So... quite honestly this is probably a translation issue and cultural differences.
In China, throughout Chinese history, if a local government body /openly defies/ a greater authority, to the point of defying direct orders regarding the deployment of highly armed and combat capable forces... and you now have a scenario where armed forces loyal to the local government are literally right next to armed forces of the greater authority... and both official governments are claiming they have the right to do what they are doing, and the other does not...
This is functionally nearly always a situation that ends up spiralling into war, and basically the inherent assumption is that the local government should be subservient to the greater government, and they should know that what they are doing is likely to lead to armed conflict, it is likely to escalate, thus functionally when you add together the assumption that the local government should submit and is not, and the proximity of opposed armed agents of the state on both sides... basically this would be viewed as Texas declaring war on the Federal government.
We interpret the situation as, well, Texas didnt declare war because they cant actually do that legally!
In so doing we kind of forget that /thats not how civil conflicts fucking work/.
Basically put another way, if an armed conflict does start here, and then it broadens, and then 10 years later youre reading about it in a history text book...
Is the term civil war going to be used?
Or will we all agree to call it the special military and police action to quell an illegal use of force by rogue and criminal elements within the united states government?
Which of those do you think is going to more easily translate to Mandarin and Cantonese and what not?
EDIT: I am /far, faaaar/ from a fan of the current Chinese government for a great many reasons.
But, it can always be a useful exercise to read how other country's media outlets report on your own country's domestic affairs.
Is there outright propaganda and lies in some instances? Absolutely.
Is that happening in this case?
In my opinion, not really, no.
I personally, as an American living here my whole life, would basically agree that at the very least, what Texas is doing is done with the implied threat of, and known public support for /functionally/ starting what /basically/ amounts to a civil war, by engaging in escalating brinksmanship, seeking other allies (whats it 25 states now are waiting for Abbot to ask them to send their NatGuard to Texas), and both sides are moving combat capable chess pieces on the board in highly public ways.
Sure its not technically a declaration of war or secession, but uh, thats because /technically/ those things are impossible, even though they realistically are not.
My only possible actual quibble here would basically be that eh probably most Americans wouldn't view it as a war or secession attempt until shooting starts and a formal declaration of 'we are forming confederacy 2, this time so we can shot hispanic migrants and form a theocracy instead of uphold slavery of blacks'.
Which... again. A declaration is about /intent/, not necessarily precisely timed with action toward that intent.
Basically, at best, this is a nearly totally unprecedented situation in US History, basically totally unprecedented in a century.
Most Americans suffer from massive latent, unconscious American Exceptionalism across the political spectrum, assuming kinds of status quo type norms that simply are not actually evidenced by both history in general of societies around the world, as well as literally our own.
There are of course many issues where I think generally, the modern culture of China suffers from its own kinds of blinders... but not on this kind of an issue.
Even in this thread we have a comment of basically "yeah right, they wouldnt win in the long run" which both denies the proximal possibility of a civil conflict, but also admits that it could happen, but that itd be /dumb/ if it happened.
As if wars have never been fought for reasons one or even both sides think are dumb, or wars have never been fought when it seems very likely one side would lose.
Remember when nearly everyone thought Russia would never invade Ukraine because it would be dumb, and then he did, and then nearly everyone thought Ukraine would basically be steamrolled, and it wasn't?
if an armed conflict does start here, and then it broadens, and then 10 years later youre reading about it in a history text book...
Is the term civil war going to be used?
Or will we all agree to call it the special military and police action to quell an illegal use of force by rogue and criminal elements within the united states government?
This is a very big if, and really only makes sense as a possibility to people who don't understand how the military is organized in the US.
The group which denied US Border Patrol agents access to Shelby Park was the Texas Army National Guard. While it's true that they have Texas in the name and are mostly recruited locally, all Army National Guard units are components of the US (federal) Army, regardless of which state they are based in. This means that they are part of the executive branch of government under the DoD. They are a US Army unit that is stationed in Texas, not a Texas Army unit that cooperates with the US government. While they can be given orders by their local state governor, they answer to the Chief of Staff of the Army (General Randy A. George) and ultimately to the Commander in Chief (President Joe Biden).
