Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is already back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.
We'll still get a thousand stories about a looming recession.
Inflation is back near normal, but prices are not, and wages have not shifted to match those prices (partially due to the government fighting "wage inflation"). People are still worse off than they used to be. I don't think this is Biden's fault, but here we are anyway.
Biden has called this out. A lot of companies are still raising prices or aren't letting prices fall. They're still saying "oh, this is inflation causing this" while their costs fall and their profits rise.
Biden can't stop them singlehandedly. (He's a President, not a Supreme Dictator.) But he can call them out on it and use what powers he has to bear down on them somewhat if they don't stop.
It might not get all of them to stop (some might risk fines because the profits would be greater), but hopefully it will direct the anger towards the actual culprits - big companies taking advantage of past inflation to raise prices.
Biden can’t stop them singlehandedly.
No but since he couldn't stop them he decided the working class would pay the price and had the Federal Reserve fuck over the American people.
The Federal Reserve is independent of the President. They technically answer to Congress, but in reality it's to the big banks.
Powell was reappointed by Biden. Biden is responsible for what Powell does.
Those articles sure dont reflect the reality of me or anyone I know, by even a smidge
Personal feelings aside, those are the numbers. Empirical evidence that what people think is just plain wrong. Why? I suspect what Biden is saying is true.
Empirical evidence says I still have to skip grocery trips, and cant afford to fix my car.
So... I trust my lived in life over your numbers
Me and everybody I know are doing great. My empirical evidence seems to disagree with yours.
Too bad nothing can be done about that. If only someone, maybe a government agency, could collect all the data and determine how the country is doing as a whole.
Saying "the economy is turning up and things are getting better" when nothing changed is a lot different than saying "its all going to hell" when no one is struggling.
If you dont grok the difference, you were probably not at risk of the economy fucking you over like how people are frustrated about
But things have changed, that's the point. While individual experiences vary, all the economic data this year has been pretty stellar.
Reducing inflation this fast without tanking the economy, and not just not tanking it, actually having pretty decent economic numbers is a major achievement.
When the Fed stated raising rates to curtail inflation almost everyone thought there was no way to do it without a recession, maybe a major one, and increasing unemployment 2-3X. The "soft landing" seemed like a naive hope. We're not all the way there yet but it looks like they actually did it. Inflation is almost down to targets and at the same time, unemployment is still low, GDP growth is good, real wage growth beats inflation, etc.
It's not all blowjobs and caviar for everyone but we were heading for a major disaster and it's been avoided.
Except food is still extremely expensive, and real peoples dollars arent worth more, or getting paid more. The economic data doesnt seem to take into account things that actually matter to people who dont wear suits and golf.
The thing is, a lot of these "rich people" metrics have indirect effects on "normal people" metrics. So yes, while saying "the economy is good" doesn't mean much right now, it means that normal people will hopefully not struggle as much soon.
Oh nice, trickle down economics. Its cool to see someone who hasnt seen the sun on 4 decades, how are ya feelin bud? Thats not been an economic statement anyone takes seriously in a very long time
E: this message is 5 days old, why am I only just now getting notifications about it?
Oooh, the delayed notifications are all from the same instance. Interesting, I guess my instance lagged on touching base with your instance? Thats really odd.
You keep saying that, but that's not what the data shows. It shows real wage growth is exceeding inflation. It's also starting to show deflation across several categories of goods.
It sucks your wages haven't kept up with inflation and maybe eggs at your grocery store aren't any cheaper, but the data shows that your experience isn't typical.
The typical experience is surprisingly good and getting better.
You keep saying that, but that's not what the data shows. It shows real wage growth
For the already wealthy
is exceeding inflation.
Fixed it for you.
TL;DR - Don’t be a poor.
Yeah, you keep saying the data doesnt match reality, but last time the economy went to shit the data told us we were living a lie for 6 months before, magically, the data matched what everyone had been saying for a half year.
You think maybe, the data is fucking bullshit? Again?
Like how unemployment, the measured statistic, doesnt actually measure the unemployed? Just the recently fired who file for active job searching, and only for a specific window of time before they stop counting even if they are still jobless?
You think maybe, yet again, they are lying via statistics to try and make things sound good right before an election year? Since the data contradicts reality, and reality doesnt seem to give a shit?
