The polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right? | Politico
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It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.
It’s a failure of the news and social media. If they read about the massive green initiatives, increased corporate and wealth taxes, ending food supply chain greedflation, advancing equity and racial justice, student loan reimbursement, and housing affordability, they may feel differently.
Instead, they think Trump will “shake up the system.” All he did with his last term was roll back safety and environmental regulations on business, and implement a tax break that expired after four years for the low and middle class but remains intact for the wealthy today.
Just because people don't support Biden doesn't mean they're voting for Trump. This is a false dichotomy.
Unfortunately, that’s the nature of US elections. Maybe one day it’ll change, but for now these are the only votes that will carry through the Electoral College.
FWIW I’d love to see us remove the Electoral College, abolish Gerrymandering, and implement ranked-choice voting to introduce more parties to the table.
then they arent really democratic are they
It’s a representative democracy, not a direct democracy. The founders created the Electoral College to assist in elections due to lack of nationwide information on the candidates. That’s clearly not an issue anymore.
yeah, if the parties are putting out only two candidades that people hate, maybe thats not a good idea
The National Committees (DNC and RNC) produce the candidates.
All you Blue MAGA folks pretend like their aren't any candidates with basic human decency running for president. Guess what? I have my choice of three candidates who have at least a bare minimum of human decency. And you have three candidates who support genocide. You make your choice; I'll make mine.
What?
Are you talking about the primaries? I'm like 99.9999% sure they all dropped out. You're stuck with Trump and we're stuck with Biden.
I'm talking about the general
I’m not suggesting you make a different choice than the two. I’m stating that it will not affect US elections in their current structure. You do you.
Scribbling over that section of the ballot is also a distinct choice you have. That would affect the outcome just as much as voting third party.
"Blue MAGA." It's wild how far-right actors have the self-awareness to write "Blueanon" or "Blue MAGA." Cool to see their strategies are working and the term is getting picked up with other groups.
Unfortunately, there are only TWO choices in the 2024 election - you are either voting for democracy or dictatorship - period
When is the democracy supposed to start?
No, you're either voting for genocide or human decency - period.
Genocide AND human decency VS an end to democracy and just not caring about anyone outside the border short of a migrant caravan.
I think you left off the part of the second candidate encouraging more genocide along with ending democracy.
Not encouraging, just not standing in the way of it happening.
no one is promising to end democracy
Didn't one candidate say they would literally be a dictator..."but only on day one." I find it hard to trust anyone who ways they'd be a dictator any amount of time, and then stop. Dictatorship and democracy are polar opposites.
with the rise of executive power from executive orders, every president is a dictator say one, rolling back previous administration policy and implementing their own.
That's not what a dictatorship is. A dictatorship is where one person (the dictator) has almost complete control over the government with few, if any, restrictions. Executive orders can only be within the President's authority, and can also be overturned by Congress or the Supreme Court. To link executive orders to a dictatorship shows a misunderstanding of executive orders, dictatorships, or both.
Also, in the quote of being a "dictator for just one day," executive orders were not mentioned, if I remember correctly. And no democratic President should ever think of themselves as a dictator or wish they were one.
no one is accusing trump of being a knowledgeable statesman.
That was actually you who linked them, not him. And they shouldn't be linked. Executive orders are not a dictatorship. But let's say he meant, even though he's famous for saying what he means with no filter.
Even after campaigning for it, holding the office for 4 years, presumably keeping an eye on his successor for 4 years, and now campaigning for it again? You'd think he'd know the basics of what is a democracy, what is a dictatorship, what executive orders do, and what do the different branches of government roughly do...you know, the basics that were taught in middle school, and elaborated on in high school. These aren't niche laws or obscure cases we're talking about, but what should be common sense to the common man...much more so for someone who's running for the job. Willful ignorance is not an excuse, especially at that level...if that's what this is.
they are literally creating policy by dictate. your pet definition seems crafted to exclude this obvious use of dictate.
Someone who "dictates" is not necessarily a dictator. These are not my "pet definitions" but accepted definitions of what a dictator/dictatorship is in the political sphere. It's called context.
No one in the government should say "I'm going to dictate policy that I have control over, but this policy can be overturned by the other two branches. Thus, I'm a dictator." That's not what that word means. You are trying to use a nonspecific definition out of context to justify defending a wannabe dictator.
Insurrecting against a country because they voted for someone else is a pretty solid promise on its own.
Wait, which candidate in your analysis is the candidate representing human decency?
Jill Stein, Cornel West, De La Cruz
Only one of two people is going to win. It’s about as true of a dichotomy as you can get in politics. Your other option is to throw away your vote, which is the same as not voting.
There are at least six people running. Three are running on the genocide platform, three are running on the human decency platform. It's about as true of a dichotomy as you can get in politics.
Two of those people have a chance at winning. Four of those people have a chance at splitting the vote enough that the other of the two wins.
I don’t like that that’s how our system is. It’s fucked. But that is how our system is.
He's like a dude playing the lotto. "Well either I win or I don't, that's two possible outcomes... 50/50 chance."
One of them is actively aiding an ongoing genocide. You are shilling for them. I hope you sleep well at night
If living in this reality means I’m a shill, then I guess I’m a shill. How much do you want to bet me that someone other than Biden or Trump will win? If you’re willing to bet anything on that, then you’re a damned fool.
I’m sorry that we don’t live in your fantasy world where we actually do have another choice. It sounds nice there. But since we live in the real world, you have two choices. Biden or Trump. Since Trump is actually a fascist who wants to end democracy in the United States, I’ll be voting for Biden, thanks.
Teenagers aren’t well known for having landline phones and/or answering calls from unknown numbers.