USBP is part of US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which is also part of the executive branch of the US government under the Department of Homeland Security, which again ultimately answers to the president.
So, if an armed conflict did occur here it would genuinely be a civil war. It would mean that a component of the US federal military (DoD) was firing on the staff of a US federal agency (DoHS). At that point it doesn't matter who ordered them to do it, it's literally the federal government shooting at itself.
There is no chance that the commander of the Texas National Guard unit would order their soldiers to fire on federal agents unless they're a complete idiot. They would be immediately ordered to stand down by whoever their superior is in the regular US Army, and then removed from command. Defiance of that would literally mean rebellion within the US Army, and probably open warfare. This is extremely unlikely. They might talk big, but Texas is in no way prepared to start a conflict with the US at large.
The comparison with Ukraine is asinine.
Yes, I am aware of all of this.
Here's the crux of your argument:
There is no chance that the commander of the Texas National Guard unit would order their soldiers to fire on federal agents unless they're a complete idiot.
So uh, this can't happen because it would be dumb if it did.
I agree it would be dumb if it happened.
Doesn't mean it can't.
Doesn't mean the situation is not a powder keg, doesn't mean that if basically one exceptionally stupid command, conflicting with a far less stupid command from another authority, is acted on, it could escalate rapidly.
Again, these kinds of /which authority will be recognized in case of conflicting commands, by which individual commanders and sometimes even soldiers/ are a defining element of civil conflicts around the world throughout history, and they are simply not predictable at an individual basis when in an extremely polarized, tense and complex situation.
Your argument is basically just: this would be dumb if it happened, so its unlikely/impossible.
Again, yep, itd be dumb.
Again, viewed through a lense of history of civil conflicts, especially a Chinese lense, it actually certainly qualifies as a very obvious situation to be highly concerned about.
The comparison with Ukraine and Russia was not chosen because the similarities of the situation leading up to armed conflict, but simply to illustrate that a lot of people can believe an armed conflict would not happen because it would be dumb if it did, and also to provide an example that sometimes, in war, surprises can happen that astound even the experts, as well as the general public.
Doesn't mean the situation is not a powder keg, doesn't mean that if basically one exceptionally stupid command, conflicting with a far less stupid command from another authority, is acted on, it could escalate rapidly.
I get your cynicism, but hasn't this kinda been the global situation since nuclear armament? And yet here we are nearly a century later. We may be pretty dumb as a species, but we're surprisingly good at not intentionally setting off those powder kegs when were standing right next to them.
I dont really know what to say other than, no, historically we are very, very good at accidentally /as well as intentionally/ setting off metaphorical powder kegs, in situations where large segments of the population believes in the inherent stability of society, either ignorant of or in spite of actual history.
Specifically in regards to cold war era nuclear weapons... beyond the cuban missile crisis having, very, very easily gone out of control, take some time and look up the numerous instances where, due to basically either an overzealous command being issued, or a rational decision being made with imperfect information led to an actual order to use a nuclear weapon that was actually stymied by a single individual disobeying a direct command.
Or look at the numerous instances that basically a mechanical failure, intelligence failure, maintenance failure, something like that, led to a nuclear weapon basically being accidentally used, where it was basically down to dumb luck that further failures, or heroic actions from unsung heroes, prevented a nuclear blast from going off that could have easily spiraled into a full fledged nuclear exchange.
But more to the actual point of discussion: Saying that nukes exist and we have not obliterated each other yet, so that implies that a totally different scenario with totally different relevant factors at play is not likely to result in a mass armed civil conflict of some kind... thats basically not even a useful analogy.
EDIT: also for what its worth, im not the one who downvoted you. I generally only downvote people who are extremely abusive or very obviously unable to actually understand the words people say and then also refuse to understand them when explained another way, things like that, at least in the context of fairly serious and complex topic like this.
I actually think its more important that people be able to have a genuine discussion involving disagreement, and also for others to view such discussions, than it is to be angry and downvote some words i dont agree with, but seem to be written in good faith.
THANK YOU.
Spot on.
Totally off topic but... dear god... HotDogFingies?
Thats like... NuggieMuncher 9000 or NoWaifuMeCryfu.