Don't put words in my mouth. I never said the data doesn't match reality. I'm saying the data is reality, or are least the best measure of it we have.
You're the one insisting that your experiences are the only measure of reality, and since the data doesn't agree, it must be bullshit, instead of the much more likely explanation that your experiences aren't typical.
I'm not sure what you're referring to with the "6 months" thing, but if you're talking about the inflation rate spiking, the data wasn't wrong, the interpretation was. The data showed inflation up, every month, but the Fed thought it was "transitory". Eventually they realized "oh shit" it's not transitory and took action to bring it down while trying not to cause a recession at the same time. I'm no fan of the Fed in general, but credit where it's due, it looks like they did a damn good job.
I'm well aware of all the various measures of unemployment, and they're very good. Both short and long term unemployment are below what used to be considered maximum employment, and have been for a while. Underemployment is historically low. And after controlling for boomers aging out, workforce participation is trending upward. More people are working, more people are working full time, in jobs they're trained for (as opposed to having to take jobs they're overqualified for), and their wages are growing faster than inflation.
No, I don't think there is a vast conspiracy of thousands of federal workers, normal career employees, not political appointees, publishing fake numbers. The raw data is public and so is the origin. No one disagrees on what the numbers are, just what spin to put on it. Often, for political reasons, people will try to put a bad spin on good numbers, or a good spin on shitty numbers, but the numbers themselves are not in question.
I think you've been taken in by someone who wants to put a bad spin on good numbers. Numbers so good, if you had told me you thought we'd be here a year ago I would have laughed in your face.
Maybe, just maybe, the people doing well aren't lying to you, there isn't a conspiracy of government workers, and things are as all available data suggests.
Everyone has personal experiences which shape their thinking, that doesn’t mean their thinking is correct or even any more true than someone else's. I can trust that I feel what 2 feet is on a board, but it's better if I measure it before I cut it.
Deflation is bad. I promise you do not want what you are suggesting is required.
Infinite growth is impossible. Money is made up and stupid.
Okay, let's say infinite growth is impossible. That seems intuitive. If that's true, where's the ceiling? It sounds like you're worried that we're going to hit it and bounce off, so maybe we should be planning for this event. What would be the best things for us to do as a species to prepare for this potentially cataclysmic event?
Money is made up and stupid
You're made up and stupid. 😂 Just kidding, money IS made up, but it certainly isn't stupid. Money doesn't have any inherent intelligence, obviously, but I think your implying that we are stupid to keep using it as a medium of exchange? What would be a better alternative? Going back to the barter system?
Idk, money definitely seems better than that. It allows for greater skill specialization and for the construction of more complex economic systems. I know that can seem scary because there's so much going on to keep track of, but arguably most people participating in society prefer it this way.
Lol the people in this thread are piiiiiiiiiiiiissed. I've never seen factual, tame macroeconomics 101 get downvoted so hard like this.
Lemmings know a lot about operating systems, but by god do they make Raegan look like a triple PhD in economics.
"Deflation is bad" is somehow a hot take around here because it's either "I want prices to be back at 2019 levels and I refuse to hear that the resulting crisis will be worse than the Great Depression" or "I want to intentionally crash the economy to starve half the population to death and implement my stalinist policies. not necessarily in that order".
That's not why people are feeling pessimistic. Too much of the economic recovery is going to corporate profits and capitalist shareholders. The federal minimum wage is still half of a poverty wage, and the rent is still too damn high. The hyperinflation of the pandemic has made working for a living unsustainable. Taking inflation from 9% to 3% is great (setting aside for this conversation that any President shouldn't really take credit for economic matters) but it's reduce the rate at which a bad thing is getting worse. Existence is still unaffordable even with everybody employed. That's not spin, that's just the reality we've all been living in for a long time. The twin disasters of Trump and the pandemic put it all in stark relief, laying bare the grift of conservativism.
Biden is struggling because he's trying to play old politics. We've crossed the rubicon. Going back to normal isn't enough for people to feel hopeful, and reducing the rate of collapse isn't leadership. Biden thinks being at the helm while the ship slowly rights itself is the same as leadership, and there are enough people attacking him from the extreme other side that nobody is particularly happy with him.
That's not why people are feeling pessimistic
Everything you said is absolutely true and I agree with what is and should be happening.
However, the article is saying that surveyed people think the economy is crashing and unemployment is high.
