Democrat Suozzi wins special election to replace Santos in New York

kescusay@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world – 322 points –
npr.org

Democrat Tom Suozzi has won the New York special election to the U.S. House, according to an AP race call. Suozzi will serve out the remainder of the term for former GOP Rep. George Santos, who was expelled from the House last year.

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IIRC, this is the district with suburban republicans that went ~+10 for Biden in 2020, then elected fucking Santos in ‘22. The pendulum has swung back to democrats and by a wide margin.

It's also a very Jewish district. A lot of pro-Israeli Jews are concerned about the "left wing" of the Democratic party not supporting Israel's genocide, and the Republicans were running an incredibly pro-Israel candidate. The combination of events made this race a lot closer than it might otherwise have been.

The Republican candidate is literally just an Israeli Defense Force solider.

So yeah, I guess it's accurate to call her an "incredibly pro-Israel candidate."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazi_Melesa_Pilip

"She is an Ethiopian Jew, and was born in Ethiopia. She immigrated to Israel when she was 12 years old, and later served in the Israel Defense Force's Paratroopers Brigade as a gunsmith. Pilip studied at the University of Haifa, where she earned a bachelor's degree in occupational therapy, and also at Tel Aviv University, where she earned a masters degree in diplomacy and security."

That said, Ethiopian Jews are treated like shit by a lot of my other fellow Jews sadly, so that may have been a part of it. I'm glad she lost, but I do think that was a factor.

Hopefully, there’s a ceasefire soon. The status quo cannot be maintained.

Biden is trying to save Israel from itself while still being supportive, as world opinion massively swings against Netanyahu.

Such a stupid fool's errand. Let the monster fall on his own sword or push him on, don't fuckjng try to avoid the inevitable... Stupid Democrats. Always useful idiots for tyrants.

biden should send in seal team 6 to assassinate Netanyahu and install an anti-genocide government in Israel and organize another round of accords, enforced by sanction mandates for noncompliance by the world's nations

This is the exact reason repubs were so hesitant to sanction Santos for so long. The shit had to become totally egregious before they took action because their majority was so slim. This is the worst outcome for them.

Had he been a dem, they would have been trying to kick him out from the first negative publication. And MTG would have held up photos of his dick.

This really highlights the difference between the parties, because if Santos had been a Democrat and the same shit had come out about him, Democrats would have been calling for his expulsion before any Republicans would have needed to.

I still maintain that Franken should have stuck around, cause fuck those fascists. They’re not playing by any fair rules so trying to take the high road is useless.

This is encouraging, although it should be noted that this is the guy who had the seat previously, but gave it up in an idiotic run for Governor. So everyone in the district knew him.

One bright spot, though, is that his opponent intended to hammer him on the open borders bullshit, and he successfully managed to deflect it. The unofficial Trump policy of sabotaging the border and blaming Democrats for it might not have as much traction as he thinks. (But since Donald Trump is in control of the party and can never be wrong, Republicans can't pivot away from it )

It’s looking to be Suozzi 56-44 or 57-43 when all is said and done

But does anybody actually believe this electorate would’ve voted for Trump by 5? The polls are clearly underestimating Biden

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The race was seen as a test of Democrats' ability to overcome attacks over President Biden's handling of the U.S. border with Mexico and convince voters that Republicans are unable to legislate in Washington.

Supporters of both candidates said a major influx of migrants into New York City is seriously impacting the district, which stretches from parts of working and middle class neighborhoods in Queens to wealthy suburbs in Nassau County, Long Island.

Her campaign focused heavily on blaming Suozzi for the record number of migrants entering the southwest border and the impact the broken immigration system is having in New York.

Other New York Republicans lawmakers, including GOP conference Chair Elise Stefanik, stumped for Pilip in Franklin Square in Nassau County.

Pilip and her GOP allies, on the ground and in paid campaign ads, link Suozzi to Biden, and to progressive Democrats in the House, often nicknamed "the Squad."

Suozzi, who was a member of the moderate "New Democrat" coalition, rejects that comparison, and repeatedly stresses his support for Israel, another major factor in this district with a high percentage of Jewish voters.

The original article contains 1,285 words, the summary contains 184 words. Saved 86%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

Is a "special election" like what we call a "by election" in the Commonwealth?

If so I don't know how much to read into this. In Parliamentary systems it's a well known fact that by elections tend to see a swing against the majority. So if the House is Republican controlled, you'd expect a swing towards the Democrats, even if at the next full election it goes back to Republican.

The one spanner in the works with that comparison is the President. In our system, the "government" is formed out of Parliament, so the majority in the House is the same as the party forming Government. Presidential systems don't have that, so maybe you'd be expecting a swing towards Republicans, in which case this is an even bigger win than it at first seems?

Is a “special election” like what we call a “by election” in the Commonwealth?

Basically, yes.

The thing with George Santos is that he wasn't kicked out of office by the usual means. He was criminally convicted and then impeached expelled.

So in order to ensure that Santos's constituency is still represented in government, they called an emergency election to pick his replacement. That's what the special election is, and what other places would call a by-election.

If so I don’t know how much to read into this. In Parliamentary systems it’s a well known fact that by elections tend to see a swing against the majority.

While true, this doesn't take into account the nature and publicity of Santos's crimes.

Remember that Santos defrauded and lied to his constituents in such a brazen manner that even Trump would blush, and with none of the cult backing. Santos was a GOP representative, so it makes sense for those pissed at Santos possibly also being pissed at the GOP for letting it happen.

And Santos's lies got more and more publicity as time went on. It became clear for a lot of people that this guy just wasn't what they voted for, and the man they did vote for was a complete and utter fabrication.

Special elections take place outside of normal election cycles for any number of reasons

Basically special elections are a "we need an election now and can't wait for the normal time"

I think people are reading WAAAAY too much into this. This election took place under very abnormal circumstances. The seat was open because the incumbent was expelled from congress for a variety of crimes and lies that got progressively more insane the longer he was in office. The winning candidate is a fairly conservative Democrat who campaigned heavily on supporting Israel in their war. The losing candidate was from the same party as the crazy person who was expelled and essentially campaigned on the fact thatshe was in the Israeli defense force and is extremely pro Israel.

I don't think any larger conclusions can be drawn from this race.

Special elections don't necessarily have any clear trend in and of themselves. The larger trend, and where this is significant, is that elections that occur within a presidential term tend to swing quite hard to the opposite party of that President. This is the main reason why the Republicans currently lead the House, but this effect has been much much smaller than it usually is, and so they have an exceedingly slim majority.

It generally bodes very well for Biden in 2024, because unlike polls, this is a test of the exact demographic, moderately wealthy suburbanites that value boring stability above all else, that he needs to do well with in order to win.

Since we have elections on a regular schedule for Congressional seats, the only way to have a special election is if a seat goes vacant for any reason. So since they are not held on Election Day, turnout can be an issue. People here are used to election day being in November, and may not bother with elections held at odd times during the year.

The media tends to make a big deal out of them because they make for good headlines, but the only trend they really track are whether the issues talked about in the campaign can drive turnout.