There's a war going on right now in Ukraine, helping them win it will make Russia launching a next war less likely and further off.
This is exactly what I am thinking as well. Russia is clearly threatening the stability of the EU right now. If the EU wants to send a strong signal against aggression and meddling, it needs support Ukraine in a way that makes it clear to any would-be-adversary, that the EU is willing and capable to defend itself and its allies.
Not to mention, it makes them less reliant on the US -- which as an American, means we can reduce our defense spending. Which means we can finally have really good welfare programs.
This has been disproven so many times. You don't lack social programs because of defense spending. Defense spending is only 3.5% of GDP. Your wildly inefficient private health care system, on the other hand, costs 16.6% of GDP and you still get worse outcomes, on average, compared to other OECD countries. If you brought your health care system in line with other OECD countries with a public health care system at around 11% of GDP, you could literally double the size of your military and still have tons of money left over to improve social programs and wipe out all medical debt (only 0.6% of GDP, but devastating to poorer families).
what are the odds Ukraine actually takes back their territory? The vaunted summer counteroffensive was a complete and abject failure
They stopped and presented most of their combat power when it looked like it was going to be a waste like Russia's recent offensives. They shifted to an attritional fight. You are right in line with the Russian narrative though.
High on taking back northern regions by Kiev, the northern parts and Odessa, medium on eastern territories, and low on Crimea.
Why do you think it's more likely that they will take back Crimea?
I said low likelihood they'd take back Crimea.
The message you replied to says odds, though.
Low odds means low likelihood right? I think technically odds are referred to in long and short, but that's weird.
Pretty sure a low likelihood yields high odds and vice versa.
Russia will be forced by NATO to do that, just like how Germany lost so many territories it conquered after WW1.
You do understand that Russia has nuclear weapons and it's ruled by psychopaths, which sort of make that sort of stuff very costly for literally the entire planet?
There's a war going on right now in Ukraine, helping them win it will make Russia launching a next war less likely and further off.
This is exactly what I am thinking as well. Russia is clearly threatening the stability of the EU right now. If the EU wants to send a strong signal against aggression and meddling, it needs support Ukraine in a way that makes it clear to any would-be-adversary, that the EU is willing and capable to defend itself and its allies.
Not to mention, it makes them less reliant on the US -- which as an American, means we can reduce our defense spending. Which means we can finally have really good welfare programs.
This has been disproven so many times. You don't lack social programs because of defense spending. Defense spending is only 3.5% of GDP. Your wildly inefficient private health care system, on the other hand, costs 16.6% of GDP and you still get worse outcomes, on average, compared to other OECD countries. If you brought your health care system in line with other OECD countries with a public health care system at around 11% of GDP, you could literally double the size of your military and still have tons of money left over to improve social programs and wipe out all medical debt (only 0.6% of GDP, but devastating to poorer families).
what are the odds Ukraine actually takes back their territory? The vaunted summer counteroffensive was a complete and abject failure
They stopped and presented most of their combat power when it looked like it was going to be a waste like Russia's recent offensives. They shifted to an attritional fight. You are right in line with the Russian narrative though.
High on taking back northern regions by Kiev, the northern parts and Odessa, medium on eastern territories, and low on Crimea.
Why do you think it's more likely that they will take back Crimea?
I said low likelihood they'd take back Crimea.
The message you replied to says odds, though.
Low odds means low likelihood right? I think technically odds are referred to in long and short, but that's weird.
Pretty sure a low likelihood yields high odds and vice versa.
LOL, Russia has already LOST the war. Now they are just desperately trying to take dirt.
Ukraine doesn't have to take back its territory.
Russia will be forced by NATO to do that, just like how Germany lost so many territories it conquered after WW1.
You do understand that Russia has nuclear weapons and it's ruled by psychopaths, which sort of make that sort of stuff very costly for literally the entire planet?