I think it's fair for Biden to say, "hey, you fuckers keep telling me you want capitalism. This is what capitalism looks like. This is success in capitalism. It's up to the unions at this point in a capitalist system."
Even though like you said it isn't working. But not for the reasons why media makes it seem, which is what turns people to the right thinking that more extreme capitalism and deregulation will fix it!
The looming recession talk is over. They’re ready to start making real money in the stock market again and are tired of the impact the recession talk had this year. It’s no surprise that it’s been about bang on a year since the recession talk started as we came into 2023 and the stock market hit record highs as we’re coming into 2024.
It was all fabricated for… reasons. Big orgs wanted to lay people off for some reason. Investment bankers wanted to gobble up securities for cheaper. Real estate firms wanted to drive down the real cost of homes (higher interest rates = lower sale price but higher cost to families, firms benefit by paying cash). They wanted it so they made it happen. They no longer want it so it’ll end.
Indeed. Much as though I like my payments from JP Morgan, Jamie Diamon was one of the first to scream recession. He did that to increase his own wealth, not any other reason.
That's true but peoples wages haven't gone up at a rate that keeps pace so everyone still feels poor and can't buy the things they need. That's the big issue. That's not been fixed and there is no plan to fix it. Now we all just have to wait around until our wages start to increase but we all know how long that takes.
The problem is that there is no way to fix it without fucking shit up worse. Attempting to create deflation is bad for everyone as the economy will stop growing which will lead to job loss. A recession is another way to get it done, but then that would require high levels of unemployment, and still won't bring prices down.
We're seeing the best possible outcome right now where inflation is down and wages are rising faster than it, and housing prices are coming down, meaning we are on track for the issue of unaffordability to go away. The Fed seems to have pulled off what most people thought was impossible: a soft landing.
We're possibly witnessing something absolutely amazing. This is not to detract from the struggles people are experiencing, but the fact that they don't recognize how much better off they are then how it could have been is disappointing.
When I read the Forbes link I provided, I see that wages kept place with inflation for the last 2 and a half years. When I look at the news, I see unions getting wage consessions. Inflation was a factor, but that's been mitigated
You're speaking as if the majority of American workers are in a union.
It is true that the success of unions on wages effects the wages of non union workers,
Yes but when union membership is only at 10% what impact are you really talking about nationwide?
The 10% of union wages should still impact the rest of the industry, so the 10% of the workforce getting raises and concessions will force other companies to increase wages or benefits, even if it isn't as much as the unions' increases.
Rapidcreek was attempting to make the case that working class conditions are stable and rising. His points of union gains ignore vast swaths of people's material reality. Unions gaining ground in the past year is a great point, one I am not denying, however those gain are a very small fraction of the already small fraction of unionized workers.
Many of the contracts left many workers out of improvements. The UPS contract won by Teamsters for example was very vocal about how it ended a two tier pay scale system, but in reality it just created a new one for part time workers hired after the contract was signed. That's not to diminish from the gains made, but UPS's current model requires a huge segment of their work force to be part time, as they have high volume rush periods where inbound/outbound needs to be recieved/shipped quickly as their floor space cannot accommodate the volume. Those part time workers are essential so why should they be payed at a lower scale than full time employees? Many of those part time workers aren't as involved in union organizing and Teamsters have done a poor job bringing them into the fold, so when they vault their 85% approval of the contract, they neglect to mention what percentage didn't participate.
That is one example of how many of the gains won aren't what they appear at face value. Mainstream media also does a poor job reporting these nuances in labor fights. So again yes things are improving, but definitely not for everyone and it's not the rosy picture Rapidcreek was trying to paint.
Americans are not stupid. You will not convince them the economy is good by spitting out some numbers twisted from the data. They feel it. They know how easy or hard it is to make ends meet. They know their rent goes up every year while their wages do not.
And the harder is gets, the more radical the population becomes. Establishment democrats like Biden will not be able to maintain the status quo. Normally I wouldn't care but their incompetence has consequences. A Trump victory at this point may signal the end of the US as we know it. We cannot continue to stay asleep at the wheel.
Your purchasing power has fallen over 20% in the last 3 years. We're talking and average of around 7% real inflation per year. Not the official "~3%" the government puts out. That's over 3x higher than average over the last 4 decades.