Even if this were an accurate take on how modern polls were conducted, teenagers not responding to the pollster doesn't equate to fewer teenagers being willing to vote for Biden. You have to have actual responses to determine that.
So what?
So until polls find a different way to poll the population, they will become more and more unreliable and inaccurate. The polls before the last two elections (2020, 2022) were way off. They’re just going to lose more and more accuracy as more and more gen z and eventually gen alpha vote.
Sauce?
For which part? I assure you that any of my claims are instantly supported by simply placing them in a search engine.
The task of providing sources belongs the person making the statement. Until then, your statement should be considered hyperbole and hearsay.
neat
That's how these people get their data
All the time? No.
When you do something right, it makes headlines for an hour. When something bad happens, the "liberal" news spends months talking about the Biden administration is failing while somehow never talking about the root cause.
To be fair, the problem currently is a terrorist attack has been responded to with genocide and that's still ongoing.
That shouldn't be out of the news cycle, or even the top story spot.
Anything to pressure the president to actually take action to hault a genocide is worth doing. The threat he might lose an election due to low turn out is real. He can change that before November but the longer he fails to take action, the fewer voters will be willing to look past his delay and inaction.
I agree in theory. But here's the problem. We need to pressure the public first. Otherwise it's a lose-lose for Biden. We need the public to demand it like they demanded Ukraine support. Not just from the activists and progressives, but from the centrists and low-information voters. If you don't do that, then his best bet is to keep supporting Israel like it's a surrogate country.
Who's we and who's the public? We are the public. The public is reasonably split on Ukraine funding as they are on Israel being a genocide. Just along different lines.
No one agrees on any of this and that's part of the problem.
"We" is the people who view the situation as genocide. The public is the majority, specifically centrists/moderates/low information voters. Ukraine had overwhelming support from from "the public". That's who you have to convince.
And yes, I agree that is part of the problem.
I would say currently the majority does agree that Israel is engaging in genocide or near genocide behavior at this point, at least in the US. The actions of Israel are doing amazing work of convincing people at the very least.
Television station creates panic, suggest you keep watching TV to stay on top of it.
Tune in at 11 for more
Headline law say no
I feel like polls are on the level of rolling a d20 at this point.
I would guess actual polling error or “polling error” based on the fact that campaigning really hasn’t started in earnest. (Biden is still hiring senior staff in Pennsylvania and Trump hasn’t even opened an office there yet.) We should probably expect polling to be all over the place before late September or so, especially with cross-tabs and the tiny sample sizes. Barely anyone is spending the money for high quality polls yet (except maybe the campaigns but they don’t release those).
It’s obvious that there’s real anger about the Gaza war crimes and inflation (which no president controls but people think they do). But a lot of young people are genuinely undecided. If it’s your first or second presidential election, you inevitably make your mind up later than if you already have a party.
It passes the smell test. Maybe the Democrats should consider taking positions that represent the people.
Are they closer than the positions the GOP offers?
"Hey, we're less awful than the GOP. vote for us"
Is a reason to not vote for the GOP. However, it is not a reason to vote DNC.
"Hey, we care about you and are taking these steps to help you." is a reason to vote DNC.
Moving to the right because it's still less-far-right is going to lose votes. it's that simple.
You'd think they would have figured this out after 2016 yet here we are again in the exact same position for the third time in a row...
Democrat positions:
Republican positions:
Drill baby drill
No abortion
No access to contraception
Christian nation
No diversity or inclusion of minorities
Guns show at the school
Fuck the poor, shoulda pulled up bootstraps
Fuck the homeless, go to jail
Minorities are the problem
Free speech for hate
Gay conversion therapy
Back out of NATO
Fill the privatized prisons with the have-nots
Child labor/marriage
Privatize Medicare/SS
Remove social nets for the poor
Remove EPA
Tax system/market rules designed by private corp
Wipe Palestine off the map
Forfit Ukraine to Russia
So how does that line up for ya both sides bullshit
*Edit bullets for readability
Not saying dems don’t have a better agenda.
(Though I do say they’re incapable or unwilling of doing enough for that agenda,)
The reality is, however, the argument in lemmy comments is rarely this. It’s “Trump bad you dipshit trump supporter”.
As for the aside up above… republicans are definitely winning the long game because democrats are not willing to pull the needle further left, just fight to keep it from going much further right.
Fear mongering and obstructionism are more effective. I cannot disagree.
Fearmongering works?
‘Member 2016?
Democrat: old genocidal ghoul
Republican: old genocidal ghoul
Nah, not really
I agree with everything you said. I don't believe in the party system at all. No issues should be grouped together. No parties. I vote dem since it's the best we can get. I live in a red state so it's not plausible to get anything fixed but I fight where I can. FPTGP and ranked choice are certainly my goals along with repealing citizens United. Getting back to the presidential election fund would be icing on the cake. I'm glad there's an interstate pact to bypass the EC. Last I checked it wouldn't get us to a popular vote without red states but it gets the issue out front and center.
I think there's some confusion about blue resolve to liberal issues. It's not that they don't want to implement them. They are not aggressive enough in the slim instances they do have the actual power to do so (maybe twice in the last 15 yrs by my count) for fear of reprisal. And their ability to convey a clear message or campaign is weak. Also negative messages are much easier to campaign on so they lose there as well. They are still heavily influenced by corporate lobby and some issues will always get buried in the current system.
Maybe stop helping slaughter Palestinians, then you wouldn't have this problem.
FALSE EQUIVALENCY!!! Joe Biden's genocide is a much more humane, you could even say, gentler, genocide than what Trump would do. Trump would be super obnoxious and mean about it. Biden makes it super clear he regrets having to do the genociding. He's even building a little island to deliver coffins by sea for the babies who are starving to death while hundreds of food trucks line up at the border!