If I have to see this false prophet Lichtman's bowl cut one more time, I swear to god... Here are just a few facts about this asshole:
It's really not some miracle that he got these elections right, considering he waits until last-minute to predict them.
He gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose later on in the race.
He hasn't given his fucking prediction for THIS cycle yet.
Even based on his own "keys," he is not remaining impartial because he has no idea whether an alternative candidate would get all the keys just the same.
He inflates incumbency despite Biden's 37% approval-rating and losing pre and post-first debate in polls... Which if you look at historical trends, that NEVER bodes well for the incumbent.
By the way I emailed this shithead challenging his methodology (and I remained much more neutral than this) to no response. In fact I wouldn't be the least-bit surprised if the only reason he wants Biden to remain the nominee is to ensure he maintains record for election predictions by later predicting his easy defeat.
Nate Silver has a far more predictive, mathematical model than this dumb fuck. He can Lichtma balls. (ok that last one I just had to out of adolescent gallows humor, but he threw the first punch with name-calling those wanting Biden to step down).
We are long past the point where it would have been feasible for Biden to withdraw. We were past that point well before the first debate. It is too late to get somebody else on the ballot in many states, including states that then Dems potentially need, like Nevada.
Anybody still repeating the line that Biden needs to withdraw is either:
Ignorant of how election law works
A bad actor, pushing right wing/Russian talking points.
Agreed. It's too late to promote some lesser known candidate enough to compete with the frothing rotten cult of personality stench that surrounds the orange rapist.
No it’s not. The last brokered convention was in 1952, it can happen again.
You can argue that it's not a good idea for Biden to withdraw. That doesnt make people who think the opposite either Russian operatives or ignorant of election law. It just does not.
Any other explanations?
They have a different opinion?
I mean, for the love of God - there are numerous Democrat politicians who are calling for a replacement. It's fucking childish to say all of those people are either Russians or ignorant of electorial law. I mean, grow up!
I don't understand how anyone who understands election law can seriously be suggesting a replacement.
So all the members of Biden's own party who want him replaced are Russian assets or don't understand electorial law? That's your point of view?
Yeah.
Does that make Biden a Russian disinformation agent for blowing the debate?
No, it just makes him an old guy with a lifelong speech impediment. Just like Trump is an old guy who is a lying rapist.
It’s a really hard choice.
Not being able to speak for ages and not being able to finish this sentences is not a speech impediment.
But yes, Trump is absolutely the worst. I doubt there's ever been a more venal, revolting president
TIL Jon Stewart is either ignorant or a bad actor. Does no one know how to read a poll?
Polls are massively inaccurate. Not just because of some sigma six level quantitative analysis, but because of the methodology.
People 45 and under don’t answer the phone. When my phone rings I immediately block the person forever unless it’s a contact as do most people that are millennials and younger. So pollsters rely on who answers the phone, which is usually angry grandpa.
You know that makes it more dire, right ? Right? If the Democratic base is older, and his approval is that low, what does that mean for millennials and younger?
If Bidens depending on Millennials and Gen Z to drag him across the finish line, and you think he can win, then I have a skibidi toilet in Ohio to sell ya.
Guess we better vote for the fascists then! That will be much better.
It’s not a binary choice. The people concerned about Biden aren’t going to vote for Trump. Emma and Sam explain it quite well.
No, it pretty much is binary at this point. It’s naive for you to think otherwise. Stop helping to elect fascists.
lol says who? I can name Senators, US House representatives, senior strategists for Obama, even a former DNC Chair who fucking say otherwise. Don't bullshit me.
You're not just wrong, you may very well be outright lying. Now show me your evidence or walk away.
A long shot is better than no shot; but I suspect a bad actor pushing Russian talking points such as yourself does know this.
None of that makes him wrong about this.
Yes, it actually does.
That's kind of — you know — the point.
Your response is like literally finger-in-ear, head-in-sand denial.
You haven't seen the press eat up every other utterance from Trump's mouth in the past 8 years? They report on every little thing he does because it creates ratings and clicks.
Well now it's funny because I hear both arguments simultaneously:
"Why are we talking about Biden when we SHOULD be talking about Trump!?"
"Why is the media giving Trump so much attention!?!?"
Regardless I'm less concerned about the past because that's written in stone, and I'm more concerned about the future that is still mutable.
"Why are we talking about Biden when we SHOULD be talking about Trump!?"