The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).
When it comes to "literal starvation" or "overthrow the shackles of oppression" I have a fair idea of what a lot of locals will choose.
The problem is the goal of "overthrow the shackles of oppression" may be a valid goal with class self interest in mind..
But that desire can be manipulated into accomplishing the opposite. And the populist right has shown their ability to harness the fear and insecurity that is growing in this country.
We desperately need a renewed leftist movement that the average American can get behind. Without some sort of mass movement soon, I see things getting worse before they get better.
They forget that the second option is followed by feudalism. Do they want to be serfs? Because they will be literal property of the aristocratic classes if they elect Trump and let him destroy the constitution.
Fuedalism may seem like a utopian pipe dream with what is possible. Imagine a transition to an authoritarian surveillance capitalism state (something like China).
With AI, they can even read your thoughts. You get booked into the police because of something you posted online anonymously, they interrogate you while they read your thoughts. You believe in communism? Terrorist -> prison.
These things can happen faster than we expect. Hitler took Germany from a democracy to a hell hole in less than a decade.
It looks like all countries in the world are slowly converging on a mixture of the US and Chinese system. Capitalist corporations endowed with power by the state. No free market - a few large companies are easier to control. Strong executive power and theater democracy. Large prison populations.
Also, this isn't unique to Trump. The Democrats would bring us to the same destination, just slower. We need a new left. A mass movement like the mass protests of the 60s. That has historically been the only thing that can bring real and significant positive change to the American people.
I prefer not to depend on feelings. My feelings can sometimes be wrong.. isolated data is not a prefered indicator, because it must be interpreted to be meaningful.
I've put several links in this string that should address your point.
Feelings decide elections, not numbers. And a large majority of Americans do not have confidence in the economy.
These people, living day in and out under the system intuitively understand their position, even if they can't spit out figures at you. They recognize their lives are harder than their grandparents. They recognize they are working for less year after year.
Many of us are privileged- I know I am. We make good money working from home, not having any issues paying our expenses and saving for the future.
But we cannot let that privilege blind us into believing misleading optimistic figures. We are on the edge of a precipice, both economically, financially, and militarily. If the left doesn't do something soon, we will lose the next decade to fascism.
I understand. The fact is, however, that the economy is doing well by all measurements. These are figures, not optimistic, just numbers. The US came out of the pandemic economic depression robustly. Also, the fact is that the top percentile has accumulated wealth at unprecedented rates. I suspect we are on the cusp of a generational shift when higher paid older workers retire to be replaced by younger workers. That can never happen fast enough for the younger.
the top percentile has accumulated wealth at unprecedented rates.
YES, THAT'S THE FUCKING PROBLEM
Yes, a large one....
And he responded. Are those the end of your argument? Because as other poster said, statistics can be used to lie just as well as inform. You are familiar with this, correct?
If you have the stomach for getting in to the nitty gritty, pick one of your metrics and ill explain patiently why theyre bullshit.
(Good) Statistics don't lie, but they can deceive.
So, you want me address your data without addressing mine? I'm not going to get into an hour debate on a chat board for no ther reason but it bores me. Sorry.
"I don't want to put in the work but I'll go through the effort of letting you know I'm not doing work instead of just ignoring you"
You can simply ignore people if you're just going to use a lot of words to say nothing.
Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is already back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.
We'll still get a thousand stories about a looming recession.
Inflation is back near normal, but prices are not, and wages have not shifted to match those prices (partially due to the government fighting "wage inflation"). People are still worse off than they used to be. I don't think this is Biden's fault, but here we are anyway.
Biden has called this out. A lot of companies are still raising prices or aren't letting prices fall. They're still saying "oh, this is inflation causing this" while their costs fall and their profits rise.
Biden can't stop them singlehandedly. (He's a President, not a Supreme Dictator.) But he can call them out on it and use what powers he has to bear down on them somewhat if they don't stop.
It might not get all of them to stop (some might risk fines because the profits would be greater), but hopefully it will direct the anger towards the actual culprits - big companies taking advantage of past inflation to raise prices.
No but since he couldn't stop them he decided the working class would pay the price and had the Federal Reserve fuck over the American people.
The Federal Reserve is independent of the President. They technically answer to Congress, but in reality it's to the big banks.
