraine thing. France overall is less hawkish than Macron when it comes to boots on the ground, when it comes to NATO -- Remember when Macron called NATO braindead? Melenchon doesn't like EU austerity politics and such stuff but he's not an Eurosceptic, he just wants a different Europe. His opposition to a European army was rooted in "an army against what", again, he should use the chance to make people forget what he said about Russia in the past, if he really wants to get out of NATO strengthening European security integration is the way to go. Though personally I think it's a good idea to have Europe overall in NATO after all someone has to keep somewhat of a leash on the US.
In any case foreign policy and security is presidential prerogative in France, Macron doesn't need the assembly to do anything there -- and the assembly doesn't need Macron to do other stuff. If either of the sides is smart they'll agree to disagree on a couple of things and not oppose each other too heavily, table any remaining issues until 2027 (next presidential elections).
Isn't he? Last I checked he opposed sending arms for Ukraine to defend itself, supported Russia's annexation of Crimea, and said NATO was to blame for the war.
What Mélenchon thinks is of little consequence. All the left parties have put together the baselines of a common program, and supporting Ukraine is a big part of it.
Mélenchon is too disliked by the rest of the left to be considered for PM if it comes to that anyway, and all other potentiel candidates are strongly in favour of helping Ukraine.
Well, that's good to hear, then!
He condemned the invasion but yes his policies on the issue are generally shit. He's also not terribly popular as a unifying figurehead and candidate for becoming prime minister, though.
Basically it's the same vulgar pacifism that you also see from some European lefties elsewhere, "we need to give diplomacy a chance". I would be absolutely in favour of that if Russia ever gave it a chance, and if those chucklefucks wouldn't completely ignore Ukraine's sovereignty and instead substitute some "It's the CIA, again" narrative.
Ah. No, what he basically did is gamble on the fact that the left couldn't unite and that his candidates would face against the far-right, so he could once again campaign on the platform of "The only two options are me or the fascists".
The fact that the left managed to put aside their differences and unite completely took him by surprise and he now has to actually campaign. His main argument now is that the left is just as bad as the far-right and that he's the only reasonable person in the room.
You were right to think he didn't have it in him, because he definitely doesn't.
J'apprécie votre perspicacité, merci.
It's incredible, because by the looks of it, Macron's party seems to be the one that's reacting the worst to Macron's own move, the fascists haven't been caught on the wrong foot, and the real surprise is the leftist coalition that has been pacted in record time after they were at each other's throats during the European elections, so Macron might actually be the most fatal victim of his own strategy if he doesn't even make it to the second round.
The only scenario where macron totally fails is if the far right ends up winning.
You seem to be under the impression that Macron is fine with the left winning.
He's definitely not: he's been viciously attacking the left for years now, and has just last Sunday accused them of being antisemitic, antirepublican and antiparlentarist.
His Minister of Justice said in an interview that, in case of a duel between the left and the far-right during the election runoffs, he would vote for neither.
His prime minister keeps saying in Interviews that the left represents chaos for the country.
What? How did you mix up everything like that?