What I mean when I utter something like this is: "why are we laser-focused on a few of Biden's relatively minor (IN COMPARISON) gaffes/mistakes/issues/flaws when the laundry list of shit that's bad about Trump is TWO ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LARGER?"
If you count up every bad thing Trump has done that would be on looping repeat on fox news for weeks if Biden or Obama said/did it, you'd hit five digits before you got back to Trump talking about grabbing women by the pussy. It's fucking LUDICROUSLY one-sided. And non-fox stations are not much better. Think about it.
"Why is the media giving Trump so much attention!?!
So much POSITIVE attention.
I am in complete agreement with your analysis here. I fully agree there is a double-standard of expectations, and quite frankly has been, for well over 2 decades.
The question is: what do we do about it?
I watched every single day of the live coverage of the January 6th Hearings that went on throughout the summer of 2022. I watched the Impeachment hearings. I watched the Charlottesville reactions. I watched all the coverage of the criminal indictments and the criminal conviction. I've seen quite a bit on Project 2025 long before Biden's catastrophic debate. The problem is: truly, nothing is sticking. Why? Because right-wing media largely controls the narrative in this country, both thanks to the injection of billionaire money and corporations, but just the prevalence of unabashed conservative media, ranging from church and AM talk radio to Fox News on in every breakroom and doctor's office waiting-room in the country. They muddy the waters so effectively that no matter how loudly we point to these problems, they have talking-point to deflect, downplay, or muddy the waters of reality... And uninformed gullible apathetic voters lap that shit up.
The only thing we can really do is not make it easy for them. We can't give them an argument that actually has legitimate substance to it, like Biden's age and cognitive capacity. Look, to me the data is clear: 75% of Americans don't think Biden is fit to run again, and that Democrats would have better odds at defeating Trump with someone else. I'm in agreement. Every single data point I can find signals Trump sweeping the election. Mostly because the guy who supposedly holds the moral high ground can't shake his ego and step down for the greater good.
I am in complete agreement with your analysis here. I fully agree there is a double-standard of expectations, and quite frankly has been, for well over 2 decades.
Good to know you do agree with Lichtman after all.
Now that's an awfully cute strawman fallacy you've got there, buddy, but no that does not mean I buy the premise that asshole is saying in this article.
Will you listen if I explain why?
Depends on how many other incorrect catchphrases you're going to use.
Well considering nothing I said was countered, I win by default. So you better say yes or start mounting a substantive rebuttal.
I could care less about a rebuttal to you agreeing that the media has constantly reported on Trump.
If I have to see this false prophet Lichtman's bowl cut one more time, I swear to god... Here are just a few facts about this asshole:
By the way I emailed this shithead challenging his methodology (and I remained much more neutral than this) to no response. In fact I wouldn't be the least-bit surprised if the only reason he wants Biden to remain the nominee is to ensure he maintains record for election predictions by later predicting his easy defeat.
Nate Silver has a far more predictive, mathematical model than this dumb fuck. He can Lichtma balls. (ok that last one I just had to out of adolescent gallows humor, but he threw the first punch with name-calling those wanting Biden to step down).
We are long past the point where it would have been feasible for Biden to withdraw. We were past that point well before the first debate. It is too late to get somebody else on the ballot in many states, including states that then Dems potentially need, like Nevada.
Anybody still repeating the line that Biden needs to withdraw is either:
Ignorant of how election law works
A bad actor, pushing right wing/Russian talking points.
Agreed. It's too late to promote some lesser known candidate enough to compete with the frothing rotten cult of personality stench that surrounds the orange rapist.
No it’s not. The last brokered convention was in 1952, it can happen again.
You can argue that it's not a good idea for Biden to withdraw. That doesnt make people who think the opposite either Russian operatives or ignorant of election law. It just does not.
Any other explanations?
They have a different opinion? I mean, for the love of God - there are numerous Democrat politicians who are calling for a replacement. It's fucking childish to say all of those people are either Russians or ignorant of electorial law. I mean, grow up!
I don't understand how anyone who understands election law can seriously be suggesting a replacement.
For example, a new Democratic candidate wouldn't be eligible to be on the ballot in Ohio. It would be just handing a state to Trump.
So all the members of Biden's own party who want him replaced are Russian assets or don't understand electorial law? That's your point of view?
Yeah.
Does that make Biden a Russian disinformation agent for blowing the debate?
No, it just makes him an old guy with a lifelong speech impediment. Just like Trump is an old guy who is a lying rapist.
It’s a really hard choice.
Not being able to speak for ages and not being able to finish this sentences is not a speech impediment.