Powell was reappointed by Biden. Biden is responsible for what Powell does.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/deflation-inflation-november-2023-in-one-chart.html
https://fortune.com/2023/12/12/wage-growth-exceeded-inflation-jec-democrats/
Those articles sure dont reflect the reality of me or anyone I know, by even a smidge
Personal feelings aside, those are the numbers. Empirical evidence that what people think is just plain wrong. Why? I suspect what Biden is saying is true.
Empirical evidence says I still have to skip grocery trips, and cant afford to fix my car.
So... I trust my lived in life over your numbers
Me and everybody I know are doing great. My empirical evidence seems to disagree with yours.
Too bad nothing can be done about that. If only someone, maybe a government agency, could collect all the data and determine how the country is doing as a whole.
Saying "the economy is turning up and things are getting better" when nothing changed is a lot different than saying "its all going to hell" when no one is struggling.
If you dont grok the difference, you were probably not at risk of the economy fucking you over like how people are frustrated about
But things have changed, that's the point. While individual experiences vary, all the economic data this year has been pretty stellar.
Reducing inflation this fast without tanking the economy, and not just not tanking it, actually having pretty decent economic numbers is a major achievement.
When the Fed stated raising rates to curtail inflation almost everyone thought there was no way to do it without a recession, maybe a major one, and increasing unemployment 2-3X. The "soft landing" seemed like a naive hope. We're not all the way there yet but it looks like they actually did it. Inflation is almost down to targets and at the same time, unemployment is still low, GDP growth is good, real wage growth beats inflation, etc.
It's not all blowjobs and caviar for everyone but we were heading for a major disaster and it's been avoided.
Except food is still extremely expensive, and real peoples dollars arent worth more, or getting paid more. The economic data doesnt seem to take into account things that actually matter to people who dont wear suits and golf.
The thing is, a lot of these "rich people" metrics have indirect effects on "normal people" metrics. So yes, while saying "the economy is good" doesn't mean much right now, it means that normal people will hopefully not struggle as much soon.
Oh nice, trickle down economics. Its cool to see someone who hasnt seen the sun on 4 decades, how are ya feelin bud? Thats not been an economic statement anyone takes seriously in a very long time
E: this message is 5 days old, why am I only just now getting notifications about it?
Oooh, the delayed notifications are all from the same instance. Interesting, I guess my instance lagged on touching base with your instance? Thats really odd.
You keep saying that, but that's not what the data shows. It shows real wage growth is exceeding inflation. It's also starting to show deflation across several categories of goods.
It sucks your wages haven't kept up with inflation and maybe eggs at your grocery store aren't any cheaper, but the data shows that your experience isn't typical.
The typical experience is surprisingly good and getting better.
For the already wealthy
Fixed it for you.
TL;DR - Don’t be a poor.
Yeah, you keep saying the data doesnt match reality, but last time the economy went to shit the data told us we were living a lie for 6 months before, magically, the data matched what everyone had been saying for a half year.
You think maybe, the data is fucking bullshit? Again?
Like how unemployment, the measured statistic, doesnt actually measure the unemployed? Just the recently fired who file for active job searching, and only for a specific window of time before they stop counting even if they are still jobless?
You think maybe, yet again, they are lying via statistics to try and make things sound good right before an election year? Since the data contradicts reality, and reality doesnt seem to give a shit?
Don't put words in my mouth. I never said the data doesn't match reality. I'm saying the data is reality, or are least the best measure of it we have.
You're the one insisting that your experiences are the only measure of reality, and since the data doesn't agree, it must be bullshit, instead of the much more likely explanation that your experiences aren't typical.
I'm not sure what you're referring to with the "6 months" thing, but if you're talking about the inflation rate spiking, the data wasn't wrong, the interpretation was. The data showed inflation up, every month, but the Fed thought it was "transitory". Eventually they realized "oh shit" it's not transitory and took action to bring it down while trying not to cause a recession at the same time. I'm no fan of the Fed in general, but credit where it's due, it looks like they did a damn good job.
I'm well aware of all the various measures of unemployment, and they're very good. Both short and long term unemployment are below what used to be considered maximum employment, and have been for a while. Underemployment is historically low. And after controlling for boomers aging out, workforce participation is trending upward. More people are working, more people are working full time, in jobs they're trained for (as opposed to having to take jobs they're overqualified for), and their wages are growing faster than inflation.
