If they can't get their shit together, will the 2 party system finally collapse?
No, just the government. If no new spending bill passes it will be pretty not great.
The two party system is the natural result of FPTP voting. We desperately need to switch to STAR or approval.
I like ranked ballots more. Just a bunch of easy binary decisions of which candidate I like more. With the other ones, I feel like I'm betraying my favourite if I rank or approve of anyone else equally.
Ranked is definitely superior to our current system. But it still has its flaws, which is why I didn't mention it.
The biggest flaw is with counting. Ranked isn't a purely additive process like STAR or approval, so you only ever get the results once they're complete rather than as you count. And that goes a long way towards trust in the system and auditing.
Ranked is also basically just FPTP, but with several layers. So the same flaws in FPTP are present within Ranked, just a bit muted.
But like I said, even ranked is better than the shit show we currently have.
Not sure I follow the "FPTP with layers" argument. After each layer, the votes go to the next choice rather than being wasted. Vote splitting gone. That's the bad part of FPTP taken care of.
There's still one winner, but proportional voting is orthogonal to ballot type
And you only get final results when all counting is complete, but ballot counts could definitely be published as they come in (N ballots with order ABCD, M ballots with order DBA, etc)
Not sure I follow the “FPTP with layers” argument. After each layer, the votes go to the next choice rather than being wasted.
Round one is a check for a +50% majority. If there is no majority, then it eliminates the lowest voted candidate and moves on.
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This first half is identical in function to FPTP voting. So ranked choice is basically FPTP but repeated a couple times with eliminations. Like I said, it is still definitely better than FPTP, but it has the possibility of vote splitting, albeit to a much smaller degree. A strategic voter wouldn't vote for their first pick first, but would instead vote for the closest candidate to them that has a high chance of winning. And that's the hole we are currently stuck in as is.
but ballot counts could definitely be published as they come in (N ballots with order ABCD, M ballots with order DBA, etc)
If there are 5 candidates in a given race, something that is rather common, then there would be 120 different orders. That's not data that is easily digestible or auditable. And that number gets exponentially worse the more candidates there are, and ideally we should have a good number of candidates to choose from to make sure we get the best one.
No, the two party 'system' is a natural byproduct of how our current election process works. If we saw the rise of a third party, it would eventually supplant one of the existing major parties, just like we've seen in the past.
Game theory favors two parties or at least two coalitions when a majority is required for something, unfortunately.
No,
If there is a legit schism in the Republican party a new party will be created. Either the new party or the current Republican party will die.
It's unlikely that 3 parties can exist with the campaign financing and ballot access laws that were designed to hamstring all minor parties.
Neither of the post schism parties would ever compete with the Democrats on elected numbers. A schism would be a huge gift to the Democrats.
The question is whether the new conservative party would push even further right wing as a whole. The Republicans had a schism in the late 2000s when the Tea Party was formed. When that movement was absorbed back into the Republican party, their ideology was pushed further to the right.
If they can't get their shit together, will the 2 party system finally collapse?
No, just the government. If no new spending bill passes it will be pretty not great.
The two party system is the natural result of FPTP voting. We desperately need to switch to STAR or approval.
I like ranked ballots more. Just a bunch of easy binary decisions of which candidate I like more. With the other ones, I feel like I'm betraying my favourite if I rank or approve of anyone else equally.
Ranked is definitely superior to our current system. But it still has its flaws, which is why I didn't mention it.
The biggest flaw is with counting. Ranked isn't a purely additive process like STAR or approval, so you only ever get the results once they're complete rather than as you count. And that goes a long way towards trust in the system and auditing.
Ranked is also basically just FPTP, but with several layers. So the same flaws in FPTP are present within Ranked, just a bit muted.
But like I said, even ranked is better than the shit show we currently have.
Not sure I follow the "FPTP with layers" argument. After each layer, the votes go to the next choice rather than being wasted. Vote splitting gone. That's the bad part of FPTP taken care of. There's still one winner, but proportional voting is orthogonal to ballot type
And you only get final results when all counting is complete, but ballot counts could definitely be published as they come in (N ballots with order ABCD, M ballots with order DBA, etc)
Round one is a check for a +50% majority. If there is no majority, then it eliminates the lowest voted candidate and moves on.
/\
|
This first half is identical in function to FPTP voting. So ranked choice is basically FPTP but repeated a couple times with eliminations. Like I said, it is still definitely better than FPTP, but it has the possibility of vote splitting, albeit to a much smaller degree. A strategic voter wouldn't vote for their first pick first, but would instead vote for the closest candidate to them that has a high chance of winning. And that's the hole we are currently stuck in as is.
If there are 5 candidates in a given race, something that is rather common, then there would be 120 different orders. That's not data that is easily digestible or auditable. And that number gets exponentially worse the more candidates there are, and ideally we should have a good number of candidates to choose from to make sure we get the best one.
No, the two party 'system' is a natural byproduct of how our current election process works. If we saw the rise of a third party, it would eventually supplant one of the existing major parties, just like we've seen in the past.
Game theory favors two parties or at least two coalitions when a majority is required for something, unfortunately.
No,
If there is a legit schism in the Republican party a new party will be created. Either the new party or the current Republican party will die.
It's unlikely that 3 parties can exist with the campaign financing and ballot access laws that were designed to hamstring all minor parties.
Neither of the post schism parties would ever compete with the Democrats on elected numbers. A schism would be a huge gift to the Democrats.
The question is whether the new conservative party would push even further right wing as a whole. The Republicans had a schism in the late 2000s when the Tea Party was formed. When that movement was absorbed back into the Republican party, their ideology was pushed further to the right.
Guess : cons. will make a deal with dems.