Could the United States be headed for a national divorce
chathamhouse.org
Could the blue states just ignore orders from the white house? Like if he orders them to round up illegal aliens? What could trump do about it?
Could the blue states just ignore orders from the white house? Like if he orders them to round up illegal aliens? What could trump do about it?
No, nothing Marjorie Taylor Greene says is remotely based in reality. There aren't secret Jewish space lasers either.
You can mostly ignore the article, it's just required in this sub. My real question is in the body.
The president generally can't order state employees to do something, he can only give orders to the federal employees.
Usually states and local governments cooperate with the federal government, but sometimes they don't. Notably, local governments in "sanctuary cities" stopped cooperating with immigration agents a while ago.
Exactly, so what could trump do? Seems like not much to me.
The president controls a lot of funds that are sent to state and local governments. When they want to play hardball, they sometimes threaten to cut off funding. However, courts can sometimes restore the funds.
And Trump being Trump, he might try to trump up federal charges (see what I did there?) against his opponents.
Trump has never really cared much for laws, or reality, if either happen to get in the way of what he wants. The danger if Trump wins this year is that he'll do exactly what he has said he will and go full fascist. We're talking Hitler/Stalin style rounding up political opposition or anyone he deems undesirable and sending them off to gulags/concentration camps or just plain having them executed.
In that regard it's not a question of if the law allows Trump to do something, it's a question of if anyone will be willing to stand up to stop him after he's seized full control of the federal executive and judicial branches and has his GOP allies in control of the legislative.
Worst case scenario it might come down to the military to stage an intervention and restore order, although at that point we're effectively looking at a military coup even if the ultimate goal is restoring democratic rule and upholding the constitution which is a whole can and a half of worms better left unopened.
That is where I wonder. Who would do his bidding. He can take control of all the courts and heads of things like the FBI, but would the rank and file follow clearly illegal orders. Like would they pull the trigger on an illegal execution? I kind of doubt it. Witholding funding seems like something people would do at his order. But many of the blue states tend to have higher populations, or higher costs of living that make me assume they give more money to the feds in taxes than the feds give back. Could they somehow intercept that and use it to replace the missing funds?
Many psychological experiments have shown that most people when ordered to do something by a person they perceive as an authority will follow those instructions even in cases where they feel the instructions are wrong. Most people just want to keep their head down and do their jobs. So yes, if Trump ordered them to, most rank and file would commit illegal actions. While I'd like to think most wouldn't be willing to murder someone, we've seen ample evidence that there are enough that follow Trump that would be more than willing to for someone to do it, and most would be unwilling to stop them even if they weren't willing to do it themselves.
We have seen all this before. Hitler didn't start off by committing genocide, Stalin didn't start by sending people to gulags. They start small with the things people are willing to do even if they feel it's wrong and slowly escalate. Stripping rights turns into imprisoning, which turns into murdering, and each step of the way everyone either says "I'm not doing it myself, I'm not responsible" or "They deserve it because they're a __ and I'm not".
I don’t think trump has the patience to start slowly. I also think that the brass,not the rank and file will be the one to find excuses to not do what is ordered. Not out of the goodness of their hearts, but out of self preservation. They don't want to end up as the fall guy.
What could Trump do about it? It would be up to the courts, and both sides would have to argue the legality of the orders. It already happened with the “non Muslim ban Muslim ban” Trump tried to enact when he was president previously.
A “national divorce” would mean civil war, and nobody wants that. Even the people that want that don’t really want the reality of a war on US soil.
But the courts can't force the blue states to do anything either really. Just ignoring the orders would mean that trump would need to start hostilities to make them do anything. And if I understand things right, the military isn't allowed to get involved in a conflict inside the country. But maybe I am wrong there?
Traditionally it comes down to the national guard. During desegregation the national guard was deployed to several southern states to enforce the law when southern states tried to ignore it. They're not officially military so they don't run afoul of the posse comitatus act, but they effectively serve the same function within US borders.
But why would they follow trump. As far as I know they are state funded, and answer to the governor normally. What would actually compell them?
It’s not blue states and red states. It’s cities and just about everywhere else.
In cities, people can’t so easily live with their heads up their asses and pretend their country is something else entirely.
Are there any US cities that vote R as a majority?
Edit: A few, but still. Where there are people, there is more liberalism:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/2020-election-map.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_the_50_largest_cities_in_the_United_States
There is no such thing as a "national divorce". What you are talking about is civil war. A civil war that Trump and his band of criminals wants to make happen. As of right now he couldn't do anything about it because he's not the president. I'm sure if it came down to it he would try to illegally deploy the military to achieve his nefarious goals, destroy democracy permanently, and plant himself in the position of dictator for life. He's said that he plans to do as much right out in public.
He said that as if we all hadn't seen how Palpatine seized power in Star Wars. Or, I don't know... Actual history or something.
I don’t think the military would follow. They wouldn't outright disobey, but they would stall with loopholes and what not. I read they were ordered to help with the rodney king riots, but when they were asked to do anything specific they denied the request based on legal questions about if they could. In the end they basically didn't do much at all. Most of the brass are poloticians, they know how to play the game.
If America is headed for a civil war, it will not look like one. I think Robert Evans' It Could Happen Here is probably the most realistic take.
Whenever I see any article about a potential second American civil war I can’t help but think, “Robert has already released a far better and more realistic version of this article”
If Trump wins the election, quite possibly. It honestly wouldn't be irrational for blue states to just start ignoring federal bans on abortions - or for states to introduce stricter smog/clean air standards and sue their neighbors.
Could blue states just practice civil disobedience as a "protest" against trump orders? What could Trump do about it?