But yes, Trump is absolutely the worst. I doubt there's ever been a more venal, revolting president
TIL Jon Stewart is either ignorant or a bad actor. Does no one know how to read a poll?
Polls are massively inaccurate. Not just because of some sigma six level quantitative analysis, but because of the methodology.
People 45 and under don’t answer the phone. When my phone rings I immediately block the person forever unless it’s a contact as do most people that are millennials and younger. So pollsters rely on who answers the phone, which is usually angry grandpa.
You know that makes it more dire, right ? Right? If the Democratic base is older, and his approval is that low, what does that mean for millennials and younger?
If Bidens depending on Millennials and Gen Z to drag him across the finish line, and you think he can win, then I have a skibidi toilet in Ohio to sell ya.
Guess we better vote for the fascists then! That will be much better.
It’s not a binary choice. The people concerned about Biden aren’t going to vote for Trump. Emma and Sam explain it quite well.
No, it pretty much is binary at this point. It’s naive for you to think otherwise. Stop helping to elect fascists.
Everything is frozen’: Donors hold back dollars amid fallout over Biden’s candidacy
I did this? You’re giving me too much credit.
lol says who? I can name Senators, US House representatives, senior strategists for Obama, even a former DNC Chair who fucking say otherwise. Don't bullshit me.
You're not just wrong, you may very well be outright lying. Now show me your evidence or walk away.
A long shot is better than no shot; but I suspect a bad actor pushing Russian talking points such as yourself does know this.
None of that makes him wrong about this.
Yes, it actually does.
That's kind of — you know — the point.
Your response is like literally finger-in-ear, head-in-sand denial.
You haven't seen the press eat up every other utterance from Trump's mouth in the past 8 years? They report on every little thing he does because it creates ratings and clicks.
Well now it's funny because I hear both arguments simultaneously:
"Why are we talking about Biden when we SHOULD be talking about Trump!?"
"Why is the media giving Trump so much attention!?!?"
Regardless I'm less concerned about the past because that's written in stone, and I'm more concerned about the future that is still mutable.
What I mean when I utter something like this is: "why are we laser-focused on a few of Biden's relatively minor (IN COMPARISON) gaffes/mistakes/issues/flaws when the laundry list of shit that's bad about Trump is TWO ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LARGER?"
If you count up every bad thing Trump has done that would be on looping repeat on fox news for weeks if Biden or Obama said/did it, you'd hit five digits before you got back to Trump talking about grabbing women by the pussy. It's fucking LUDICROUSLY one-sided. And non-fox stations are not much better. Think about it.
So much POSITIVE attention.
I am in complete agreement with your analysis here. I fully agree there is a double-standard of expectations, and quite frankly has been, for well over 2 decades.
The question is: what do we do about it?
I watched every single day of the live coverage of the January 6th Hearings that went on throughout the summer of 2022. I watched the Impeachment hearings. I watched the Charlottesville reactions. I watched all the coverage of the criminal indictments and the criminal conviction. I've seen quite a bit on Project 2025 long before Biden's catastrophic debate. The problem is: truly, nothing is sticking. Why? Because right-wing media largely controls the narrative in this country, both thanks to the injection of billionaire money and corporations, but just the prevalence of unabashed conservative media, ranging from church and AM talk radio to Fox News on in every breakroom and doctor's office waiting-room in the country. They muddy the waters so effectively that no matter how loudly we point to these problems, they have talking-point to deflect, downplay, or muddy the waters of reality... And uninformed gullible apathetic voters lap that shit up.
The only thing we can really do is not make it easy for them. We can't give them an argument that actually has legitimate substance to it, like Biden's age and cognitive capacity. Look, to me the data is clear: 75% of Americans don't think Biden is fit to run again, and that Democrats would have better odds at defeating Trump with someone else. I'm in agreement. Every single data point I can find signals Trump sweeping the election. Mostly because the guy who supposedly holds the moral high ground can't shake his ego and step down for the greater good.
Good to know you do agree with Lichtman after all.
Now that's an awfully cute strawman fallacy you've got there, buddy, but no that does not mean I buy the premise that asshole is saying in this article.
Will you listen if I explain why?
Depends on how many other incorrect catchphrases you're going to use.
Well considering nothing I said was countered, I win by default. So you better say yes or start mounting a substantive rebuttal.
I could care less about a rebuttal to you agreeing that the media has constantly reported on Trump.
You do you, keyboard warrior.
Yeah that's what I thought.