Best of luck on the intermet, uh, fren.
I'm a 34 year old woman. I don't take myself very seriously.
Welp, Im a 34 year old man whose misspent and regretable couple of youthful years on 4chan basically scarred me for fucking life.
And I fell into the age old 4chanesque assumption that you were another current or former anon.
At least I can be honest about it, I guess.
embarrassing
I mean, that's a kind of stereotypical view of China's history. There absolutely was just as much dysfunction and disunity over there as in Europe. Feudal societies gonna feudal.
If you read the article, it's has more to do with Chinese people not understanding US politics for obvious reasons, and the Chinese government being somewhat okay with errors that make the US look bad.
Popular Chinese outlets have been suggesting that events in Texas have led to deep divisions in the US widening to a point where unrest has become a stark reality.
this part aint a lie
Kinda is.
The Texas shit is a result of decades old deep divisions, not the cause of.
If its anything like my country, these things always end up being mutually reinforcing.
Media messaging has made the idea of civil war more believable, as Chinese state media have regularly suggested that political divisions in the US are now so polarised that the country has reached the brink of internal conflict.
And they are not far off. Every political issue has become a divider. There is no more civil discourse in discussion. No more shared unity between differences of opinion.
All of this greatly exasperated by social media. All the while the 1 % running both the Democrats and Republicans are lining their pockets even more.
To be entirely fair, what civil discourse can you have around "We want to make bloodsport of murdering these people." vs "Maybe just let people have basic rights."
They wish. Texas would crumble faster than their power grid on a chilly day.
We interpret the situation as, well, Texas didnt declare war because they cant actually do that legally!
I am beyond tired of this thoughtless take. "You can't murder me, that's illegal!" "You can't harass me for being homosexual, that's illegal!" "You can't slam me into the ground and arrest me for nothing, that's illegal!" Just. Fucking. Watch them. It was illegal the first time they did it too.
They can't do it only if something stops them, saying "You can't do that because it's illegal" doesn't stop them. Indeed, repeating that mantra over and over while taking no action to the effect positively emboldens them.
There is no chance that the commander of the Texas National Guard unit would order their soldiers to fire on federal agents unless they’re a complete idiot.
This is just a lack of imagination. You've never seen or heard it before, therefore it's impossible? No. I believe you'll find on a careful examination of available evidence that the military is fairly split along party lines, including command structures. It's only idiotic if the rebellion doesn't work.
I am beyond tired of this thoughtless take. “You can’t murder me, that’s illegal!” “You can’t harass me for being homosexual, that’s illegal!” “You can’t slam me into the ground and arrest me for nothing, that’s illegal!” Just. Fucking. Watch them. It was illegal the first time they did it too.
My #1 issue with the Democrats. I'm not sure how they talk about unprecedented times so much without actually acting on it.
Of course they could fire on civilians. This ain't new folks.
Oh it's spread to China? Misinformation on the border has been spreading across the red parts of America for the better part of a decade.
Let's not wipe the spot from our neighbors eye until we remove the stick from our own.
Or, hot take, we use both hands to wipe spit out of everyone's eyes. Hate this bullshit where people imply you can only care about one thing at a time.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Amid the escalating border standoff between Texas and the White House over illegal immigration, misinformation has spread in China that the Lone Star state has officially declared war to secede from the US.
Popular Chinese outlets have been suggesting that events in Texas have led to deep divisions in the US widening to a point where unrest has become a stark reality.
More than 6.3m migrants have crossed into the US illegally since the beginning of 2021 - record highs that have intensified a standoff between President Joe Biden and Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
As part of his Operation Lone Star, Mr Abbott has sought to block or deter entry into his state, including by installing about 30 miles (48km) of razor wire barriers along the city of Eagle Pass.
A Voice of America journalist Wenhao, who specialises in Chinese online disinformation, posted on X that the "biggest US related news on China's internet for the past few days is Texas governor declaring war with the federal government, which did not happen in reality".
Social media users in China on Friday, for example, were able to read reports that Florida's Republican governor Ron DeSantis is sending up to 1,000 members of the National Guard to Texas.
