Russian Railway networks facing "imminent collapse": report

db0@lemmy.dbzer0.com to World News@lemmy.world – 224 points – Russian Railway networks facing "imminent collapse": report
newsweek.com

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/25545288

Russian Railway networks facing "imminent collapse": report

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source for that claim is igor sushko, ignore everything that this clown says, it's waste of time to pay attention to his noise

Yeah... And the second source cited in article, VChK-OGPU "outlet" is an anonymous channel in Telegram, that published information from "an anonymous source". Doesn't sound trustworthy.

Can you link me to some info about this person and why they're a clown?

He's a Pro-Ukrainian Mil-blogger which at first blush would seem to suggest he's a good guy, but, one of the first things that comes up when searching the name is him claiming Russia was planning on attacking Japan (a country which has a defence pact with the US) in '21 which strains his credulity credibility.

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he made loads of wild bullshit claims, all without evidence, such as that putin has terminal cancer, or reports of Ukrainians using weapons that were delivered only months to year later

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Are you claiming Newsweek is not reputable? I bet you also think Fox News is fake news. Or New^s York Times is clickbait. News is right there in the title, game over. /s

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Board gamers everywhere are saddened by this news

Railways are actually super important though. They can transport more cargo than any other means. Especially heavy stuff like artillery guns and armored vehicles. It doesn't matter if you have 10,000 Artillery guns, if you can't get them to the front.

I... don't think many people around here want more Russian artillery guns at the front...

Railways are actually super important though. They can transport more cargo than any other means.

Cargo ships would like to have a word with you.

The large cargo ships famously need large amounts of water. For getting material to the Frontlines it's either rail or road.

Okay, but I wasn't discussing or quoting you on anything relating to war material. Just your assertion about cargo in general!

Also...

The large cargo ships famously need large amounts of water.

Sounds like you haven't heard about viking cargo ships on logs!

Russia doesn't really have an extensive road system, to those unfamiliar. The rail system does the work a highway system would in America, so if this is true and it starts having massive outages things will get very dire very fast.

What do ball bearings have to do with railroads, and why can't they buy them from China?

Oh I like this topic! Fun fact, Ball Bearings are actually a SUPER important little thing and a major hallmark component of the industrial revolution. You need to be able to make really good ball bearings in order to make a rotating joint that's just decent, and churning out perfect little spheres by the tens of thousands was one of the first tests of the modern world's capacity to make things in industrial quantity.

Basically, a standard rotating joint (simplified) has an inner metal band, eight ball bearings equally spaced around the inner metal band, and an outer metal band that traps all the ball bearings between it and the inner metal band. This means that the two bands can be rotated with incredibly low friction and relatively low wear. This is used in basically every machine with moving parts, and trains absolutely fit that criteria.

But it's definitely not operated with zero wear, especially in machines that are constantly operated and weigh a lot, like trains. Ball Bearings can and will wear down during operation and need to be replaced semi-frequently.

As for buying them from China... I would assume that's totally possible, but China might not have enough stock, or they could be trying to leverage their position to sell the ball bearings at a high markup since Russia doesn't have the ability to buy elsewhere.

The Chinese ones are just malteasers painted silver

I've actually recently ordered a pair from Aliexpress! My vacuum brush has one inside and it became unsealed. All the grease inside got replaced with hair. So I got a replacement from Aliexpress, and it's both sealed properly and with enough precision for my vacuum to operate properly. So the takeaway is they don't make maltesers this small.

A ball bearing in a vaccum cleaner is a bit different from one on a trains axles...

A LOT of devices with moving parts, especially heavy ones, rely on ball bearings. As for the second part of your question, I just don’t know.

You could, it, ball bearings are a thing that frequently high precision, both in the metallurgy and in the machining and hardening.

And trains require that high precision. Keep in mind depending on where it’s at, that bearing might be getting exposed to high temperatures, heavy loads, and lots of friction. They may be custom diameters and are ordered with some really tight tolerances.

These particular bearings aren’t just found on Amazon and shipped the next day. China may not have the capacity to meet the demand (and it is a strategic resource, so they may not want to anyhow.)

Even then, they’re not the kind of ally who just bails out your national economy with out a quo to go with that quid, if you know what I mean. (My assumption is that China is backing Russia to turn them into a vassal state, like North Korea. Or get concessions on their disputed borders, etc.)

Bearings for rolling stock are actually relatively hard to come by, and there are only a few countries that even produce the two different steel alloys they are made from.

Ten companies in the world manufacture 75% of the bearings used in rail. With like 5 of them being located in Japan, and the rest in the US, Germany, and I believe Sweden. China only produces about 20% of bearings used in rail, but they are pretty much all for domestic use, as they are still expanding their network.

Couldn't they just use journal bearings? I think the majority of American rolling stock still uses journal bearings.

That's mainly because America mostly moves freight via trucks, and thus has very outdated rolling stock. It's not unusual to see freight chassis that are 50 plus years old.

Russia on the other hand moves the majority of their freight via rail, and like most countries utilize tapered roller bearings for their trains. This allows them to carry a lot more weight, and the bearings last nearly 3x as long.

I'm not quite sure what would be harder, to import new bearings, build a production line from the ground up for bearings, or retrofit all their rolling stock with outdated technology.

Each choice is going to be expensive and extremely time consuming.

Ah yes, the third year of imminent Russian collapse.

Russia is shit at pretty much everything that they do except for their specialties such as war crimes and FAS. They will lose the war and they won’t have a minute of happiness for the next century like they didn’t for the last few.

Reality is already laughing at them, there is no need to overblow it.

Then we’ll find that Russia can function just fine in a collapsed state. Not for any measure of human wellbeing, though as they say, never underestimate the Russian people’s capacity for suffering. It’ll be a miserable, decrepit orc kingdom, but will still be able to do a lot of damage with just the blunt force of its mass.

"And then it got worse" is practically the Russian national motto.