No, I don't think there is a vast conspiracy of thousands of federal workers, normal career employees, not political appointees, publishing fake numbers. The raw data is public and so is the origin. No one disagrees on what the numbers are, just what spin to put on it. Often, for political reasons, people will try to put a bad spin on good numbers, or a good spin on shitty numbers, but the numbers themselves are not in question.
I think you've been taken in by someone who wants to put a bad spin on good numbers. Numbers so good, if you had told me you thought we'd be here a year ago I would have laughed in your face.
Maybe, just maybe, the people doing well aren't lying to you, there isn't a conspiracy of government workers, and things are as all available data suggests.
Maybe your experiences just aren't typical.
~Yall this is NOT empirical, but anecdotal~. That said, I wish you prosperity and only happy feelings (:
edit: I am sarcasm blind, apparently
Yeah...we know. It's pretty clear wildginger was using it sarcastically and I was using the same words as them.
Oh ok sorry! It seemed maybe wildginger needed my pedantry more maybe. (っ^_^)っ💗
You would be wrong on that front as well, thanks
~I retract all pedantry and replace it with only positivity and good vibes then 🤗~
I stand corrected
^edited to hopefully seem more genuine
Is the condescention really necessary bud? I dont think anyone asked for it
Everyone has personal experiences which shape their thinking, that doesn’t mean their thinking is correct or even any more true than someone else's. I can trust that I feel what 2 feet is on a board, but it's better if I measure it before I cut it.
Deflation is bad. I promise you do not want what you are suggesting is required.
Infinite growth is impossible. Money is made up and stupid.
Okay, let's say infinite growth is impossible. That seems intuitive. If that's true, where's the ceiling? It sounds like you're worried that we're going to hit it and bounce off, so maybe we should be planning for this event. What would be the best things for us to do as a species to prepare for this potentially cataclysmic event?
You're made up and stupid. 😂 Just kidding, money IS made up, but it certainly isn't stupid. Money doesn't have any inherent intelligence, obviously, but I think your implying that we are stupid to keep using it as a medium of exchange? What would be a better alternative? Going back to the barter system?
Idk, money definitely seems better than that. It allows for greater skill specialization and for the construction of more complex economic systems. I know that can seem scary because there's so much going on to keep track of, but arguably most people participating in society prefer it this way.
Lol the people in this thread are piiiiiiiiiiiiissed. I've never seen factual, tame macroeconomics 101 get downvoted so hard like this.
Lemmings know a lot about operating systems, but by god do they make Raegan look like a triple PhD in economics.
"Deflation is bad" is somehow a hot take around here because it's either "I want prices to be back at 2019 levels and I refuse to hear that the resulting crisis will be worse than the Great Depression" or "I want to intentionally crash the economy to starve half the population to death and implement my stalinist policies. not necessarily in that order".
That's not why people are feeling pessimistic. Too much of the economic recovery is going to corporate profits and capitalist shareholders. The federal minimum wage is still half of a poverty wage, and the rent is still too damn high. The hyperinflation of the pandemic has made working for a living unsustainable. Taking inflation from 9% to 3% is great (setting aside for this conversation that any President shouldn't really take credit for economic matters) but it's reduce the rate at which a bad thing is getting worse. Existence is still unaffordable even with everybody employed. That's not spin, that's just the reality we've all been living in for a long time. The twin disasters of Trump and the pandemic put it all in stark relief, laying bare the grift of conservativism.
Biden is struggling because he's trying to play old politics. We've crossed the rubicon. Going back to normal isn't enough for people to feel hopeful, and reducing the rate of collapse isn't leadership. Biden thinks being at the helm while the ship slowly rights itself is the same as leadership, and there are enough people attacking him from the extreme other side that nobody is particularly happy with him.
Everything you said is absolutely true and I agree with what is and should be happening.
However, the article is saying that surveyed people think the economy is crashing and unemployment is high.
I think it's fair for Biden to say, "hey, you fuckers keep telling me you want capitalism. This is what capitalism looks like. This is success in capitalism. It's up to the unions at this point in a capitalist system."
Even though like you said it isn't working. But not for the reasons why media makes it seem, which is what turns people to the right thinking that more extreme capitalism and deregulation will fix it!
