The issue they have is, Trump can't win with just his base. He needs to appeal to at least some percentage of voters outside of that group. It seems like he's been doing everything he can to push anyone who isn't already all in on him away since Biden stepped down.
And yet Harris is only 2% in the lead.
America is a fucked up country. I pray for y’all.
America is three countries in a trenchcoat.
According to an interesting book I read a couple years ago called american nations, more like 9
Some scientists have posited the number could even be as high as 50.
We’re like the EU but with a fully federal budget and laws, which explains a lot
I used to be in favour of a federal europe until I saw America go to shit with Trump elected in 2016.
Now I’m more ambivalent. The confederation model sounds better…
(Confederation is an alliance where members retain sovriginity) Not talking about the US confederacy
Half the reason Trump succeeds as much as he does is due to designed corruption at the state level. Republicans grabbing local elections and using them to upend the system. From psychotic school boards to regressive judges to grandstanding attorneys general.
Flip that reasoning entirely, my dude. If the feds ran elections fully then Trump wouldn’t have needed to make the call to the GA Sec of State to “find” more votes. He would have just fired people until he got a yes from whatever federal employee could do it
No, because that's the entire point of project 2025. He wants to replace all those federal employees with political appointments so that he can actually do things like that. Trump would have loved it if he could just fire people until they do what he tells them to do. Thankfully that's not how most the federal government works. He wants to be able to control every Federal agency but thankfully that's not the way it's set up. It will be if he's elected though.
Cool I'll give it a read.
I think of America more as a swarm of 50 plus angry pigeons tied together at the neck with string.
Like a rat king with wings?
Wouldn't that be if they were connected at the tail? This is more of a disorganised avian garroting caused by a constant futile bid for meaningful independence.
Pigeon king.
Land of confusion.
Clink of coin.
Trump has never won the popular vote, his 2016 victory was based on highly gerrymandered areas with low populations and a high number of electoral votes. America is being held hostage by wealthy donors.
Yet he was leading in popular vote pols for a solid 9 months before Biden dropped out. If Biden had stayed, he would likely have won the popular vote.
We’ll never know, the only “poll” which matters is the election.
A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)
What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.
60% about
Problem is media reports on 60% as if it is a sure thing, when 40% is a really big chance…
Yeah that's much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, "there's no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote." How wrong I was.
I pray for y’all.
The US already has millions of Christians.
We need far more than prayers.
She's also been running for less than a month.
Well Biden was 2 points behind if you want to compare
He said the other day in the interview that his base is 75% of America, so...
The issue they have is, Trump can't win with just his base. He needs to appeal to at least some percentage of voters outside of that group. It seems like he's been doing everything he can to push anyone who isn't already all in on him away since Biden stepped down.
And yet Harris is only 2% in the lead.
America is a fucked up country. I pray for y’all.
America is three countries in a trenchcoat.
According to an interesting book I read a couple years ago called american nations, more like 9
Some scientists have posited the number could even be as high as 50.
We’re like the EU but with a fully federal budget and laws, which explains a lot
I used to be in favour of a federal europe until I saw America go to shit with Trump elected in 2016.
Now I’m more ambivalent. The confederation model sounds better…
(Confederation is an alliance where members retain sovriginity) Not talking about the US confederacy
Half the reason Trump succeeds as much as he does is due to designed corruption at the state level. Republicans grabbing local elections and using them to upend the system. From psychotic school boards to regressive judges to grandstanding attorneys general.
Flip that reasoning entirely, my dude. If the feds ran elections fully then Trump wouldn’t have needed to make the call to the GA Sec of State to “find” more votes. He would have just fired people until he got a yes from whatever federal employee could do it
No, because that's the entire point of project 2025. He wants to replace all those federal employees with political appointments so that he can actually do things like that. Trump would have loved it if he could just fire people until they do what he tells them to do. Thankfully that's not how most the federal government works. He wants to be able to control every Federal agency but thankfully that's not the way it's set up. It will be if he's elected though.
Cool I'll give it a read.
I think of America more as a swarm of 50 plus angry pigeons tied together at the neck with string.
Like a rat king with wings?
Wouldn't that be if they were connected at the tail? This is more of a disorganised avian garroting caused by a constant futile bid for meaningful independence.
Pigeon king.
Land of confusion.
Clink of coin.
Trump has never won the popular vote, his 2016 victory was based on highly gerrymandered areas with low populations and a high number of electoral votes. America is being held hostage by wealthy donors.
Yet he was leading in popular vote pols for a solid 9 months before Biden dropped out. If Biden had stayed, he would likely have won the popular vote.
We’ll never know, the only “poll” which matters is the election.
A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)
What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.
60% about
Problem is media reports on 60% as if it is a sure thing, when 40% is a really big chance…
Yeah that's much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, "there's no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote." How wrong I was.
The US already has millions of Christians.
We need far more than prayers.
She's also been running for less than a month.
Well Biden was 2 points behind if you want to compare
He said the other day in the interview that his base is 75% of America, so...
That is a problem they are trying to solve yes