No flying machine will ever reach New York from Paris.
One of the Wright brothers said that. It's actually my favorite quote because it always reminds me we have no idea what the fuck we're wrong about.
No flying machine will ever reach New York from Paris.
googles
Interestingly, when he wrote that, it was part of a larger quote saying virtually the same thing that you are, just over a century ago:
Wilbur in the Cairo, Illinois, Bulletin, March 25, 1909
No airship will ever fly from New York to Paris. That seems to me to be impossible. What limits the flight is the motor. No known motor can run at the requisite speed for four days without stopping, and you can’t be sure of finding the proper winds for soaring. The airship will always be a special messenger, never a load-carrier. But the history of civilization has usually shown that every new invention has brought in its train new needs it can satisfy, and so what the airship will eventually be used for is probably what we can least predict at the present.
See? I was wrong.
HUMANS
Thank goodness computers are never wrong. :-P
Hey, they always do exactly as they're told!
Hrm, in that case, now I wonder how they are ever correct!?:-P
As a Software Engineer, I ask myself that question several times per day.
Bc chips are as dumb as rocks, but really really really good at repetition:-).
Easy, think about who decides whether or not they're correct.
Again, humans.
For now... except managers don't want to actually think, yet do want to be in control of even the tiniest aspects of every single fucking thing (see e.g. Boeing planes literally falling out of the sky, against the wishes of the engineers bc the managers figured that this way of skipping maintenance and then covering that truth from federal safety commissioners was "better"... for the sake of their profits ofc), so how soon until their unthinking need to "feel like" they are in control leads them to using computers to control the people, without even those humans who hold the admin rights ever making any conscious decisions?
I suspect that a thinking computer may be correct far more often than an unthinking human.:-D
And thank goodness it's not nearly impossible to convince a computer that it isn't correct when you don't have admin rights.
sudo you're a fucking idiot, computer
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, president of IBM
I cannot stomach much of it, but it is fun to go back and watch older media related to technology - e.g. the six million dollar man has like spinning tape disks, when computers were entire-room affairs.
So he was right, using the definition at that time, though there was also so much potential for more.
Also it is funny to hear them say that technology would literally make the six million dollar man "better", not just "well again" or "he will have side effects but his capabilities will be far above the norm" or some such. One glance at Google these days, or a Boeing plane, does not inspire me to think of the word "better" than what came before even from those exact companies. Technology moves forward, but I am not so sure that the new is always "better" than the old. It was an interesting bias that they had though, during the cold war and after the moon landing.
"We can improve him."
And I believe tape storage hadn't even been invented when Watson said that. It may have even been pre-magnetic tape entirely because I believe he said it before a computer was actually invented (unless you count Babbage's difference engine). It was a prediction of what the world would need if computers existed if I remember correctly.
And it makes total sense, bc the idea of a "PC" hadn't been tried yet, bc the technology simply wasn't yet up to the task. And yeah I think I remember the same thing about that quote, though who knows:-P.
Anyway, it was hard for computers to be wrong about simple arithmetic operations, but they've come a long way since then, and AIs are now wrong more often than not.
Not all older tech are necessarily worse. An LTO-9 tape can also store 18TB of data per tape. It's still sold today and great for archival.
Other cheaper, less error prone tech usually gets mass market penetration. But I am happy that massive storage niche tech is still there.
Yeah tape is niche, but still serves its particular purpose well!:-)
True. 12h to write the whole 18TB makes it a bit impractical for stuff other than backups. ;)
Well, I imagine the write-once, re-write-never part also may limit its applicability too:-). Then again, for a purpose where the data doesn't need to be constantly changing, like storing a TV show or movie, possibly even music if someone wants to listen to albums rather than randomized songs, it could offer a lot of practical utility to many people.
Oh you can totally erase and reuse the tapes. Depending on the tape software you can also rewrite parts or replace older files with incremental updates. It just really takes a while of rewinding. And the noise it makes is kinda retro...
Hehe, I can just imagine that in my mind...wrrr.....:-P
The flight took off from Edwards Air Force Base's 15,000 foot (4,600 m) runway in the Mojave Desert on December 14, 1986, and ended 9 days, 3 minutes and 44 seconds later on December 23, setting a flight endurance record.
the longest aircraft flight distance in history: 25,766 miles (41,466 km)
That's 800 miles (1,400 km) longer than the circumference of the Earth. Humans are a trip.
Plus X-37B has flown round the earth for two and a half years on its longest flight. I know it's not really what he was thinking about as it's launched in space from a rocket in orbit but then that just adds even more to the notion tech advancement can be almost impossible to predict.
Wilbur clearly didn't know about in-flight refueling.
It also makes me wonder if trans-atlantic gliding is a feat that could be feasibly attempted with modern technology.
He also isn't talking about airplanes, but airships. Sure plenty of planes make the journey every day, but zero airships do because they really are quite useless for it. Obviously he was wrong becauae a few airships did end up making Atlantic crossings, but they were slow, cramped, and dangerous compsred to ocean liners.
So context matter, you say. This is revolutionary! But it will never catch on.
At a computer trade show in 1981, Bill Gates supposedly uttered this statement, in defense of the just-introduced IBM PC's 640KB usable RAM limit: "640K ought to be enough for anybody."
That quote was in the context of the 1981 personal computer market, and in that context is correct.
It’s like a game company CEO saying 12GB of video ram is enough in 2024 so we don’t all need an RTX 4090.
Scientists in the 1800s also proclaimed we figured everything out and science was completed.
*1900s. Max Planck famously pondered whether he should pursue physics or music and was told by his professor that Physics was “done except for a few minor details”. Planck then went on to invent quantum physics to screw over students the world over.