The looming recession talk is over. They’re ready to start making real money in the stock market again and are tired of the impact the recession talk had this year. It’s no surprise that it’s been about bang on a year since the recession talk started as we came into 2023 and the stock market hit record highs as we’re coming into 2024.
It was all fabricated for… reasons. Big orgs wanted to lay people off for some reason. Investment bankers wanted to gobble up securities for cheaper. Real estate firms wanted to drive down the real cost of homes (higher interest rates = lower sale price but higher cost to families, firms benefit by paying cash). They wanted it so they made it happen. They no longer want it so it’ll end.
Indeed. Much as though I like my payments from JP Morgan, Jamie Diamon was one of the first to scream recession. He did that to increase his own wealth, not any other reason.
That's true but peoples wages haven't gone up at a rate that keeps pace so everyone still feels poor and can't buy the things they need. That's the big issue. That's not been fixed and there is no plan to fix it. Now we all just have to wait around until our wages start to increase but we all know how long that takes.
The problem is that there is no way to fix it without fucking shit up worse. Attempting to create deflation is bad for everyone as the economy will stop growing which will lead to job loss. A recession is another way to get it done, but then that would require high levels of unemployment, and still won't bring prices down.
We're seeing the best possible outcome right now where inflation is down and wages are rising faster than it, and housing prices are coming down, meaning we are on track for the issue of unaffordability to go away. The Fed seems to have pulled off what most people thought was impossible: a soft landing.
We're possibly witnessing something absolutely amazing. This is not to detract from the struggles people are experiencing, but the fact that they don't recognize how much better off they are then how it could have been is disappointing.
When I read the Forbes link I provided, I see that wages kept place with inflation for the last 2 and a half years. When I look at the news, I see unions getting wage consessions. Inflation was a factor, but that's been mitigated
You're speaking as if the majority of American workers are in a union.
It is true that the success of unions on wages effects the wages of non union workers,
Yes but when union membership is only at 10% what impact are you really talking about nationwide?
The 10% of union wages should still impact the rest of the industry, so the 10% of the workforce getting raises and concessions will force other companies to increase wages or benefits, even if it isn't as much as the unions' increases.
Rapidcreek was attempting to make the case that working class conditions are stable and rising. His points of union gains ignore vast swaths of people's material reality. Unions gaining ground in the past year is a great point, one I am not denying, however those gain are a very small fraction of the already small fraction of unionized workers.
Many of the contracts left many workers out of improvements. The UPS contract won by Teamsters for example was very vocal about how it ended a two tier pay scale system, but in reality it just created a new one for part time workers hired after the contract was signed. That's not to diminish from the gains made, but UPS's current model requires a huge segment of their work force to be part time, as they have high volume rush periods where inbound/outbound needs to be recieved/shipped quickly as their floor space cannot accommodate the volume. Those part time workers are essential so why should they be payed at a lower scale than full time employees? Many of those part time workers aren't as involved in union organizing and Teamsters have done a poor job bringing them into the fold, so when they vault their 85% approval of the contract, they neglect to mention what percentage didn't participate.
That is one example of how many of the gains won aren't what they appear at face value. Mainstream media also does a poor job reporting these nuances in labor fights. So again yes things are improving, but definitely not for everyone and it's not the rosy picture Rapidcreek was trying to paint.
Americans are not stupid. You will not convince them the economy is good by spitting out some numbers twisted from the data. They feel it. They know how easy or hard it is to make ends meet. They know their rent goes up every year while their wages do not.
And the harder is gets, the more radical the population becomes. Establishment democrats like Biden will not be able to maintain the status quo. Normally I wouldn't care but their incompetence has consequences. A Trump victory at this point may signal the end of the US as we know it. We cannot continue to stay asleep at the wheel.
Your purchasing power has fallen over 20% in the last 3 years. We're talking and average of around 7% real inflation per year. Not the official "~3%" the government puts out. That's over 3x higher than average over the last 4 decades.
The economy has been bad, but that doesn't change that it is getting better on many important metrics. These are leading indicators, predicting what will be, but the effects that people are feeling are more like lagging indicators that are reacting to the past and present. Hopefully we see these predictions play out in the next year before the election and into the next presidency.
What we're going to see is a slight boost in the coming months as the federal reserve lowers the interest rate (by coincidence, also an election year 🤔)
But with the interest rate going down, the main barrier holding us back from higher inflation is being torn down. What will be the consequences of this? Prices will rise.