The original article contains 678 words, the summary contains 206 words. Saved 70%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
How the hell does China give a shit?
Edit: sheesh, I’m sorry for not knowing that they give a damn.
let's see, the last time the US went to war with itself, in the age of railroads, it turned the country into a global superpower.. if we do it again in the age of AI and fusion, i figure the rest of the galaxy will be in play..
You are right in one thing. In an all out war, some bits of Texas will reach space.
So... quite honestly this is probably a translation issue and cultural differences.
In China, throughout Chinese history, if a local government body /openly defies/ a greater authority, to the point of defying direct orders regarding the deployment of highly armed and combat capable forces... and you now have a scenario where armed forces loyal to the local government are literally right next to armed forces of the greater authority... and both official governments are claiming they have the right to do what they are doing, and the other does not...
This is functionally nearly always a situation that ends up spiralling into war, and basically the inherent assumption is that the local government should be subservient to the greater government, and they should know that what they are doing is likely to lead to armed conflict, it is likely to escalate, thus functionally when you add together the assumption that the local government should submit and is not, and the proximity of opposed armed agents of the state on both sides... basically this would be viewed as Texas declaring war on the Federal government.
We interpret the situation as, well, Texas didnt declare war because they cant actually do that legally!
In so doing we kind of forget that /thats not how civil conflicts fucking work/.
Basically put another way, if an armed conflict does start here, and then it broadens, and then 10 years later youre reading about it in a history text book...
Is the term civil war going to be used?
Or will we all agree to call it the special military and police action to quell an illegal use of force by rogue and criminal elements within the united states government?
Which of those do you think is going to more easily translate to Mandarin and Cantonese and what not?
EDIT: I am /far, faaaar/ from a fan of the current Chinese government for a great many reasons.
But, it can always be a useful exercise to read how other country's media outlets report on your own country's domestic affairs.
Is there outright propaganda and lies in some instances? Absolutely.
Is that happening in this case?
In my opinion, not really, no.
I personally, as an American living here my whole life, would basically agree that at the very least, what Texas is doing is done with the implied threat of, and known public support for /functionally/ starting what /basically/ amounts to a civil war, by engaging in escalating brinksmanship, seeking other allies (whats it 25 states now are waiting for Abbot to ask them to send their NatGuard to Texas), and both sides are moving combat capable chess pieces on the board in highly public ways.
Sure its not technically a declaration of war or secession, but uh, thats because /technically/ those things are impossible, even though they realistically are not.
My only possible actual quibble here would basically be that eh probably most Americans wouldn't view it as a war or secession attempt until shooting starts and a formal declaration of 'we are forming confederacy 2, this time so we can shot hispanic migrants and form a theocracy instead of uphold slavery of blacks'.
Which... again. A declaration is about /intent/, not necessarily precisely timed with action toward that intent.
Basically, at best, this is a nearly totally unprecedented situation in US History, basically totally unprecedented in a century.
Most Americans suffer from massive latent, unconscious American Exceptionalism across the political spectrum, assuming kinds of status quo type norms that simply are not actually evidenced by both history in general of societies around the world, as well as literally our own.
There are of course many issues where I think generally, the modern culture of China suffers from its own kinds of blinders... but not on this kind of an issue.
Even in this thread we have a comment of basically "yeah right, they wouldnt win in the long run" which both denies the proximal possibility of a civil conflict, but also admits that it could happen, but that itd be /dumb/ if it happened.
As if wars have never been fought for reasons one or even both sides think are dumb, or wars have never been fought when it seems very likely one side would lose.
Remember when nearly everyone thought Russia would never invade Ukraine because it would be dumb, and then he did, and then nearly everyone thought Ukraine would basically be steamrolled, and it wasn't?
This is a very big if, and really only makes sense as a possibility to people who don't understand how the military is organized in the US.
The group which denied US Border Patrol agents access to Shelby Park was the Texas Army National Guard. While it's true that they have Texas in the name and are mostly recruited locally, all Army National Guard units are components of the US (federal) Army, regardless of which state they are based in. This means that they are part of the executive branch of government under the DoD. They are a US Army unit that is stationed in Texas, not a Texas Army unit that cooperates with the US government. While they can be given orders by their local state governor, they answer to the Chief of Staff of the Army (General Randy A. George) and ultimately to the Commander in Chief (President Joe Biden).
