Russia's air force is barely able to leave its own airspace because Ukraine's defenses are so strong, UK intel says

canadaduane@lemmy.ca to Ukraine@sopuli.xyz – 175 points –
Russia's air force is barely able to leave its own airspace because Ukraine's defenses are so strong, UK intel says
businessinsider.com

While Russian pilots were managing to support land operations in the south of Ukraine, they were doing so "without decisive operational effect," the British Ministry of Defense said in its daily intelligence update on Monday.

To compensate, Russia was sending adapted free-fall bombs into Ukrainian territory. However, these had "yet to demonstrate consistent accuracy," it added.

"Over the summer, Russian tactical combat aircraft have typically carried out over 100 sorties a day, but these are almost always restricted to operating over Russian-controlled territory due to the threat from Ukrainian air defenses," the update said.

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Neither Russia nor Ukraine has been able to gain air superiority in the war so far despite Russia's vastly larger air force. But a military expert previously told Insider that the "advantage is with defense."

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Honestly I was expecting the headline to go in a totally different direction, something like "Russia's air force is barely able to leave its own airspace because of poor maintenence, parts and munitions shortages, and widespread alcoholism among flight crews".

Considering they've resorted to lobbing glide-modified free fall bombs, I wouldn't be surprised if some of this actually was due to stockpiles getting so low that they can't use guided munitions for anything but very high value targets (such as maternity hospitals and residential buildings)

Actually, it's cheaper to use empty old aircraft to bomb places than it is to shoot down said aircraft. It's a tactic to waste the anti air defence.

Ah yes, the Russian master strategists who are already running into serious issues with their airframe lifetimes and lack of experienced pilots are now flying sorties with unguided munitions because they want to get shot down.

No, a plane - including wear and tear on the airframe & power plant if it doesn't get itself tactically shot down to "waste enemy AD resources" - and a pilot are absolutely not worth less than a few air defense missiles. And no, they're not using "empty" planes

What're the vatniks gonna say next?

"Actually, it's cheaper to send underequiped mobniks into battle than it is to shoot them. It's a tactic to waste Ukrainian small arms ammunition"

"They're doing it on purpose" has to be my #1 favorite excuse for Russia's poor performance. Like, it acknowledges that something seemingly non-optimal is happening, but turns out it's actually some sort wildly ingenious plan that only looks stupid.

Still waiting for those super duper secret reserve elite troops with 999999999 T-14s and Su-57s to show up and mop the floor with the Ukrainians, like I've been promised for way too long now

I wouldn't doubt it, wasn't one of their excuses for failing at not shooting down the HIMARS that were killing their troops and destroying depots "the S400 missiles would be wasted shooting at something as cheap as a HIMARS"?

Ironic considering they sued the manufacturer of the S400 specifically because they were sold as being able to intercept HIMARS and are woefully unable to do so, even in ideal conditions.

There's no irony there: they know their lies aren't consistent since that's by design. They're showing their subjects that they can remake reality as they see fit.

Y'know, I've never shot an RPG. Hell, I'm a pretty shit American, I've never shot anything more powerful than an air rifle.

I'm pretty sure even I wouldn't do that.

now consider that it's one of most popular antitank weapons in the world, and primary one of that army, and it's used all the time because it's active frontline. i don't know how this happens

a pilot is more valuable than any AA missile

Just bail out with a parachute

the missile launches a second, smaller, parachute-seeking missile

Then take off the parachute and use a bucket of water

I'm open to the general idea that maybe it's hard to put an exact price tag on aircraft in Russia's specific situation -- I mean, maybe nobody is in the market for Russian military aircraft these days or something and if Russia doesn't intend to use them for something else, maybe you could make some kind of argument that the value is much-lower than one might expect.

But in general, I think that it's generally pretty hard to argue that a manned fighter jet is a good trade for a surface-to-air-missile.

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