I think they are betting that the Ukrainian war ends in the next few months. If not ends, at least becomes a frozen conflict. This would remove a large inflationary pressure from the global system.
It's a gamble. Perhaps they even are negotiating with Russia behind the scenes. Russian high-level officials were spotted flying to DC last week.
We'll have to see. Hopefully they can end the war and lower interest rates. That would in effect give a large boost right before the 2024 election. Is that enough to pry the election away from Trump? I don't know. Biden is incredibly unpopular (even more unpopular than Trump at this same time! One of the least popular presidents in history).
When it comes to "literal starvation" or "overthrow the shackles of oppression" I have a fair idea of what a lot of locals will choose.
The problem is the goal of "overthrow the shackles of oppression" may be a valid goal with class self interest in mind..
But that desire can be manipulated into accomplishing the opposite. And the populist right has shown their ability to harness the fear and insecurity that is growing in this country.
We desperately need a renewed leftist movement that the average American can get behind. Without some sort of mass movement soon, I see things getting worse before they get better.
They forget that the second option is followed by feudalism. Do they want to be serfs? Because they will be literal property of the aristocratic classes if they elect Trump and let him destroy the constitution.
Fuedalism may seem like a utopian pipe dream with what is possible. Imagine a transition to an authoritarian surveillance capitalism state (something like China).
With AI, they can even read your thoughts. You get booked into the police because of something you posted online anonymously, they interrogate you while they read your thoughts. You believe in communism? Terrorist -> prison.
These things can happen faster than we expect. Hitler took Germany from a democracy to a hell hole in less than a decade.
It looks like all countries in the world are slowly converging on a mixture of the US and Chinese system. Capitalist corporations endowed with power by the state. No free market - a few large companies are easier to control. Strong executive power and theater democracy. Large prison populations.
Also, this isn't unique to Trump. The Democrats would bring us to the same destination, just slower. We need a new left. A mass movement like the mass protests of the 60s. That has historically been the only thing that can bring real and significant positive change to the American people.
I prefer not to depend on feelings. My feelings can sometimes be wrong.. isolated data is not a prefered indicator, because it must be interpreted to be meaningful.
I've put several links in this string that should address your point.
Feelings decide elections, not numbers. And a large majority of Americans do not have confidence in the economy.
These people, living day in and out under the system intuitively understand their position, even if they can't spit out figures at you. They recognize their lives are harder than their grandparents. They recognize they are working for less year after year.
Many of us are privileged- I know I am. We make good money working from home, not having any issues paying our expenses and saving for the future.
But we cannot let that privilege blind us into believing misleading optimistic figures. We are on the edge of a precipice, both economically, financially, and militarily. If the left doesn't do something soon, we will lose the next decade to fascism.
I understand. The fact is, however, that the economy is doing well by all measurements. These are figures, not optimistic, just numbers. The US came out of the pandemic economic depression robustly. Also, the fact is that the top percentile has accumulated wealth at unprecedented rates. I suspect we are on the cusp of a generational shift when higher paid older workers retire to be replaced by younger workers. That can never happen fast enough for the younger.
YES, THAT'S THE FUCKING PROBLEM
Yes, a large one....
And he responded. Are those the end of your argument? Because as other poster said, statistics can be used to lie just as well as inform. You are familiar with this, correct?
If you have the stomach for getting in to the nitty gritty, pick one of your metrics and ill explain patiently why theyre bullshit.
(Good) Statistics don't lie, but they can deceive.
So, you want me address your data without addressing mine? I'm not going to get into an hour debate on a chat board for no ther reason but it bores me. Sorry.
"I don't want to put in the work but I'll go through the effort of letting you know I'm not doing work instead of just ignoring you"
You can simply ignore people if you're just going to use a lot of words to say nothing.
No one has been talking about a recession lately. The stories have all been shit is too expensive for the majority of Americans.
And...well...they're true.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/deflation-inflation-november-2023-in-one-chart.html
Alternatively, "The Economy Is Booming And Everyone Is Doing Better, Here's Why This Is Bad News For Biden!"
Well, consider me an a shitload of people I know and see stories about daily "nobody"
You haven't noticed? They've moved on to this election cycle's migrant caravan. Like fucking clockwork.