USBP is part of US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which is also part of the executive branch of the US government under the Department of Homeland Security, which again ultimately answers to the president.
So, if an armed conflict did occur here it would genuinely be a civil war. It would mean that a component of the US federal military (DoD) was firing on the staff of a US federal agency (DoHS). At that point it doesn't matter who ordered them to do it, it's literally the federal government shooting at itself.
There is no chance that the commander of the Texas National Guard unit would order their soldiers to fire on federal agents unless they're a complete idiot. They would be immediately ordered to stand down by whoever their superior is in the regular US Army, and then removed from command. Defiance of that would literally mean rebellion within the US Army, and probably open warfare. This is extremely unlikely. They might talk big, but Texas is in no way prepared to start a conflict with the US at large.
The comparison with Ukraine is asinine.
Yes, I am aware of all of this.
Here's the crux of your argument:
So uh, this can't happen because it would be dumb if it did.
I agree it would be dumb if it happened.
Doesn't mean it can't.
Doesn't mean the situation is not a powder keg, doesn't mean that if basically one exceptionally stupid command, conflicting with a far less stupid command from another authority, is acted on, it could escalate rapidly.
Again, these kinds of /which authority will be recognized in case of conflicting commands, by which individual commanders and sometimes even soldiers/ are a defining element of civil conflicts around the world throughout history, and they are simply not predictable at an individual basis when in an extremely polarized, tense and complex situation.
Your argument is basically just: this would be dumb if it happened, so its unlikely/impossible.
Again, yep, itd be dumb.
Again, viewed through a lense of history of civil conflicts, especially a Chinese lense, it actually certainly qualifies as a very obvious situation to be highly concerned about.
The comparison with Ukraine and Russia was not chosen because the similarities of the situation leading up to armed conflict, but simply to illustrate that a lot of people can believe an armed conflict would not happen because it would be dumb if it did, and also to provide an example that sometimes, in war, surprises can happen that astound even the experts, as well as the general public.
I get your cynicism, but hasn't this kinda been the global situation since nuclear armament? And yet here we are nearly a century later. We may be pretty dumb as a species, but we're surprisingly good at not intentionally setting off those powder kegs when were standing right next to them.
I dont really know what to say other than, no, historically we are very, very good at accidentally /as well as intentionally/ setting off metaphorical powder kegs, in situations where large segments of the population believes in the inherent stability of society, either ignorant of or in spite of actual history.
Specifically in regards to cold war era nuclear weapons... beyond the cuban missile crisis having, very, very easily gone out of control, take some time and look up the numerous instances where, due to basically either an overzealous command being issued, or a rational decision being made with imperfect information led to an actual order to use a nuclear weapon that was actually stymied by a single individual disobeying a direct command.
Or look at the numerous instances that basically a mechanical failure, intelligence failure, maintenance failure, something like that, led to a nuclear weapon basically being accidentally used, where it was basically down to dumb luck that further failures, or heroic actions from unsung heroes, prevented a nuclear blast from going off that could have easily spiraled into a full fledged nuclear exchange.
But more to the actual point of discussion: Saying that nukes exist and we have not obliterated each other yet, so that implies that a totally different scenario with totally different relevant factors at play is not likely to result in a mass armed civil conflict of some kind... thats basically not even a useful analogy.
EDIT: also for what its worth, im not the one who downvoted you. I generally only downvote people who are extremely abusive or very obviously unable to actually understand the words people say and then also refuse to understand them when explained another way, things like that, at least in the context of fairly serious and complex topic like this.
I actually think its more important that people be able to have a genuine discussion involving disagreement, and also for others to view such discussions, than it is to be angry and downvote some words i dont agree with, but seem to be written in good faith.
THANK YOU.
Spot on.
Totally off topic but... dear god... HotDogFingies?
Thats like... NuggieMuncher 9000 or NoWaifuMeCryfu.
Best of luck on the intermet, uh, fren.
I'm a 34 year old woman. I don't take myself very seriously.