One of the Wright brothers said that. It's actually my favorite quote because it always reminds me we have no idea what the fuck we're wrong about.
googles
Interestingly, when he wrote that, it was part of a larger quote saying virtually the same thing that you are, just over a century ago:
See? I was wrong.
HUMANS
Thank goodness computers are never wrong. :-P
Hey, they always do exactly as they're told!
Hrm, in that case, now I wonder how they are ever correct!?:-P
As a Software Engineer, I ask myself that question several times per day.
Bc chips are as dumb as rocks, but really really really good at repetition:-).
Easy, think about who decides whether or not they're correct.
Again, humans.
For now... except managers don't want to actually think, yet do want to be in control of even the tiniest aspects of every single fucking thing (see e.g. Boeing planes literally falling out of the sky, against the wishes of the engineers bc the managers figured that this way of skipping maintenance and then covering that truth from federal safety commissioners was "better"... for the sake of their profits ofc), so how soon until their unthinking need to "feel like" they are in control leads them to using computers to control the people, without even those humans who hold the admin rights ever making any conscious decisions?
I suspect that a thinking computer may be correct far more often than an unthinking human.:-D
And thank goodness it's not nearly impossible to convince a computer that it isn't correct when you don't have admin rights.
sudo you're a fucking idiot, computer
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, president of IBM
I cannot stomach much of it, but it is fun to go back and watch older media related to technology - e.g. the six million dollar man has like spinning tape disks, when computers were entire-room affairs.
So he was right, using the definition at that time, though there was also so much potential for more.
Also it is funny to hear them say that technology would literally make the six million dollar man "better", not just "well again" or "he will have side effects but his capabilities will be far above the norm" or some such. One glance at Google these days, or a Boeing plane, does not inspire me to think of the word "better" than what came before even from those exact companies. Technology moves forward, but I am not so sure that the new is always "better" than the old. It was an interesting bias that they had though, during the cold war and after the moon landing.
"We can improve him."
And I believe tape storage hadn't even been invented when Watson said that. It may have even been pre-magnetic tape entirely because I believe he said it before a computer was actually invented (unless you count Babbage's difference engine). It was a prediction of what the world would need if computers existed if I remember correctly.
And it makes total sense, bc the idea of a "PC" hadn't been tried yet, bc the technology simply wasn't yet up to the task. And yeah I think I remember the same thing about that quote, though who knows:-P.
Anyway, it was hard for computers to be wrong about simple arithmetic operations, but they've come a long way since then, and AIs are now wrong more often than not.
Considering we now have a "CD" that stores 125TB of data ( https://www.livescience.com/technology/electronics/new-petabit-scale-optical-disc-can-store-as-much-information-as-15000-dvds ).
Not all older tech are necessarily worse. An LTO-9 tape can also store 18TB of data per tape. It's still sold today and great for archival.
Other cheaper, less error prone tech usually gets mass market penetration. But I am happy that massive storage niche tech is still there.
Yeah tape is niche, but still serves its particular purpose well!:-)
True. 12h to write the whole 18TB makes it a bit impractical for stuff other than backups. ;)
Well, I imagine the write-once, re-write-never part also may limit its applicability too:-). Then again, for a purpose where the data doesn't need to be constantly changing, like storing a TV show or movie, possibly even music if someone wants to listen to albums rather than randomized songs, it could offer a lot of practical utility to many people.
Oh you can totally erase and reuse the tapes. Depending on the tape software you can also rewrite parts or replace older files with incremental updates. It just really takes a while of rewinding. And the noise it makes is kinda retro...
Hehe, I can just imagine that in my mind...wrrr.....:-P
That's an older one but they are still like that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJX2o1JYgQg
You were wrong, which proves your point correct. Good job being wrong and right at the same time.
I love this response!
It was a very fitting time to be wrong lol
Oh, and to provide numbers:
https://www.distance.to/New-York/Paris
That's 5,837.07 km.
As of the moment, the longest flight by distance:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Atlantic_GlobalFlyer
That's 7.1 times the Paris-to-New-York flight distance.
As for time:
The longest flight by time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rutan_Voyager
That's 800 miles (1,400 km) longer than the circumference of the Earth. Humans are a trip.
Plus X-37B has flown round the earth for two and a half years on its longest flight. I know it's not really what he was thinking about as it's launched in space from a rocket in orbit but then that just adds even more to the notion tech advancement can be almost impossible to predict.
Wilbur clearly didn't know about in-flight refueling.
It also makes me wonder if trans-atlantic gliding is a feat that could be feasibly attempted with modern technology.
He also isn't talking about airplanes, but airships. Sure plenty of planes make the journey every day, but zero airships do because they really are quite useless for it. Obviously he was wrong becauae a few airships did end up making Atlantic crossings, but they were slow, cramped, and dangerous compsred to ocean liners.
So context matter, you say. This is revolutionary! But it will never catch on.
At a computer trade show in 1981, Bill Gates supposedly uttered this statement, in defense of the just-introduced IBM PC's 640KB usable RAM limit: "640K ought to be enough for anybody."
That quote was in the context of the 1981 personal computer market, and in that context is correct.
It’s like a game company CEO saying 12GB of video ram is enough in 2024 so we don’t all need an RTX 4090.
And then Stable Diffusion showed up
I think the context was for computers at the time.
That one is apocryphal if I remember correctly, but even if he did say it, at the time it was pretty much true.
Scientists in the 1800s also proclaimed we figured everything out and science was completed.
*1900s. Max Planck famously pondered whether he should pursue physics or music and was told by his professor that Physics was “done except for a few minor details”. Planck then went on to invent quantum physics to screw over students the world over.
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-56594-6_11
"except for a few minor details". Understatement of the millennium.
lol
Thank you for the correction! That's such a great little story
And 100 years later, in one generation, humans land on the moon.