Welp, Im a 34 year old man whose misspent and regretable couple of youthful years on 4chan basically scarred me for fucking life.
And I fell into the age old 4chanesque assumption that you were another current or former anon.
At least I can be honest about it, I guess.
embarrassing
I mean, that's a kind of stereotypical view of China's history. There absolutely was just as much dysfunction and disunity over there as in Europe. Feudal societies gonna feudal.
If you read the article, it's has more to do with Chinese people not understanding US politics for obvious reasons, and the Chinese government being somewhat okay with errors that make the US look bad.
this part aint a lie
Kinda is.
The Texas shit is a result of decades old deep divisions, not the cause of.
If its anything like my country, these things always end up being mutually reinforcing.
And they are not far off. Every political issue has become a divider. There is no more civil discourse in discussion. No more shared unity between differences of opinion.
All of this greatly exasperated by social media. All the while the 1 % running both the Democrats and Republicans are lining their pockets even more.
To be entirely fair, what civil discourse can you have around "We want to make bloodsport of murdering these people." vs "Maybe just let people have basic rights."
They wish. Texas would crumble faster than their power grid on a chilly day.
I am beyond tired of this thoughtless take. "You can't murder me, that's illegal!" "You can't harass me for being homosexual, that's illegal!" "You can't slam me into the ground and arrest me for nothing, that's illegal!" Just. Fucking. Watch them. It was illegal the first time they did it too.
They can't do it only if something stops them, saying "You can't do that because it's illegal" doesn't stop them. Indeed, repeating that mantra over and over while taking no action to the effect positively emboldens them.
This is just a lack of imagination. You've never seen or heard it before, therefore it's impossible? No. I believe you'll find on a careful examination of available evidence that the military is fairly split along party lines, including command structures. It's only idiotic if the rebellion doesn't work.
My #1 issue with the Democrats. I'm not sure how they talk about unprecedented times so much without actually acting on it.
Of course they could fire on civilians. This ain't new folks.
Tin soldiers and Nixon coming
We're finally on our own
This summer I hear the drumming
Four dead in Ohio
Gotta get down to it
Soldiers are cutting us down
Should have been done long ago
What if you knew her
And found her dead on the ground
How can you run when you know?
(Funny anecdote, step-mom was a student at Kent State and was on campus. She had no idea the shooting was happening.)
Oh it's spread to China? Misinformation on the border has been spreading across the red parts of America for the better part of a decade.
Let's not wipe the spot from our neighbors eye until we remove the stick from our own.
Or, hot take, we use both hands to wipe spit out of everyone's eyes. Hate this bullshit where people imply you can only care about one thing at a time.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Amid the escalating border standoff between Texas and the White House over illegal immigration, misinformation has spread in China that the Lone Star state has officially declared war to secede from the US.
Popular Chinese outlets have been suggesting that events in Texas have led to deep divisions in the US widening to a point where unrest has become a stark reality.
More than 6.3m migrants have crossed into the US illegally since the beginning of 2021 - record highs that have intensified a standoff between President Joe Biden and Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
As part of his Operation Lone Star, Mr Abbott has sought to block or deter entry into his state, including by installing about 30 miles (48km) of razor wire barriers along the city of Eagle Pass.
A Voice of America journalist Wenhao, who specialises in Chinese online disinformation, posted on X that the "biggest US related news on China's internet for the past few days is Texas governor declaring war with the federal government, which did not happen in reality".
Social media users in China on Friday, for example, were able to read reports that Florida's Republican governor Ron DeSantis is sending up to 1,000 members of the National Guard to Texas.
The original article contains 678 words, the summary contains 206 words. Saved 70%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!
How the hell does China give a shit?
Edit: sheesh, I’m sorry for not knowing that they give a damn.
You wouldn't care about a civil war in China?
The US showing any sort of internal strife is Viagra for their (forced) "unity" boners.
their government is a bunch of trolls
let's see, the last time the US went to war with itself, in the age of railroads, it turned the country into a global superpower.. if we do it again in the age of AI and fusion, i figure the rest of the galaxy will be in play..
You are right in one thing. In an all out war, some bits of Texas will reach space.